UFC Fight Night: Teixeira a live dog versus hometown hero Gustafsson?

What: UFC Fight Night, Gustafsson vs. Teixeira

Where: Stockholm, Sweden

When: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (Main Card), 11 a.m. prelims

TV: FS1

Odds: Gustafsson (-300), Teixeira (+220)

Odds courtesy of Stratosphere sportsbook

This Sunday, from Stockholm, we have a key fight in the Light Heavyweight division between Sweden's own Alexander Gustafsson and Glover Teixeira.

Gustafsson -- currently the UFC's top-ranked Light Heavyweight contender -- is a -300 favorite to defeat Teixeira, who gets +220 as the underdog.

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Gustafsson's best performance was in September 2013, when he took the great Jon Jones through five tough rounds only to come out on the short end of a controversial unanimous decision.

Since then, Gustafsson has split four fights. He had a real good showing in October 2015, losing a split decision to current champion Daniel Cormier. Gustafsson won his most recent fight last September, taking a unanimous decision against overmatched Jan Blachowicz.

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Teixeira has won four of his last five fights, the loss coming by KO to Anthony Johnson. Teixeira just got caught and was finished in 13 seconds of the first round.

For handicapping purposes, unless they happen frequently, those are the kind of losses I tend to throw out.

This fight figures to play out as a standup battle, with Gustafsson preferring to keep the fight at range whereas Teixeira would like to keep this fight on the inside.

Teixeira has the better power in his hands but Gustafsson gets the edge on kicking power.

Gustafsson will need to keep the fight at range for his kicks to be effective. Look for Teixeira to close the distance and force Gustafsson into more of a punching battle.

Fighting in his home country of Sweden surely will give Gustafsson a lift. But I don't think the current betting line truly reflects each fighter's chance of winning.

Remember, Gustafsson was finished in the first round by Anthony Johnson when fighting in Stockholm, Sweden in 2015.

This figures to be a real tough fight and probably will go the distance. I see it as really close, which means I'm backing the dog at a very attractive price.

Pick: Teixeira (+220)

2017 record: 11-12 (-1 unit)