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    UFC Fight Night: Is Waterson a live underdog against VanZant?

    Hugh Citron, who covers MMA for SportsLine, takes a look at Saturday night's UFC card, which features a women's strawweight bout and a men's welterweight fight between two young prospects. Here is his analysis and betting recommendations for the fights.

     

    What: UFC Fight Night, Paige VanZant vs. Michelle Waterson

    Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento

    When: 8 p.m. Saturday

    TV: FOX

    Odds: VanZant (-130), Waterson (even)

    Odds courtesy of Stratosphere Sportsbook

    UFC Fight Night on Saturday features a women's strawweight main event between the popular Paige VanZant and former Invicta FC atomweight champion Michelle Waterson.

    The Sacramento card also features a compelling matchup between welterweight young guns Sage Northcutt and Mickey Gall.

    Because the women's divisions -- especially the strawweight division -- are changing rapidly, it makes little sense to compare fighters wins and losses or look for similar opponents.

    This fight comes down to where the fight will take place. For VanZant to win, she needs to keep the fight in close or take it to the ground, where she has a substantial advantage in the wrestling game.

    Waterson, who has a karate and Muay Thai background, will clearly want to keep this fight on the feet, where she has a significant advantage in a striking game.

    Another advantage Waterson may have should the fight go to the ground is she has a decent Jiu-Jitsu game, and she could catch VanZant with a submission.

    VanZant, clearly the more popular fighter, is probably being over-valued here as Waterson seems to have the better all-around MMA game.

    Look for Waterson to keep this fight at range and pick apart VanZant with her superior striking game and get the win at even money Saturday night.

    Pick: Waterson (even)

    Welterweights: Mickey Gall (-115) vs. Sage Northcutt (-115)

    A Welterweight fight between two up-and-comers in Sage Northcutt and Mickey Gall could prove to be the most entertaining bout on the card.

    This fight is a pick'em, which kind of surprises me considering even though Northcutt is only 20 years old, he has a lot more experience than Gall.

    Northcutt's only loss in his nine-fight career was against Bryan Barberena, who was a late replacement and Northcutt only had just eight days to prepare for him.

    Gall, who is undefeated in three fights, clearly will need to do more in this bout than he had to in his last fight against totally overmatched former pro wrestler CM Punk, who made his much-publicized UFC debut by getting slaughtered by Gall in an ugly first-round submission.

    This should be a real action-packed fight between two young and hungry fighters, but I have to go with the more experienced fighter at such a low price.

    Pick: Northcutt (-115) 

    Hugh Citron
    Hugh CitronMMA Expert

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