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    Tyreek Hill traded to Dolphins: Using advanced analytics to determine Fantasy impact on Patrick Mahomes, Jaylen Waddle and more

    Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs provides an in-depth analytical breakdown of the Fantasy outlook for Tyreek Hill as a member of the Dolphins, as well as how his move impacts the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle and more.

    Only Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp have scored more Fantasy points at the WR position than Tyreek Hill over the past two seasons. Over the past five, only Adams stands ahead of the former Chiefs wideout. Whether catching passes from Patrick Mahomes or Alex Smith, Hill has established himself as one of this generation's most electric playmakers at the WR position.

    With news that Hill was traded to the Miami Dolphins in exchange for multiple draft picks, we'll get an answer to just how much his Fantasy value was boosted by such favorable circumstances during his time as a member of the Kansas City Chiefs. Hill's days as a perennial top-three Fantasy pick at the WR position may be over -- it's entirely possible that the downgraded offensive environment may be enough to move him behind the likes of Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and Davante Adams in many projection models. A case could also be made for Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, or CeeDee Lamb to move ahead of Hill in rankings after the blockbuster trade.

    Of course, with a trade involving a player of Hill's magnitude, he isn't the only one whose Fantasy value will be drastically affected.

    2021 was the first season in which Hill out-targeted Travis Kelce -- the star wideout was targeted a career-high 159 times and leaves behind a massive 25 percent target share and 35 percent air yardage share. The recently signed JuJu Smith-Schuster is sure to soak up some of those targets, but his route tree really doesn't bear any resemblance to Hill's. It seems likely that the Chiefs will another receiver in free agency or the NFL Draft -- field-stretcher Marquez Valdes-Scantling is in KC for a visit -- until there is more clarity on how Patrick Mahomes' arsenal will look for 2022, there's really no point in speculating on the Fantasy implications of Hill's absence in Kansas City.

    We absolutely can speculate on the Fantasy implications of Hill's addition to the Miami Dolphins roster, though.

    After a wildly impressive rookie campaign, Jaylen Waddle was being drafted as a top-15 Fantasy WR for the 2022 season. Both he and Mike Gesicki finished as top-15 Fantasy options at their position in PPR formats in 2021, but it may be difficult for them to repeat such a performance after Miami's investment in Hill.

    If Hill, Waddle, and Gesicki all are to live up to their Fantasy draft capital, it will require significant improvement from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in Year 3. In addition to struggling to remain on the field during his first two pro seasons, Tagovailoa has shown little reason to believe that he is anything more than a league-average QB. Among 32 quarterbacks with at least 500 attempts over the past two seasons, Tagovailoa ranks 24th in passer rating, 27th in yards per attempt, and 23rd in touchdown-to-interception ratio.

    Those numbers aren't encouraging, and things only get worse when digging into Tagovailoa's willingness and ability to deliver the deep ball over his first two pro seasons. Should Fantasy managers be concerned about Hill's fit with Tagovailoa, or is the former fifth overall pick ready to make a leap forward in Year 3?

    How is Tyreek Hill's Fantasy outlook impacted by the move to Miami? And what does his arrival mean for Jaylen Waddle and the rest of the Dolphins pass-catchers? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Jacob Gibbs' advanced analytical breakdown of the Tyreek Hill trade, all from an analytics-driven expert who has crushed it in rankings accuracy long-term!

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    Jacob Gibbs
    Jacob GibbsDFS Guru

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