Game 3 of the Western Conference semifinals has the No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder taking on the No. 5 seed Dallas Mavericks on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center in Dallas. The Mavericks beat the Thunder 119-110 on Thursday. SportsLine consensus lists Dallas as the 2.5-point favorite, while the over/under for total points scored is 218 (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our NBA odds page). 

Before you make any Thunder vs. Mavericks picks, you NEED to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters the conference semifinals in the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 94-61 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following has seen HUGE returns!

The model knows Dallas point guard Luka Doncic is listed as questionable with a right knee sprain and left ankle soreness. Despite his ailments, Doncic still played 41 minutes in Thursday's win, scoring 29 points and grabbing 10 rebounds. He has five double-doubles and one triple-double in the postseason. In a 116-111 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 4 of their first-round series, he scored 29 points, while grabbing 10 rebounds and dishing out 10 assists.

The model also knows point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had the hot hand for Oklahoma City in Thursday's loss, scoring 33 points, grabbing 12 rebounds and dishing out eight assists in 41 minutes. He has scored 24 or more points in all eight playoff games, and registered a pair of double-doubles. In six postseason starts, he is averaging 28.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.2 blocks in 38.3 minutes. He is connecting on 48% of his field goals and 78.8% of his free throws.

The model has simulated Thunder vs. Mavericks 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations!

Who wins Thunder vs. Mavericks, and which side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the spread you should be all over, all from the model on a 94-61 roll on top-rated NBA picks!