The case for overall RB1 -- Who has the most Fantasy football upside?

Christian McCaffrey put up an unprecedented 471.2 PPR points in 2019, which fell just 10 PPR points shy of LaDainian Tomlinson's NFL record for most Fantasy points in a season. He broke his own record for most RB catches in a season, hauling in 109 passes on his way to a true outlier Fantasy season.

Finding "the next Christian McCaffrey" is a misnomer in itself. There has been only one back in the history of the NFL to top McCaffrey's 2019 Fantasy performance, and he had to score an absurd 31 touchdowns to do so.

The objective here isn't to pinpoint which running back will score 450-plus Fantasy points in 2020, because it's unlikely that any of them will. Rather, this is an attempt to highlight which running backs realistically have the upside to put together a Fantasy RB1 season if things break their way.

You'll notice some top-end backs such as Ezekiel Elliott, Josh Jacobs, and Aaron Jones were left off this list. Despite Zeke and Jones finishing second and third in RB Fantasy scoring behind CMC in 2019, neither has the top-end range of outcomes projection to contend for the RB1 spot, barring something truly random like injuries to teammates or an unprecedented touchdown output.

To have RB1 upside, the targets MUST be there

Over the past 10 seasons, Fantasy's RB1 has averaged 382.5 PPR points. Eight of the 10 backs to finish as RB1 during that time topped 370 PPR points, with Devonta Freeman (316.4 PPR points in 2015) and Adrian Peterson (347.4 PPR points in 2012) standing out as outlier RB1 finishers during seasons where there was no dominant Fantasy RB.

Finishing as the actual RB1 in any individual season is rather arbitrary -- Freeman's 2015 would have ranked him as the RB6 in 2018, for instance. For the purposes of this article, I chose to focus on backs who have scored 370 PPR points, rather than backs who finished as the RB1 in any given year. Since eight of the RB1 finishers over the past 10 years reached that plateau, it felt like a truer representation of the type of upside we are searching for -- even if it is admittedly still somewhat arbitrary.

There have been 10 backs to reach the 370 PPR point mark over the past 10 seasons, and that group had one important commonality. They all saw 80-plus targets, with the average actually coming in at 107.2. Only three backs from that group didn't see at least 100 targets, and those three saw their Fantasy finish buoyed by an unsustainable 19.3 average touchdown total.

A few other trends are worth mentioning -- all but one RB saw 250-plus carries and all but two scored double-digit touchdowns on the ground -- but the targets are clearly what sets this group apart from other running backs in Fantasy. There have been some monstrous rushing seasons over the past 10 years that didn't even result in 350 PPR points because of their lack of involvement in the passing game.

So, are stud Fantasy RBs such as Derrick Henry, Zeke Elliott, Nick Chubb, and Josh Jacobs "bad" picks in the first or second round? Not necessarily, but they do not have a path to a difference-making Fantasy season with their limited roles as receivers. If trying to find the next massive RB breakout for Fantasy purposes, you're better off taking a chance on a back who has a realistic path to 80-plus targets in addition to an early-down role. Let's examine some of the candidates for 2020.

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
2020 Fantasy finish -- RB1 (29.5 PPR points per game)
2020 path to RB1 upside -- Not seeing a decrease in targets or red zone involvement while playing in a new offensive system

Of course, Christian McCaffrey is the most-likely to hit the 370 PPR point mark in 2020. He's done it in back-to-back years while playing in a rather dysfunctional offense.

McCaffrey's target total has risen from 113, to 124, and again to 142 in his three seasons as a pro. Only seven receivers saw 140 targets in 2019. For a running back, this is truly unprecedented volume in the passing game, and it is resulting in a similarly unbelievable Fantasy output.

Don't expect McCaffrey's passing game involvement to fall off in 2020, as new QB Teddy Bridgewater frequently checks down to his running backs. Bridgewater ranked third in the NFL in 'on target' rate in 2019, but you wouldn't realize it because he is the least aggressive quarterback in the NFL. It's unlikely that Bridgewater ever puts up monster stat totals because of his unwillingness to push the ball downfield, but he is capable of sustaining a league-average offense and keeping his top weapons fed, as we saw with Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas in New Orleans last year. He also has targeted his running backs at near the league's highest rate when playing as a starter. 23 percent of Bridgewater's throws went to running backs in his first year as a starter, 19.5 percent went to RBs in 2015, and 23.5 percent of his throws were targeted at running backs last year in New Orleans.  

Couple that with McCaffrey's league-best red zone role, and you again have the makings of another record-setting Fantasy season. In 2019, McCaffrey ranked second among running backs in carries from within the five-yard line, while also leading all RB in red zone targets by a wide margin. All signs point towards another monster season from McCaffrey in his fourth year in the NFL.

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
2020 Fantasy finish -- RB10 (18.8 PPR points per game)
2020 path to RB1 upside -- A return to the type of targets he saw as a rookie and a Zeke-like snap share while operating as the workhorse back in new offensive coordinator Jason Garrett's system

Barkley was the RB3 in Fantasy upon returning in Week 7, and SportsLine's projections have him finishing as the RB3 in 2020. The only player I would take ahead of Barkley is McCaffrey. Barkley saw 121 targets as a rookie, but his targets were down a bit in his first season with Daniel Jones replacing Eli Manning. It's possible we see his passing game involvement rise as a result of the offseason coaching changes, though.

New Head Coach Joe Judge said New York's offense will schematically resemble "what we've seen from Jason Garrett in Dallas over the past 10 years," which has to have Saquon Barkley owners excited. Ezekiel Elliott and Le'Veon Bell have been the only backs able to rival Christian McCaffrey's 90-plus percent snap rates over the past few years, and it's possible that we see Barkley elevated to that type of usage in 2020.

Elliott has averaged 24.3 touches per game in his four seasons in Dallas. For reference, Barkley averaged 20.7 touches per game last year, and only McCaffrey, Elliott, and Bell have averaged more than 23 touches per game in any of the past three seasons. If Barkley joins that group from a usage perspective, he'll have a realistic chance at finishing as 2020's Fantasy RB1.

Davin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
2020 Fantasy finish -- RB6 (20.9 PPR points per game)
2020 path to RB1 upside -- A full 16-game season and a slight uptick in targets as a result of Minnesota moving on from Stefon Diggs

These are both big "ifs," with Cook currently amidst a contract dispute and having a career-high target total of just 63. And while there is no way of predicting Cook's holdout status or ability to remain healthy if he does suit up, there are reasons to believe a boost in targets could be coming.

When re-examining Cook's 2019 season, some context is necessary. Cook played over 70 percent of the offensive snaps prior to the team's Week 12 Bye. In Week 13, Cook left the game with a shoulder injury that caused him to be held below 50 percent of the snaps in Weeks 13, 14, and 15, before sitting out the final two games of the season. Prior to the Week 13 injury, Cook was the unquestioned RB2 behind Christian McCaffrey.

Here was Cook's volume profile up to that point in the season, with his rank among NFL running backs in parentheses:

• 19.5 carries per game (1st)
  
• 3.6 red zone carries per game (2nd) and 1.7 carries from within the five (1st)
• 4.8 targets per game (7th)
• Nine games with 20-plus touches. McCaffrey had eight, and the next closest was Leonard Fournette with six.

Most notable is the targets per game, which projects out to 79 targets over a 16-game season. Cook averaged an almost identical 4.9 targets in games he was healthy for in 2018, so the per-game pace for 80 targets already is well within grasp. With Stefon Diggs' 21 and 26 percent target market share from the past two seasons no longer accounted for, it is certainly possible that Cook is used as a playmaker in the passing game more often in 2020. First-round rookie Justin Jefferson will certainly play a role, but the chances of him exceeding a 20 percent target share seem extremely slim. Even last year's loaded rookie receiver class saw just one player (Terry McLaurin) finish with a target share over 20 percent.

Cook already has arguably the league's top rushing role as the featured piece in Minnesota's ground-and-pound approach. He led all backs in carries from within the five-yard line last year despite playing two fewer games, and he was pacing all backs in carries prior to his injury. If you add 80-plus targets to that type of rushing workload, you have the makings of a vintage Todd Gurley type of Fantasy season.

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
2020 Fantasy finish -- RB9 (17.8 PPR points per game)
2020 path to RB1 upside -- Better luck in the health and touchdown scoring departments

Kamara finished as the RB3 and RB4 in Fantasy during his first two seasons, but he was just the RB9 in 2019. The most obvious issue that plagued Kamara in 2019 was an almost season-long battle with injuries. Kamara started the season strong, pacing for nearly 2,000 scrimmage yards through his first five games. A high ankle sprain plagued him from Week 6 on, which caused a big dip in Kamara's hallmark efficiency.

Kamara's avoided tackles per touch dropped from 0.32 to 0.14 after sustaining his ankle injury. He ranked first (133.4) in the NFL in PFF's elusiveness rating prior to the ankle injury and had just a 34.4 rating after the injury. Kamara's PFF receiving grade of 76.6 prior to the ankle injury dropped to 60.2 following it. He clearly was hampered by injuries in 2019, and it's possible we see Kamara return to his elite level of efficiency while healthy in 2020.

The other big issue for Kamara last year was his inability to find the end zone. After scoring 13 touchdowns as a rookie and then 18 in his second season, Kamara found the end zone just six times in 2019. Everything else from his Fantasy profile was the same. For the third-straight year, Kamara caught exactly 81 passes. He averaged 18 touches per game, down just slightly from 2018's 18.3 mark. Kamara also was targeted at the highest rate of his career last season.

Was the massive dip in touchdowns a fluke? A look at his red zone usage offers some interesting insight. Below is Kamara's red zone usage for each of his three seasons as a pro:

2019 -- 27 red zone carries (52.9 percent of the team's carries), 8 carries from within the five-yard line (75 percent), and 11 red zone targets (10 percent)
2018 -- 51 red zone carries (65.4 percent), 16 carries from within the five (53.3 percent), and 25 of 139 red zone targets (18 percent)
2017 -- 25 red zone carries (41 percent), 5 carries from within five (23.8 percent), 14 red zone targets (13.3 percent)

Kamara's split of the team's red zone carries in 2019 was nearly identical to his 54.7 percent mark through the first two years of his career. His percentage of the carries from within the five-yard line was actually the highest mark of his career, but his percentage of the red zone targets was down slightly. Overall, the percentage of scoring opportunities was right in line with what we've seen in years past. The only difference was that New Orleans' offense saw far fewer red zone scoring opportunities with Drew Brees missing five games.

Kamara's 71 red zone touches in 2018 was the third-most we've seen from a running back over the past five years. It beat out historic Fantasy outputs from Christian McCaffrey (68 red zone touches) in 2019 and David Johnson (67) in 2016. If New Orleans' offense returns to the dominant unit we saw in 2018, Kamara's 2019 red zone usage rates would suggest that he'll again be among the league leaders in red zone touches. That type of touchdown potential coupled with 100-plus targets gives Kamara the highest Fantasy ceiling of any player outside of the top-five in average draft position.

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
2020 Fantasy finish -- RB15 (13.7 PPR points per game)
2020 path to RB1 upside -- Occupying the three-down back role we saw him fill in the second-half of the 2019 season

The Eagles have a reputation for using multiple backs, so most expected them to select a running back to replace Jordan Howard at some point in the 2020 draft. Apparently, Philadelphia had no such plans. They seem content with their RB group as-is, which includes Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, and Elijah Holyfield.

As such, Sanders is shaping up to have one of the most Fantasy-friendly roles of any back in the NFL for 2020. Over the past five seasons, the Eagles' RB group has ranked 7th, 15th, 13th, 10th, and 2nd in total Fantasy points. Sanders ranked as Fantasy's RB3 from Weeks 11-16 with Jordan Howard out, despite not having a single game with a PFF rushing grade above 70 during that span.

As a rusher, Sanders was not good in 2019. Sanders finished as the RB13 on the year, despite ranking just 28th out of 29 qualified backs in PFF's rushing grade and 20th in elusive rating. Given his ability to make tacklers miss in college, there's still hope that he will improve on what we saw from him as a rusher in his rookie season. If Sanders can improve his efficiency as a rusher, he has top-five Fantasy RB potential in his second season. And if not, his contributions as a receiver are enough to keep him Fantasy-relevant.

Sanders was targeted 63 times as a rookie, and he is one of just seven rookies in NFL history to finish with 800 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards. Some other names on that list include Gale Sayers, Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James, and Saquon Barkley. Sanders' 16-game pace as a receiver from the sample with Jordan Howard out comes out to 67 catches on 83 targets for 547 yards and 5 touchdowns. Only six running backs saw 80 targets in 2019.

With Boston Scott as his primary competition for touches, a bell-cow role seems to be within grasp for Sanders. We have never seen Doug Pederson utilize anything other than a running back-by-committee approach, so predicting that 2020 is the year he breaks that trend takes a leap of faith. Sanders could be looking at 80-100 targets and the team's solo goal line role though, so "the leap" of using a back-end first-round pick seems to be a worthwhile risk.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs
2020 Fantasy finish -- NA
2020 path to RB1 upside -- Securing the three-down role early in the season

Just like with his former team, Andy Reid has earned a reputation of not investing heavily in the RB position in his time in Kansas City. In his 20-plus years as an NFL head coach, Reid had never drafted a running back higher than 53rd overall (LeSean McCoy in 2009). The highest draft capitol spent on a RB during Reid's time in KC was the 86th overall selection used on Kareem Hunt in 2017. So, when the Chiefs made Clyde Edwards-Helaire the first running back selected with their 32nd overall pick, I was shocked.

Apparently I underestimated just how much confidence Reid and GM Brett Veach have in their ability to evaluate talent. Using that type of draft equity on a running back is an extremely risk move, as Edwards-Helaire almost has to be a McCaffrey, Barkley, or Kamara type of contributor as a pass-catcher to validate the pick.

Clearly, Kansas City's regime believes that will be the case. Veach, Reid, and Patrick Mahomes agreed together that Edwards-Helaire was the perfect fit for their pass-first offense. CEH finished second among all college running backs in targets and receptions last year, and he split out wide at the second-highest rate of any running back prospect charted by Graham Barfield over the past five years. Edwards-Helaire's rushing ability is also impressive, but his unique pass-catching chops are what enticed one of the NFL's sharpest front offices to invest a first-round selection in order to add him to their historically high-octane offense.

It is clear that they have big plans for the rookie back. Over the past 10 years, Andy Reid has had a clear plan in place for three of his lead backs -- LeSean McCoy in Philadelphia, Jamaal Charles in Reid's early KC days, and Kareem Hunt before his release. Those backs all commanded over 80 percent of the team's RB touches for at least a two-year span when starting.

There were four other seasons mixed into Reid's past decade where injury forced him to use more of a committee approach, but he has preferred to use a dominant lead back in his high-powered offenses. The results for Reid's lead back have been awesome for Fantasy purposes.

Shady McCoy ranked as Fantasy's RB2 in both 2010 and 11, before succumbing to injury in 2012. In his first season with the Chiefs in 2013, Reid helped Jamaal Charles to his career season, which was the seventh-highest scoring Fantasy RB season of the past ten seasons. Charles finished as the RB7 in 15 games in 2014, but injuries derailed his career after that. Kareem Hunt finished as the RB4 in Fantasy as a rookie in 2017, and he was the RB6 through 11 weeks before being released in 2018. From that point on, Damien Williams and Spencer Ware combined to rank third in Fantasy RB scoring.

The injuries that plagued Williams in 2019 have been a theme to this point in his career, and Kansas City's decision to use a first-round pick on CEH is an obvious indicator that the rookie will be given every opportunity to earn the lead back role over their oft-injured journeyman. The Chiefs are in win-now mode and they used their top offseason asset to add a running back. Their actions show that KC plans to feature him right away, and if he proves capable of handling the lead back role, Edwards-Helaire has the pass-catching ability to finish as Fantasy's RB1 while frequently polishing off drives for the league's best offense.

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
2020 Fantasy finish -- RB4 (19.3 PPR points per game)
2020 path to RB1 upside -- Dominating the offense's usage in the same way he always has when playing without Melvin Gordon and getting a bit lucky when it comes to finding the end zone

Austin Ekeler has been nothing but excellent in his first three pro seasons, and his team showed their confidence in him this summer. Not only did the Chargers move on from Melvin Gordon, but they waited until pick 112 to select a running back from 2020's loaded class. 11 running backs went off the board before the Chargers selected Josh Kelley.

Ekeler has played seven games without Melvin Gordon over the past two seasons. In those games, he's averaged 20.8 PPR points. Only Christian McCaffrey (29.5) and Dalvin Cook (20.9) averaged more PPR points in 2019. In his three seasons, Ekeler has ranked 3rd, 4th, and 2nd in Fantasy points per snap. He was the second-highest scoring Fantasy player at any position through the first five weeks last season -- ahead of Lamar Jackson and Michael Thomas. With no Melvin Gordon to rain on his parade, Ekeler has the receiving and goal line role to continue to churn out top-five finishes on a weekly basis in PPR formats.

Ekeler's target totals and scoring opportunities will almost certainly fall with Philip Rivers replaced by Tyrod Taylor, but the difference in snaps with Gordon no longer around should be enough to offset it. I'm not drafting Ekeler as if he'll replicate his RB4 finish -- he's my RB10 at the moment -- but he absolutely still has the ceiling to finish that high if he sees a 70-plus percent snap rate in 2020.

James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers
2020 Fantasy finish -- RB35 (14.6 PPR points per game)
2020 path to RB1 upside -- Returning to a three-down role and remaining healthy for 16 games

We have seen time and time again that Pittsburgh Head Coach Mike Tomlin prefers a clear lead back. That's what we saw from James Conner when healthy in 2018, and that is what Tomlin expects from Conner again in 2020, which also happens to be a contract season.

Conner had a snap rate above 80 percent in the games he was healthy for in 2018, and he was Fantasy's RB5 through the first 13 weeks of 2018. He was the RB9 through Week 8 last year, but that was while playing a diminished snap rate as he played through illness and both knee and ankle injuries. From that point on, a shoulder injury limited Conner to just 56 total snaps across three games.

Like L.A., the Steelers were fully expected to use an early pick on a back to replace the oft-injured Conner. Yet, Pittsburgh waited even longer than the Chargers to do so, letting 12 backs fall off the board before settling on Anthony McFarland in the fourth-round. McFarland has the talent to be Fantasy-relevant if Conner goes down, but he's not someone I am expecting to threaten a healthy Conner for playing time as a rookie.

So, with Conner healthy and expected to return to his featured role in an offense that has a healthy Big Ben under center, how high should expectations be? Well, if you examine the 13-game sample of games Conner has seen a snap rate above 70 percent, it is clear that he has the ceiling to belong on this list.

Conner's sample from the games he's played at least 70 percent of the snaps projects out to 277 carries for 1,289 yards, and 16 touchdowns on the ground over a 16-game season. His 16-game pace as a receiver is what I was interested in though, as I wasn't entirely sure he would qualify for the 80-target threshold that we established. Sure enough though, Conner's 16-game pace was 66.5 catches on 87.4 targets.

All in all, Conner's 16-game pace was 355.5 Fantasy points. In case you forgot after wading through all this information, the "RB1" point total set at the beginning of this article was 370 points. So, what is Conner's 2020 path to upside? It really might be as simple as staying healthy. The Steelers have one of the NFL's easiest schedules for 2020, and their offense should be able to return to at least its 2018 form.

Conner hasn't come close to playing a full 16 games yet, so don't draft him as if he will come anywhere near posting the numbers we just examined. He has the ability to reach that type of a Fantasy ceiling, but you won't have to invest that type of draft equity to take a shot on him delivering. Conner is currently going off the board at the front end of the third-round, as the RB18 on average. I have him ranked as my RB14 as of this writing, but no other back in his ADP range boasts the type of upside as a true three-down back that Conner does. I'm drafting him confidently towards the back end of round two and am thrilled any time I can grab him in the third round.