The Texas State Bobcats open Sun Belt Conference play on Thursday night when they battle the Troy Trojans at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Ala. Texas State is coming off a 40-39 loss at Sam Houston State, while Troy fell 13-9 to Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday. The Bobcats (2-2, 0-0 Sun Belt), who are playing in their first true road game, have outscored their opponents 150-108 this season. The Trojans (1-4, 0-1 Sun Belt), who are 1-2 on their home field, have been outscored 129-107 in 2024.

Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET. Troy leads the all-time series 13-1, including an 8-0 mark at home. The Trojans have a 12-game winning streak against the Bobcats. The Bobcats are 13.5-point favorites in the latest Texas State vs. Troy odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 57.5. 

Before making any Texas State vs. Troy picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also went a sizzling 6-0 on all top-rated college football picks in Week 5. Anyone who has followed it has seen STRONG returns!

The model knows senior quarterback Jordan McCloud has been solid this season for the Bobcats. He has completed 97 of 140 passes (69.3%) for 1,141 yards and 12 touchdowns with three interceptions and a 161.7 rating. He is also the Bobcats' third-leading rusher with 21 carries for 101 yards (4.8 average) and two touchdowns. In Saturday's loss to Sam Houston State, he completed 29 of 39 passes (74.4%) for 326 yards and three touchdowns.

The model also has taken into account that junior running back Damien Taylor leads the Trojans' rushing attack. He has surpassed 100 yards rushing twice this year, including a 15-carry, 109-yard and one-touchdown performance against Florida A&M in a 34-12 win on Sept. 21. He carried 11 times for 103 yards and a score in a 28-26 loss to Nevada on Aug. 31. For the season, he has carried 57 times for 336 yards (5.9 average) and two TDs.

The model has simulated Texas State vs. Troy 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you the model is leaning Under on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time!

Who wins Texas State vs. Troy, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the spread you should be all over, all from the model that went 6-0 on top-rated CFB picks in Week 5!