Not sure if you've heard, but football is pretty big in Texas. The Lone Star State's NFL bragging rights are up for grabs, as is the Governor's Cup, when the AFC South-leading Houston Texans (6-4) visit the massively disappointing Dallas Cowboys (3-6) to conclude Week 11 on Monday Night Football. The Texans, in their third straight primetime game, are -7 with a total of 41.5. There are no weather worries in Arlington as AT&T Stadium has a retractable roof. 

Cowboys owner/general manager Jerry Jones keeps saying that he has no plans to fire head coach Mike McCarthy before the end of the season because Jones has regretted doing that in previous cases -- and McCarthy doesn't have a contract for 2025, so why pay him not to coach? McCarthy will clearly not be back. But if Dallas is embarrassed yet again at home on national TV by its local rival in a football-crazy state, Tuesday morning could get quite interesting. 

Despite coming off one of the worst performances by a starting quarterback in modern history, Cooper Rush will be under center again for the Cowboys but could potentially have a very short leash (Dak Prescott had season-ending surgery this week). Former third-stringer Trey Lance is likely to have some packages designed for him. I personally don't think anyone wants to see the inept Dallas offense in a primetime standalone game, but Monday night games can't be flexed until Week 12.

Incidentally, the Cowboys' season over/under win total was originally set at 10.5, so any Under bettors could cash as soon as tonight. I'm pretty certain Dallas will not finish on an 8-0 run to land Over -- which took massive action simply because the Cowboys are America's Team. The team's new total is 5.5. 

Meanwhile, the only way Houston likely doesn't repeat in the AFC South, considering it already has a season sweep over second-place Indianapolis, is if quarterback C.J. Stroud gets injured. The SportsLine Projection Model gave the Texans a 94.8% shot of winning the South (equates to -1823), the second-biggest number entering Week 11 for any club (behind Buffalo in the AFC East). DraftKings lists Houston at -6000 to win the division, compared to the -10000 offered Sunday morning before the Colts went out and beat the Jets. 

The Texans are 0-2 (1-1 ATS) in primetime over the past two weeks. Expect a close game as eight of their 10 games overall have been decided by one score, including five by three points or fewer. Starting wideout Nico Collins is expected to return from injury.

We'll take you through every aspect of the Texans vs. Cowboys game that you need to know before you lock in your bets, including SportsLine expert picks, props, trends, DFS, injury information and everything else that will help you know which plays are worth making for the primetime matchup.

Who wins Texans vs. Cowboys in the Week 11 Monday night game, and what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread hit HARD? Join SportsLine right now to see everything you need to know to dominate your Monday Night Football bets, plus get expert picks, model sims, prop bets, DFS lineups, and more!