The St. Louis Cardinals will look to turn around their recent fortunes when they battle the Pittsburgh Pirates in a key National League Central matchup on Monday. The Cardinals (4-5), who tied for second in the division at 83-79 last year, are 0-3 on the road this season. The Pirates (3-7), who finished fifth in the Central at 76-86 in 2024, are 1-2 on their home field.

First pitch from PNC Park in Pittsburgh is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. St. Louis is a –125 favorite on the money line (risk $125 to win $100) in the latest Cardinals vs. Pirates odds from SportsLine consensus, while the total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 8.5.

Before making any Cardinals vs. Pirates picks or MLB predictions, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters the 2025 MLB season on a 34-19 roll on top-rated run-line picks (+629) that dates back to 2023. Anybody following could have seen strong returns. 

The model knows St. Louis is expected to send left-hander Matthew Liberatore (0-0, 4.50 ERA) to the mound. In his first outing, a 9-7 loss to the Los Angeles Angels, he received a no-decision, pitching six innings and allowing three earned runs, while walking zero batters and striking out four. In 60 games, including six starts in 2024, he went 3-4 with a 4.40 ERA, allowing 81 hits, 42 earned runs and 28 walks, while striking out 76 in 86 innings. He has faced the Pirates eight times, going 1-2.  

The model also knows Pittsburgh will counter with right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski (0-1, 9.82 ERA). In his first outing this year, a 6-1 loss at Tampa Bay on March 31, he pitched 3.2 innings, allowing four earned runs and two walks, while striking out four. In 40 games last season, including four starts, he went 5-5 with a 3.38 ERA with 19 walks and 46 strikeouts. In seven career games against St. Louis, he is 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA with two walks and 12 strikeouts.

The model has simulated Cardinals vs. Pirates 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you the model is leaning Over on the run total, and it also says one side of the money line has ALL the value!

Who wins Cardinals vs. Pirates, and which side of the money line has ALL the value? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the money line you should be all over, all from the model on a 34-19 roll on top-rated MLB picks!