We're down to the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles in the quest to crown 2024 NFL champions, with the two teams set to square off in Super Bowl LIX on Sunday, February 9. It's a rematch of two years ago when the Chiefs won 38-35 after erasing a 10-point halftime deficit. Jalen Hurts dominated that game, rushing for three touchdowns while Philadelphia running backs managed just 45 yards on 17 carries. Two years later, things have changed.

Now the Eagles offense is built around a dominant rushing attack spearheaded by Saquon Barkley, who became the ninth player ever to rush for 2,000 yards in a single season despite sitting out the final game of the year and passing up the chance to break the rushing record. Barkley has rushed for 119, 205 and 118 yards during the Eagles' playoff run, scoring five rushing TDs in the last two games.

The Chiefs, on the other hand, spent much of the season just doing enough to win, including a run of seven straight games without covering but with a 6-1 straight up record. But Kansas City returned to vintage form after that stretch, going 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games leading into the Super Bowl, with the only non-cover coming when resting starters in Week 18. The increase in productivity has aligned with the breakout of rookie Xavier Worthy, who scored in four of the five meaningful games during that cover streak, and he's a problem the Eagles defense will have to try and solve.

As I do every week in football season, I've made adjustments to my spread power ratings for both the Chiefs and Eagles coming out of their wins on conference championship weekend. Typically those ratings are then combined with a home-field advantage score to determine what I project for a spread in every matchup, but home field is of course of no concern here. So do the Chiefs deserve to be rated 1-2 points better than the Eagles, as is reflected by the Super Bowl spread? I'll get into that below.

What are NFL spread power ratings? You can check out the explainer in how to build and maintain NFL power ratings in our Week 1 version of this column. Or, you can read on to see my ratings for every team and where I think the market is off this week. I went 636-534-34 (+4899) on ATS picks from 2017-23 and even better with my top five picks each week, going 428-327-25 (56.7%) from 2015-23 in the big Las Vegas spread picks contests. My power ratings have been a big part of maintaining that success. 

Which teams are being underrated by the betting market? And which spreads are the furthest off where they should be? ... Join SportsLine right now to see playoff NFL power ratings from the expert who's 636-534-34 on ATS picks from 2017-23, returning $4,899 to $100 players!