SportsLine's Sweet 16 bracket and probabilities

The SportsLine Projection Model still is smarting from losing its champ, Michigan State, in stunning fashion.

But nailing each of its major upset picks -- including Stephen F. Austin over No. 3 seed West Virginia, Hawaii over No. 4 California and Yale over No. 5 Baylor -- helped the Projection Model recalibrate.

Or whatever computers do to feel better.

Overall, SportsLine enjoyed a profitable first two rounds. The computer went 16-12 on A-rated picks: 6-3 on moneyline plays (+271), 5-4 on spreads and 5-5 on totals.

How does SportsLine see the Sweet 16 playing out? Read on.

East Region

Indiana is the second biggest underdog in the Sweet 16, getting 5.5 points versus top-seeded North Carolina.

Where much of the public sees a team about to be eliminated, SportsLine sees a very live dog. The Projection Model likes Indiana to upset the Tar Heels (53 percent chance) and has the Hoosiers knocking off Wisconsin (73 percent chance) to reach the Final Four.

"The Hoosiers shot well in impressive wins over Kentucky and Chattanooga, especially when you adjust for the quality of the opponent's defense," says Stephen Oh, SportsLine's principal engineer. "They didn't turn the ball over much (12 vs. Chattanooga, 11 vs. Kentucky) and held both opponents below their typical field-goal percentages."

Midwest Region

Top-seeded Virginia, which shot 73 percent in the second half of Saturday's 77-69 win over Butler, is SportsLine's biggest lock to make the Final Four.

The Projection Model gives the Cavaliers a 60 percent chance of beating Iowa State and a 61 percent chance of taking down Gonzaga -- the expected winner against Syracuse -- in the Regional Final.

Known as a defensive team, Virginia showed Saturday it is more than capable offensively. Malcolm Brogdon went 8 of 11 from two-point range and 6 of 6 from the foul line in the win over the Bulldogs.

South Region

Top overall seed Kansas defeats Maryland in 62 percent of simulations, but the projected Regional Final against Villanova should be a doozy.

SportsLine gives the Jayhawks a 51 percent chance in that matchup. Kansas is seeking its first Final Four berth since 2012.

Villanova dominated in the first two rounds, averaging 86.5 points while winning by 30 and 19. Every starting Wildcat shot at least 50 percent in Villanova's dismantling of Iowa.

The Wildcats haven't been this far since 2009.

First they must deal with Miami, which topped a No. 14 seed (Buffalo) and a No. 11 (Wichita State).

While SportsLine gives the 'Canes a 35 percent chance of upsetting 'Nova, you can't discount a squad that went 13-5 -- same as UVA and one game worse than UNC -- in the ACC.

West Region

Chalk held in this region. SportsLine doesn't see that continuing, picking No. 4 seed Duke (60 percent) to beat top-seeded Oregon and meet Oklahoma in the Regional Final.

Before the tourney, SportsLine had Duke as a slight favorite in that potential matchup. Now it's Oklahoma getting the slight edge (51 percent) to send Coach K home.

Thus SportsLine envisions Buddy Hield carrying the Sooners to their first Final Four since 2002. All Hield has done in two games is score 63 points, make 9 of 20 3-pointers and grab 12 rebounds while committing just three turnovers.

Final Four

In a Big 12 showdown, SportsLine has Kansas as a significant favorite over Oklahoma in one National Semifinal. The Jayhawks won both regular season meetings with the Sooners by a combined seven points.

In the other semifinal, SportsLine has the Hoosiers as a very slight favorite over Virginia.

When all is said and done, Bill Self's Kansas Jayhawks will be cutting down the nets in Houston in two weeks. Unless, of course, they lose to Maryland, Villanova or Miami, Fla in Louisville.