SportsLine Projection Model Finds Value In One World Series Future

The 2019 MLB Postseason begins this week, with the Washington Nationals and Milwaukee Brewers squaring off in the NL Wild Card Game on Tuesday, followed by the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics battling in the AL Wild Card Game on Wednesday. In advance of the action, though, all eyes are on which teams can make a run to the ultimate prize of a World Series title and, before first pitch in Wild Card action, SportsLine's projection model unearths value in one particular World Series future. 

SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh reveals that the Los Angeles Dodgers, currently facing 5-2 odds, project to win the World Series 31.8 percent of the time. The implied odds, at 5-2, would be at 28.6 percent for the Dodgers, indicating a lean toward Los Angeles as the best value on the board.

Elsewhere, the model gives the Houston Astros just a 30.4 percent chance to win the World Series, falling just short of justifying their current "favorite" status at 2-1 odds. From there, the New York Yankees (14.4 percent chance at 4-1 odds), Atlanta Braves (7.3 percent at 10-1 odds), Minnesota Twins (3.6 percent chance at 12-1 odds) and St. Louis Cardinals (3.4 percent chance at 12-1 odds) have the best projected chance to claim the title but, in the current market, no team other than the Dodgers actually returns value when compared to SportsLine's simulations. 

Things could theoretically shift after the Wild Card games are settled, particularly in that the first-round opponents for both the Dodgers and Astros are yet to be determined. Still, there is potential value to be exploited in the numbers and SportsLine makes the Dodgers the favorite to win the World Series, even as the Astros sit atop odds sheets.