SportsLine NFL simulations: Addition of Calais Campbell pulls Ravens even with Chiefs

The Baltimore Ravens had the best record in the NFL last season at 14-2, largely behind the performance of league MVP Lamar Jackson at quarterback.

They were upset in the AFC's divisional round by the Tennessee Titans but entered the new league year as the second favorite at 7-1 in the NFL odds to win the championship.

On Sunday, Baltimore made a big move to solidify its status as a favorite by trading a fifth-round pick to the Jacksonville Jaguars for defensive end Calais Campbell.

Before the trade, the SportsLine Projection Model had the Ravens with an 18.4 percent chance to win the Super Bowl. The simulations projected them to win 11.5 games, with an 81.7 percent chance to win the division and a 94 percent chance to make the playoffs.

After adding Campbell, Baltimore is now projected by the Model to win 11.9 games, with a 21.4 percent chance to win the title. It has an 85.2 percent chance to repeat as AFC North champion and 96.2 to make the postseason.

The addition of Campbell, who will turn 34 before the season starts, improves a Ravens pass rush that had 37 sacks last season, which ranked 21st in the league. The Jaguars ranked ninth with 47.

The 6-foot-8, 300-pounder had 6.5 sacks in 2019, his lowest total since 2015, but he had 25 quarterback hits and had posted 25 sacks over the previous two years. The 2008 second-round pick out of Miami has 88 sacks and 201 QB hits in 186 career games.

Campbell's presence essentially makes the race between the Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs a dead heat. Kansas City is the 9-2 favorite according to Westgate to win the title in the coming season, but the Model has the team's chance of winning the title dropping from 21.8 to 21.3 percent.

The defensive end's disruptive nature will not only make the Ravens more effective at rattling quarterbacks like Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes, but it also will help against running backs like the Titans' Derrick Henry. The Tennessee star rushed for 195 yards in the 28-12 victory against Baltimore in the playoffs.

The Jaguars defense was not great against the run last season, ranking 28th in the NFL overall and 31st in allowing 5.1 yards per game. But without Campbell on the field, the Jags allowed 5.8 per carry, as opposed to 4.9 with him causing chaos.

As the NFL offseason plays out, and the signings and the 2020 NFL Draft impact the NFL odds, check back here for updates and analysis,