The 11th-seeded SMU Mustangs and sixth-seeded Penn State Nittany Lions kick off their College Football Playoff with a first-round matchup on Saturday at University Park, Pa. The winner will advance to face No. 3 Boise State on Dec. 31 at the Fiesta Bowl. The Mustangs (11-2), who are coming off a 34-31 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, last won a national championship in 1982. The Nittany Lions (11-2), who lost 45-37 to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game, have won two national championships, the last coming in 1986.

Kickoff is set for noon ET at Beaver Stadium. This will be the third meeting between the schools, with Penn State owning a 1-0-1 series edge. The Nittany Lions are 8.5-point favorites in the latest SMU vs. Penn State odds, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 54 points, per SportsLine consensus. 

Before entering any SMU vs. Penn State picks, you'll want to see the college football predictions from the model at SportsLine.

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The model has simulated SMU vs. Penn State 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

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