The top two American League Wild Card teams battle when the fifth-seeded Kansas City Royals take on the fourth-seeded Baltimore Orioles in the first game of their best-of-three series on Tuesday. The Royals (86-76), who tied for second in the AL Central with the Detroit Tigers, finished 41-40 on the road. The Orioles (91-71), who were second in the AL East behind the champion New York Yankees, were 44-37 on their home field.

First pitch is scheduled for 4:08 p.m. ET from Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore. The Orioles are the -151 money line favorite (risk $151 to win $100) in the latest Royals vs. Orioles odds, while the Royals are +128 underdogs. The over/under for total runs scored is 6.5 in the latest MLB odds via SportsLine consensus. 

Before you make any Royals vs. Orioles picks or MLB predictions, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. Entering the 2024 MLB playoffs, it's on a 32-17 roll on top-rated run-line picks (+822) that dates back to last season. Anybody following has seen STRONG returns!

The model knows Baltimore is expected to send right-hander Corbin Burnes (15-9, 2.92 ERA) to the mound. Burnes will be making his ninth career postseason appearance and third start. He is 1-1 in the postseason with a 2.84 ERA with six walks and 22 strikeouts in 19 innings of work. He has won two of his past three decisions to end the regular season. In his last outing, he took the loss in a 10-1 defeat at New York against the Yankees. He went five innings, allowing just two hits and one earned run with one walk and nine strikeouts.

The model also knows Bobby Witt Jr. sets the tone for the Royals. In 161 games this season, Witt hit .332 with 45 doubles, 11 triples, 32 homers, 109 RBI and 31 stolen bases. He has hits in eight of his last nine games, including three in a row. In a 2-1 loss to the San Francisco Giants on Sept. 20, he went 3-for-4. He was 2-for-4 with a walk and stolen base in the win at Washington Sept. 24.

The model has simulated Royals vs. Orioles 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you the model is leaning Over on the run total, and it also says one side of the money line has ALL the value!

Who wins Royals vs. Orioles, and which side of the money line has ALL the value? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the money line you should be all over, all from the model on a 32-17 roll on top-rated MLB run-line picks!