Prediction computer simulates the NFC North
With a potential Super Bowl LII berth ready to be seized for the Minneapolis crowd, the Minnesota Vikings' miracle finish against the Saints in the Division Round of the playoffs appeared to be an omen for a team destined to finally win a championship. All that stood in the way was a date in Philadelphia with the underdog Eagles and their backup quarterback. And then the NFC Championship game: Eagles 38, Vikings 7. So crushing was the loss, the Vikes let quarterback Case Keenum, who won 12 games as a starter, walk.
The Vikings only took control of the NFC North after Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone in Minnesota. The Packers' impressive 4-1 season start led to a disastrous 3-8 ending that included back-to-back overtime wins home to Tampa and at winless Cleveland. With Rodgers raring to go right now, Green Bay should be back in playoff contention in 2018, while the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears attempt to make playoff runs of their own.
Here's a look at what the computer is projecting in the NFC North.
Minnesota Vikings
Projected wins: 9.5
Division win percentage: 48.4
Postseason percentage: 63.8
Green Bay Packers
Projected wins: 9.1
Division win percentage: 33.7
Postseason percentage: 51.6
Detroit Lions
Projected wins: 8.0
Division win percentage: 15.3
Postseason percentage: 29.4
Chicago Bears
Projected wins: 6.1
Division win percentage: 2.7
Postseason percentage: 6.3
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Division preview: Based on SportsLine's prediction model, the NFC North will be separated from first to fourth by less than 3.5 games. The Lions, despite improving their run game with the addition of LeGarrette Blount, are expected to regress in 2018, while the Bears are expected to improve slightly.
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The computer doesn't believe Kirk Cousins will have a positive effect on the Vikings, as their projected win total is 9.5. Despite winning the NFC North by four games over the Lions last season, the projection model is giving Minnesota a less than 50 percent chance to win the division. With Dalvin Cook set to return to action in the first preseason game against the Denver Broncos, an imposing one-two receiving punch of Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs and an elite defense that appeared to strengthen during the offseason, the Vikings are poised to take the division again, even against a fully recovered Rodgers.
Green Bay backup quarterback Brett Hundley threw nine touchdown passes and 11 interceptions in his 11 games last season. For the Packers to make a deep postseason run, they will need a healthy Rodgers under center. The computer gives the Packers a 51.6 percent shot at making the playoffs and a decent 33.6 percent chance to win the division. With Jordy Nelson in Oakland, Green Bay will turn to Davante Adams and Randall Cobb to lead the receiving charge. But there are some serious doubts on defense, which allowed an unsightly 24 points per game in 2017.
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Matthew Stafford begins his 10th season as Lions quarterback. At 30, he's still in his prime and hasn't missed a game since 2010. He's thrown for at least 4,000 yards seven consecutive seasons and will be gunning for his top two targets Marvin Jones and Golden Tate in 2018. Getting more production from Kenny Golladay would also help the Lions, who produced an impressive 25.6 points per game last season. If the defense is firmer than last year, Detroit could blow past the projected eight-win total pretty easily.
It's year two of the Mitch Trubisky era and the Bears are in need of a new identity. While Chicago won only five games in 2017, the defense was not the culprit, holding opponents to 20 points per game. The computer projects just a 6.3 percent shot to make the playoffs with about a one-in-40 chance to win the division. Trubisky will need to take a great Year 2 leap forward, like Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, for the Bears to be legitimate contenders.
While the SportsLine Projection Model gives the slight edge to the Vikings, the Packers should be neck-and-neck with them all the way to season's end, but look for their Week 12 game in Minneapolis to be the difference maker.
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