Power Ratings: Seemingly no holes in a pair of Sox
We're now roughly six weeks into the 2016 season, and now it's time for our weekly look at how the SportsLine Projection Model forecasts the rest of the 2016 season.
You can probably guess the teams at the far end of each continuum (spoilers: Cubs and Braves), but we're seeing some movement and even some clarity in the AL East.
Specifically, the Red Sox and their powerhouse offense have leaped up the Power Ratings for this week.
Here is a look at this week's Power Ratings from SportsLine ...
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
1 | 67.0% | 108.5 | 104.8 | 99.1% | -0.1% | -0.4 |
The Cubs are one of just 10 teams since 1913 to win at least 28 of their first 35 games. At present, they're on pace for 122 wins, and they've played like it: it's the middle of May, and the Cubs already boast a run differential of +109.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
2 | 58.2% | 94.2 | 92.1 | 84.3% | +31.2% | +5.2 |
David Price has been a major disappointment thus far, and the pitching as a whole has been middling. Still, the Sox are big forward movers this week, as they jump nine spots in the ratings and improved their playoff percentage by a whopping 31.2 points. The secret? As a team they're hitting a ridiculous .298/.359/.489. As a team!
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
3 | 57.8% | 93.6 | 95.3 | 82.2% | +1.0% | -0.3 |
SportsLine sees the Nats as a legit 95-win team, and to that end Max Scherzer getting back to vintage form was a most welcome sight. Big stretch ahead, as the Nats' next nine games will come against the Mets and Marlins.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
4 | 57.3% | 92.8 | 91.5 | 85.2% | +12.3% | +1.9 |
Yes, SportsLine believes in the White Sox, thanks to their upgraded infield and dominant front of the rotation. SportsLine now tabs the Sox for 91.5 wins, and only the crosstown Cubs presently have a higher playoff percentage.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
5 | 57.2% | 92.7 | 90.1 | 75.0% | +14.7% | +2.2 |
SportsLine right now is giving the O's a three-in-four chance of making the playoffs. As has been the case for much of the Buck Showalter era in Baltimore, power is the calling card. The O's lead the AL in home runs and rank second in slugging percentage. Not surprisingly, Manny Machado has looked like a leading MVP candidate thus far.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
6 | 57.0% | 92.4 | 94.4 | 78.8% | -1.9% | +1.3 |
Right now, the Dodgers project to win the NL West by a two games over the Giants. Dave Roberts' club has seen their playoff percentage slip a bit since last week, but they still profile as the best in the division.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
7 | 56.8% | 92.0 | 95.6 | 82.8% | -9.0% | -3.1 |
Yes, SportsLine is still bullish on the Cardinals. They've dug themselves a serious hole in the NL Central, but we're still tagging them with an 82.8 percent chance of making the postseason. They have a winning record, and they've significantly underperformed some of their baseline indicators. That suggests better days could be in the offing.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
8 | 56.7% | 91.9 | 93.1 | 69.9% | -6.9% | -1.9 |
This time last week, the Mets projected as a 95-win team. Since then, they've lost almost two full wins off that projection. The good is that the Mets are where they are despite getting an ERA of almost 5.00 from Matt Harvey.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
9 | 56.1% | 90.8 | 92.1 | 63.6% | +36.3% | +5.7 |
Not that you were sleeping on the Giants, what with all the even-year nonsense going around, but, yeah, don't sleep on the Giants. They ended the week on a five-game win streak, which included a four-game road sweep over Arizona. Their 36.3-point gain in playoff percentage leads all teams this week.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
10 | 55.3% | 89.6 | 86.8 | 64.2% | +0.8% | +0.4 |
The M's were certifiably surging for a while, but then they managed to get swept at home by the lowly Angels. The good news, though, is that they'll play 13 of their next 16 against the Reds, A's, Twins, and Padres.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
11 | 54.0% | 87.5 | 89.5 | 71.1% | -3.3% | -0.7 |
Yes, the Jays have been disappointing thus far. However, they're running a positive run differential, and they've played the AL's toughest schedule to date. As such, SportsLine still likes them to approach 90 wins on the season.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
12 | 52.3% | 84.7 | 85.6 | 44.0% | -30.9% | -4.5 |
Tough week for the Indians, as they lost 30.9 points from their playoff percentage and dropped four spots in the ratings. They're coming off a 2-4 week and haven't been closer than 5.0 games out of first place since May 6.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
13 | 52.1% | 84.4 | 81.9 | 26.0% | -2.8% | 0.0 |
The Rangers, of course, stand to lose productive second baseman Rougned Odor to a suspension after he throttled Jose Bautista with a right cross. That'll be a hit. That said, the Rangers are playing .564 ball, and Yu Darvish's return to the rotation is in sight.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
14 | 51.8% | 83.9 | 86.0 | 18.3% | -19.1% | -3.6 |
The Buccos saw their playoff percentage drop from 37.5 to 18.3, thanks in part to their dropping two of three in Chicago. The Pirates are now 1-5 against the Cubs this season, and in those games they've been outscored, 38-13.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
15 | 49.5% | 80.2 | 80.7 | 3.9% | +2.3% | +1.9 |
The Marlins make some small, incremental gains when it comes to projected record, power rating, and playoff percentage. The Marlins were 7.5 games out on April 24, but they'll head into play on Tuesday just 2.0 games back.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
16 | 49.0% | 79.4 | 81.9 | 26.7% | +9.8% | +2.5 |
The Astros looked like they may have been stirring to life, but then they dropped three of four in Boston -- losing by a single run in each of those three defeats. Carlos Gomez may be in danger of losing his starting job in center field.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
17 | 48.9% | 79.3 | 79.1 | 9.1% | -19.3% | -4.2 |
The Rays dropped five out of six this past week and in the process went from 2.5 games out of first place to 6.5. That's why they lost 19.3 points off their playoff percentage.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
18 | 48.5% | 78.5 | 78.4 | 8.1% | -6.7% | -1.9 |
Lorenzo Cain's bat seems to be coming around, which is good news considering Mike Moustakas is still on the DL. They've got two starting pitchers on the DL, but the consoling knowledge is that Chris Young and Kris Medlen have been terrible this season. SportsLine still sees the champs winding up with a losing record in 2016.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
19 | 47.0% | 76.1 | 75.1 | 0.6% | -0.7% | -1.2 |
The Rockies are hanging in there at one game above .500 and an even run differential. In a related matter, Nolan Arenado may be taking the next step toward genuine stardom. Fresh off a sweep of the Mets, the Rox will play their next 12 games against the Cardinals, Pirates, Red Sox, and Giants.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
20 | 46.4% | 75.2 | 76.5 | 0.8% | -1.9% | -1.7 |
Paul Goldschmidt's SLG is down to .430, which is concerning to say the least. Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller have also been disappointing in the extreme thus far. Wanna talk streaky? Coming into this week, the D-Backs had a six-game losing streak followed by a five-game win streak followed by a five-game losing streak.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
21 | 46.3% | 75.1 | 74.1 | 2.7% | +0.6% | +1.2 |
A signing of Tim Lincecum could be in the offing, and ace Garrett Richards is trying to avoid Tommy John surgery. Even so, the rotation is woefully thin, and there's too many sinkholes in the lineup.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
22 | 45.8% | 74.3 | 74.7 | 2.1% | +1.0% | +1.7 |
The aging Yankee lineup isn't delivering. Right now, they rank 12th in the AL in runs scored and last in OPS, and that's despite playing their home games in a park that boosts run scoring. The Yanks' first last-place finish since 1990? It could happen.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
23 | 44.7% | 72.4 | 71.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.2 |
So where does SportsLine get off, giving a winning team like the Phillies a 0.0 percent chance of making the playoffs? That winning record is held up by a 14-3 mark in one-run games, and that's just not sustainable. The rebuilding Phils simply don't project well over the remainder of 2016.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
24 | 44.4% | 71.9 | 71.0 | 0.4% | -0.1% | -0.1 |
Justin Upton isn't hitting, rotation depth is a concern, and the bullpen isn't performing as expected. As a result, the Tigers are now running a playoff percentage of just 0.4.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
25 | 44.3% | 71.7 | 70.1 | 0.5% | -7.3% | -6.8 |
The A's were interesting for a while, but, well, things changed. Since their win streak reached six on April 22, they've gone 6-15 and presently check in with just a 0.5 percent chance of reaching the playoffs.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
26 | 42.9% | 69.6 | 70.9 | 0.4% | 0.0% | +0.1 |
The Twins are next-to-last in the AL in runs scored and next-to-last in the AL in ERA. When you're not scoring or preventing runs, you lose a lot of games. So it is with the 2016 Twins.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
27 | 42.2% | 68.3 | 68.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | +1.0 |
The Pads thus far are 3-9 against the Giants, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks, which is not a recipe for relevance in the NL West. Wil Myers has cooled off significantly since his strong start to the season.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
28 | 40.3% | 65.2 | 65.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | +2.4 |
The good: Most of the lineup regulars are producing at least at a solid level. The bad: The rotation is running an utterly awful 5.83 ERA.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
29 | 38.3% | 62.0 | 60.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | +2.0 |
Joey Votto's struggles continue, as he's running an OPS+ of 90, which is a career-worst mark by a wide margin. Since that 5-1 start to the season, the Reds have gone 10-21, which more in line with expectations.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
30 | 31.8% | 51.5 | 54.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.7 |
The Braves as a team have nine home runs. At present, 13 individual players have more home runs than the Braves do. It's a power game, and Atlanta has precious little of it.
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