Power Ratings: Here come the Cards, right on schedule

We're roughly a month from the All-Star break, so let's take an updated look at how the SportsLine Projection Model sees things when it comes to the best and worst teams in baseball.

These rankings are based on results to date and underlying indicators, of course, and the remaining games on the schedule have been simulated thousands of times for a future outlook.

You can probably guess the team at the top of the heap, but we're seeing some movement elsewhere.

Specifics? The Tigers and Cardinals are trending in the right direction, while the Astros and Dodgers are not.

Here is a team-by-team look at this week's SportsLine Power Ratings:

They're coming off a 4-2 week on the road, we project them for 107 wins on the season, and they've scored almost twice as many runs as they've given up. The Cubs are No. 1 by a wide margin.

SportsLine gives the Nats a 97.6 percent chance of making the postseason. They enter the week having ripped off six wins in their last seven games. A mettle-testing series against the Cubs will speak volumes this week.

The Giants-Dodgers clash in the NL West? SportsLine likes the Giants by a substantial margin, as the Projection Model gives San Fran better than a two-in-three chance of taking the division.

The first-place Rangers have won seven straight series, and they're 17-5 against the Astros and Mariners this season. Yu Darvish is back on the DL, but the Rangers have thrived in 2016 while getting just three starts from him.

Last week, the Dodgers dropped two of three to the Rockies and Giants, and so they saw their playoff percentage drop by 15.5 points, which is the biggest drop of the week.

The Jays are steadily improving (they entered the week with a record of 24-16 since May 1), and they're playoff percentage is up to 79.3. They've achieved that despite playing to date the toughest schedule in all of baseball.

The Sox are on pace to score almost 1,000 runs this season, which is an astounding feat in the current run-scoring environment. Thanks to spotty pitching, though, SportsLine sees them falling short of 90 wins this season.

The Indians are an MLB-best 9-3 in June, and SportsLine presently gives them a 90.3 percent chance of making the playoffs. Bear in mind, they've done it while getting just 43 plate appearances from Michael Brantley.

By the time you read this, the O's may have already hit their 100th home run of the season. They pace the bigs on that front. Is this year Kevin Gausman finally establishes himself as a major-league starter? It's looking that way.

Here come the Cardinals? They've won five straight series, including a road sweep of the Pirates. In the NL, just the Cubs and Nationals have better run differentials.

The M's went 3-4 this past week, but circumstances elsewhere pushed their playoff percentage up by more than 13 points. SportsLine expects Seattle to play .549 ball the rest of the way, which is tops in the division.

The Mets are in the mix in the NL East, and SportsLine gives them better than even odds of making the playoffs. Hurting their outlook, though, is that to date they've played one of the easiest schedules in all of baseball.

Yes, the Royals are hanging around once again despite a sub-optimal rotation. But even the KC model has its limits. Maybe Danny Duffy will be the rotation stabilizer they so badly need? Right now SportsLine isn't optimistic, as it projects the reigning champs for just 83.5 wins.

Dallas Keuchel's steep and sudden decline continues to be the story for Houston. The Astros entered the week having clawed their way to within two games of the .500 mark, but then they went 2-5 against the Rangers and Rays.

The Tigers entered the week having won eight of 11, and as a result they've taken some steps forward. Since last week, Detroit added 8.0 points to their playoff percentage, improved their projected win total by 6.1, and leaped seven spots in the rankings.

Getting swept at home by the Cardinals was a grave blow, as was the loss of Francisco Cervelli to injury. Right now, SportsLine gives the Bucs just a 3.6 percent chance of making the playoffs.

James Shields hasn't delivered since joining the Sox, and it's possible the back of the rotation is going to remain a concern. SportsLine sees the Sox as a winning team going forward, albeit just barely.

SportsLine pegs the Yanks for 80.5 wins right now. That means the Yankees may endure their first losing season since 1992.

Typically, the Rockies have trouble winning on the road. This season, however, they're 13-16 at Coors Field, and they've been outscored in home games by a margin of 196 to 166.

Look at the Rays' run differential, and they ought to be a game above .500. They're playing a bit shy of that, though. Potentially, there's a defining stretch of schedule ahead, as they'll play their next 20 games against the Mariners, Giants, Indians, Orioles, Red Sox, and Tigers.

It's the rotation that's dragged down the Snakes thus far. One glimmer of hope is that Zack Greinke has shown signs of rounding into form. They've climbed two spots since last week.

The Marlins dropped four spots in the rankings thanks to a 2-4 week. However, they lost just 1.5 points off their playoff percentage.

The Phillies were staying afloat by virtue of an unsustainable record in one-run games, They're still 15-6 in such games, but they're just 2-11 when the margin of victory/defeat is five or more runs. They entered the week on a four-game losing streak.

The Padres are one of six teams that SportsLine gives a 0.0 percent chance of making the playoffs. Keeping unfortunate company with the Pads are the Braves, Twins, Reds, A's, and Angels.

A 4-2 week has the Brew Crew within spitting distance of .500. That's helped them climb two spots in the rankings and add more than five wins to their projected total.

The A's last had a winning record on April 30, when they were 13-12. Since then, they've gone 13-24. SportsLine gives them a 0.0 chance of reaching the playoffs.

The Angels have played .429 ball to date, and moving forward SportsLine expects them to win at a .432 clip. So they are who we thought they were. Tim Lincecum will make his Angels debut this weekend.

How are the Reds one of the worst teams in baseball? Largely because they're running a 5.50 ERA as a team.

It's June, and already the Twins have been outscored by the opposition by 105 runs. That's how you wind up on pace for 112 losses.

Yes, the Braves remain at the bottom of the pond for another week. But there's some good news! The Braves are playing .290 ball and thus on pace for 47 wins this season. However, SportsLine tabs them for 54 wins. So there's that!