Power Ratings: Are the Sox most likely to prevail in the East?

We've dipped our toes into the second half of the 2016 season, so let's take an updated look at how the SportsLine Projection Model sees things when it comes to the best and worst teams in baseball.

These Power Ratings are based on results to date and underlying indicators, of course, and the remaining games on the schedule have been simulated thousands of times to give us a dose of future outlook.

The big movers this week?

The Red Sox, who off the field made a sorely needed play to bolster the rotation. It's tough at the top of the AL East, but Boston may be poised to emerge on top.

Elsewhere, the Giants have stumbled since the break, and it's cost them in the eyes of SportsLine. No one, though, has taken a harder hit than the White Sox.

On to this week's Power Ratings ...

Taking two out of the three from a team like the Rangers is an excellent way to start the second half. Dexter Fowler and Jorge Soler should be back soon, which will help the outfield depth and, in Fowler's case, the top of the lineup. Seeing how Jake Arrieta responds to the extra rest will be critical.

Right now, SportsLine tabs the Indians to win at a .604 clip the rest of the way, which is tops in all of baseball. The results to date have been excellent, of course, and Michael Brantley recently began a minor-league rehab assignment.

SportsLine presently forecasts the Nats to win 97.5 games, so call it 98. That would constitute a 15-game improvement over 2015 and surely put Dusty Baker in the discussion to win NL Manager of the Year for the fourth time.

The start of the second half has not gone swimmingly for the team with the best record in baseball, as they were swept by the post-Pomeranz Padres. Up next are five straight games on the road against the Red Sox and Yankees.

The O's continue to thrive on power and their bullpen, but how long can they remain in playoff position despite such a bad rotation? SportsLine is pretty much on board, as the Model gives Baltimore a playoff percentage of 72.3.

The Jays returned from the break and dropped two of three in Oakland, which is why they've lost more than 10 points from their playoff percentage. Even so, that playoff percentage remains high at 80.3.

They have Drew Pomeranz in the fold, and David Price has shown some signs of rounding into form. The added rotation depth has allowed them to fortify the bullpen with Clay Buchholz and, most likely at some point soon, Joe Kelly. Pair all that with a powerhouse offense, and you've got a real threat in the AL. SportsLine now sees them as the favorites in the East.

SportsLine continues to be bullish on the Dodgers, as they are projected to play .584 baseball the rest of the way (versus a projected rest-of-season winning percentage of .548 for the Giants). Clayton Kershaw's return is in sight, and Brandon McCarthy has been excellent since coming back from Tommy John surgery.

Have the Rangers been a bit lucky thus far? They're 17 games over .500 right now, but they've outscored the opposition by just 11 runs. SportsLine still likes Texas to win the AL West, but it also expects the Astros to have a better record the rest of the way.

The Pirates remain very much relevant, especially in the NL wild card hunt. Jameson Taillon came off the DL on Tuesday, which means Taillon and Gerrit Cole will both be a part of the rotation, and Tyler Glasnow could be recalled in the coming days. That's a lot of young upside for the stretch drive.

The Cardinals have mostly tread water, but SportsLine continues to love the underlying skill level in St. Louis. The Cards projected rest-of-season winning percentage of .603 is tops in the NL. Considering the inconsistent starting pitching and spotty team defense in tandem with Tevor Rosenthal's season-long meltdown, I'll take the under on that figure.

The Astros continue to surge. Since bottoming out at 11 games below .500 on May 22, Houston has gone 33-14 and worked their way back into the playoff hunt. At present, SportsLine gives them a better than 50-50 chance of making the postseason.

Don't sleep on the Tigers. This week, it's a mixed bag, as they climb in the rankings but lose ground when it comes to their playoff percentage. By early August, though, they should have Daniel Norris, Jordan Zimmermann, and J.D. Martinez all back from the DL.

Matt Harvey is done for the year, but the consoling knowledge is that he'd been ineffective prior to his surgery. Now it's on the other young arms to stay healthy and for Bartolo Colon to continue defying his age. SportsLine isn't optimistic, as it gives the Mets just north of a 1-in-3 chance of getting back to the playoffs.

They've underplayed their run differential by four full games, but SportsLine sees the M's as just a .500 team from this point forward. In a related matter, they're a .500 team right now.

The Fish just keep hanging around. Taking two out of three in St. Louis was a fine way to start the second half, and seven of their next 10 come against the Phillies. Yes, Miami is a genuine playoff threat, thanks largely to Jose Fernandez and one of the best outfields in baseball.

Since last week the reigning champs have lost 1.7 points off their playoff percentage. That might not sound like much, but it pushed their current mark below 10 percent. Considering K.C. right now is 8.0 games behind the Indians -- in third place -- and 4.5 games out of wild card position, that sounds reasonable.

Nobody took it on the chin this past week quite like the White Sox. They got swept by the lowly Angels, and they've scored a total of exactly one run in their past three games. As a consequence, the ChiSox have shed 12.0 points off their playoff percentage and dropped six spots in the rankings.

Will they trade Carlos Gonzalez or won't they? Given CarGo's past injury concerns, it's probably time to do it now that he's enjoying a long stretch of productivity. Additionally, that once burdensome contract expires after the 2017 season, which should add to his appeal on the market.

To hear SportsLine tell it, the Yankees should definitely lead toward flipping veterans at the deadline. Right now, the Model pegs them for 76.6 wins and gives them just a 0.4 percent chance of making the postseason. Looking at the strength at the top of the division at the current Yanks roster, that sounds about right.

Let's sum up the state of the Angels: They have the best player in baseball, and they also have a 0.1 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The A's are the highest-ranked team to be given no chance of making the postseason by SportsLine. So that's something. The intrigue for this season is all about whether Rich Hill and Sonny Gray are moved before the non-waiver deadline.

Drew Pomeranz is gone for a nifty return, and thus G.M. A.J. Preller continues what's been a pretty good pivot since his highly questionable moves prior to the 2015 season. Ideally, Preller won't be done putting them in position for a brighter future.

Will Jonathan Lucroy stay or go? That's the question in Milwaukee as we march toward the non-waiver deadline. Right now, SportsLine projects them to wind up with the seventh overall pick of the 2017 draft, but they could wind up higher if Lucroy goes by Aug. 1.

The Phillies are seven games under .500 entering the week, but their run differential suggests they should be something more like 19 games under .500. Maybe that's why SportsLine projects that only the Reds and Braves will have worse winning percentages over the remainder of the season.

Shelby Miller, for whom the Diamondbacks paid dearly in trade this past offseason, was recently optioned back to the minors. That's the 2016 season in a nutshell for Arizona. SportsLine gives the Snakes a zero chance of making the playoffs.

Since June 15, the Rays have gone 4-24, which obviously has eliminated them from contention. The problem leading up to the deadline is that their most tradable assets in the rotation have leaked a lot of value this season. Not good times in St. Pete.

The state of the Twins is such that long-time GM Terry Ryan has been terminated from his second tenure as GM. The upside is that SportsLine still expects the 2016 edition to (narrowly) avoid the franchise's first 100-loss season since 1982.

The big question for the Reds is what kind of return they can get for Jay Bruce and possibly Zack Cozart leading up to the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline.

By current winning percentage, the Braves are on pace for 106 losses. SportsLine, though, pegs them for "just" 102. However, if the upcoming non-waiver trade deadline leads them to part with Julio Teheran, then that 102 figure may wind up being too optimistic.