Power Ratings: Are the Rangers about to make a run behind Darvish?
Rank: Numerical rank based on Power. Power: Each team's neutral win% determined when each team plays every other team on a neutral field. Each team is actually made up of 5 versions based on their #1 to #5 starters. Every match-up involves the same numerical starter (ie. Team's No. 1 starter faces every other Team's No. 1 starter). Power x 162: The PWR% multiplied by 162 games. This makes it easier to determine how good a team is for baseball purposes. Win Projection: This is the team's current forecast for season win totals, which includes actual wins plus projected wins. Playoff%: The team's chances of making the playoffs. |
June is upon us, so now it's time for our weekly look at how SportsLine views the current landscape in Major League Baseball.
You can probably guess the team at the top of the heap, but we're seeing some movement elsewhere.
Specifics?
The lowly Braves are no longer the lowliest of all, and the Giants are continuing their strong upward trend.
Now let's dig in to this week's data ...
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
1 | 66.1% | 107.2 | 107.5 | 99.9% | +0.2% | +2.4 |
Remember the Cubs' recent rough patch? Well, they've now ripped off six wins in a row and are back to playing .714 ball. In matters related, the SportsLine Projection Model now gives the Cubs a playoff percentage of 100 and projects them for 107 wins.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
2 | 60.8% | 98.4 | 95.4 | 89.0% | +26.2% | +5.7 |
They're getting overshadowed by the Cubs, but the Giants are now on pace for 98 wins. A 5-1 week helped their playoff percentage improve by a whopping 26.2 points, making San Fran our biggest positive movers on that front.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
3 | 57.6% | 93.3 | 98.0 | 95.5% | -3.3% | -2.3 |
Their +51 run differential ranks (a very distant) second in the NL to the Cubs. Daniel Murphy continues to hit like an MVP candidate, as does Bryce Harper. Yes, the race is tight with the Mets, but SportsLine likes the Nats much better, as the Projection Model right now gives D.C. an 77.1 percent chance of winning the NL East.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
4 | 56.8% | 92.1 | 91.5 | 80.8% | -0.8% | -1.4 |
The Boston offense continues to roll. The Sox are the first team in baseball to score 300 runs, and no AL team is particularly close to them. David Ortiz's age-defiance continues to amaze, and the youthful trio of Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. is the envy of pretty much every team in baseball.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
5 | 56.5% | 91.6 | 90.0 | 57.7% | +4.5% | +1.5 |
The Dodgers are now projected for 90 wins, and their playoff percentage continues to march toward 60. On the downside, SportsLine gives them, roughly speaking, just a 1-in-4 chance of beating out the Giants for the NL West title.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
6 | 56.1% | 90.9 | 88.0 | 56.5% | -1.8% | -1.2 |
Before giving way to the Red Sox, the O's had spent 45 days in first place this season. It's a challenging stretch ahead, as Baltimore will play its next 20 games against the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Royals, and Rangers. If they come through that still in the mix, then they may have staying power.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
7 | 55.1% | 89.2 | 90.7 | 60.9% | -16.3% | -1.4 |
The NL's best offense? You can make the case for the Cardinals. The rotation, though, has been a surprising weak spot, as the Cards rank ninth in NL rotation WAR and 11th in rotation ERA. SportsLine, though, continues to buy the Cardinals over the long haul, as they're one of nine teams with a playoff percentage north of 60.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
8 | 54.8% | 88.7 | 90.5 | 79.1% | +14.0% | +0.5 |
Here come the Indians? They've climbed three spots and added 14 points to their playoff percentage, which now stands at 79.1. They're pegged for 91 wins at present.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
9 | 54.6% | 88.5 | 90.3 | 79.8% | -13.2% | -3.7 |
Things were going generally swimmingly for Seattle, but then they got swept at home by the Twins, which is something that should not happen to a good team in 2016. The good news is that SportsLine sees the M's as the heavy favorites in what appears to be a muddled AL West.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
10 | 53.9% | 87.3 | 85.6 | 22.4% | +14.6% | +4.3 |
The overall picture is a mixed bag for the Buccos. On the one hand, they're up five spots in the Power Ratings, and they have a top 10 PWRx162. On the downside, SportsLine gives them just a 22.4 percent chance of making the postseason.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
11 | 53.8% | 87.1 | 87.4 | 55.1% | -22.7% | -4.4 |
Chicago's utter collapse continues to pick up steam. On May 9, they were 23-10 and up by six games in the AL Central. Since that high point, they've gone 4-15 and fallen to third place. The sweep in Kansas City, in which they blew late-inning leads in all three games, was particularly lacerating. Since last week, the ChiSox have seen their playoff percentage tumble by 22.7 points.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
12 | 53.6% | 86.9 | 91.1 | 63.7% | -11.6% | -0.7 |
No, SportsLine doesn't like the Mets' chances of repeating as NL East champs, but it does give them a 63.7 percent chance of being a part of the postseason party. Elsewhere on the positive front, Matt Harvey looked like his old self on Monday. Getting him back to form will be huge for the Mets.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
13 | 53.6% | 86.9 | 90.0 | 71.8% | +5.0% | -0.4 |
For the Jays, 2016 has not been without its fits and starts. However, SportsLine projects them to play .579 ball over the rest of the season, which is highest mark of any AL team.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
14 | 51.7% | 83.8 | 84.5 | 34.1% | +19.3% | 2.3 |
Yu Darvish returned to great effect, and he'll be a boon to a rotation that's been surprisingly strong thus far. The road ahead? SportsLine expects the Rangers to win at just a .493 clip the rest of the way.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
15 | 51.3% | 83.1 | 81.0 | 12.6% | -10.7% | -3.3 |
Tough week for the Rays, as they drop three of four to the Marlins and two of three to the Yankees. As a consequence, their playoff chances dipped 10.7 points.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
16 | 50.8% | 82.4 | 78.8 | 6.8% | -4.8% | -2.7 |
Buoyed by a 16-7 record at home, the Royals are (perhaps momentarily) on top in the AL Central. The key, of course, will be winning without Mike Moustakas for the rest of the season and Alex Gordon for the next few weeks.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
17 | 49.7% | 80.5 | 78.6 | 5.6% | +4.0% | +2.7 |
A 3-3 week against AL East rivals bumps the Yanks up a spot and improves their playoff percentage by four points. After their current road trip ends, they'll play 18 straight against losing teams, and therein lies the Yanks' best chance to make up ground.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
18 | 48.7% | 78.9 | 79.7 | 3.5% | 0.0% | +1.2 |
The best outfield in baseball? Give it to the Pirates, but the Marlins are in the discussion, especially now that Giancarlo Stanton seems to be coming out of his funk. Since last week, they've added more than a win to their projected total, which pushes them closer to looking like a .500 team.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
19 | 48.4% | 78.4 | 81.4 | 16.0% | +11.0% | +2.6 |
On May 22, the Astros bottomed out, as their loss to the Rangers dropped them to a season-worst 11 games below .500. Since then they’ve gone 6-1, and this week they've climbed two spots in the Power Ratings.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
20 | 47.2% | 76.5 | 81.1 | 6.2% | -5.4% | -0.4 |
The Rox endured a 2-5 week against tough competition, which cost them one spot in the rankings and a little more than five points of playoff percentage. Overall, they've dropped nine of 13, but SportsLine still gives them a not-insignificant 6.2 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
21 | 46.9% | 75.9 | 75.2 | 0.5% | -4.7% | -4.0 |
The Diamondbacks never profiled as a genuine contender, despite their conspicuous offseason, but much may hinge on whether Shelby Miller returns from his DL stint in vintage form. As you can see, SportsLine gives them almost no chance of making the postseason.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
22 | 46.1% | 74.7 | 73.5 | 0.9% | +0.4% | +0.3 |
The Tigers continue to tread water despite disappointing numbers from Justin Upton and spotty pitching from starters not named Jordan Zimmermann. On the upside, Michael Fulmer showed his substantial potential last time out. Detroit continues to linger in the race, but SportsLine remains bearish on them, as has been the case all season.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
23 | 45.1% | 73.1 | 75.2 | 0.6% | -4.2% | -4.6 |
The young rotation remains interesting, but the prevailing reality is that the Phillies have an absolutely terrible offense. Furthermore, their run differential of -44 suggests they're playing well above their heads. You've started to see regression take hold, as the Phils dropped five of six last week.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
24 | 44.7% | 72.3 | 72.6 | 0.6% | +0.1% | -0.5 |
The Angels this past week went 2-4 against the Rangers and Astros, but their indicators didn't move much at all. Despite the presence of Mike Trout, they remain distant playoff longshots, with a playoff percentage of just 0.6.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
25 | 44.5% | 72.0 | 68.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | +2.5 |
On April 22, the A's were three games above .500 and tied for first place in the AL West. Since then, they've gone 13-22 and fallen to 7.5 games out of first. The good news is that they'll play seven of their next 10 against the Twins, Brewers, and Reds.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
26 | 41.7% | 67.5 | 67.7 | 0.0% | -0.1% | -3.1 |
The pitching has been fine -- downright good in certain corners -- but right now the San Diego offense ranks 15th in the NL in batting average, 14th in OBP, 13th in slugging percentage, and 13th in runs scored. Matt Kemp is running a .238 OBP at the moment.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
27 | 41.0% | 66.4 | 63.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | +4.2 |
Phil Hughes has pitched his way out of the bullpen, and the offense is running a team OBP of .304. Oh, and the team ERA is approaching 5.00. This is just a terrible team with a manager and GM who seem ill-equipped to turn it around.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
28 | 40.3% | 65.2 | 64.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | +1.7 |
The Brewers notched their first sweep of the season (albeit one over the Braves), and they went 5-1 for the week. The story of their season will be whether they decide to shop Jonathan Lucroy and Ryan Braun leading up to the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
29 | 34.7% | 56.2 | 56.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | +3.6 |
Yes, they're freshly out of last place, but don't sell these Braves short: they're still on pace for an MLB-worst 113 losses (and the top overall pick in the 2017 draft!). On the upside, the Braves are now 5-1 against the Marlins this year.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
30 | 34.4% | 55.7 | 52.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.6 |
In some ways, it's not surprising that the Reds would eventually make their way to the bottom. This, after all, is a team that lost 98 games a season ago and in recent months has bid adieu to the valuable likes of Todd Frazier, Aroldis Chapman, and Mike Leake. Cincy has given up a whopping 303 runs on the season. Next worst? The Diamondbacks at 271.
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