Picking every Week 1 NFL game, plus a six-team parlay

As the NBA and NHL seasons wind down and the never-ending baseball season kicks into high gear, now's a good time to remind you the NFL will be back soon.

We're less than four months away from the greatest gambling season of all. And that merits discussion and celebration.

Would you believe me if I told you I already have a six-team parlay in for Week 1? 

I'm so jacked for NFL football, I couldn't stop myself from writing up every Week 1 game.

Picks are subject to change. You can choose to hold me to them, but that would make you a moron.

Here we go!

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (Pick 'Em)

Seriously? This is the line for the season opener? This is the line for the Super Bowl 50 rematch? Didn't we just watch the big game? Didn't we see that the Panthers had zero chance of blocking Von Miller?

I don't understand how the Broncos aren't favored.

Oh wait, I do understand. It's because the Broncos likely will start Mark "butt fumble" Sanchez. And yeah, Sanchez isn't good. But was Peyton Manning all that great when he threw for 118 yards in the Super Bowl?

Give me the better defense playing at home. This is as easy as money gets. Nick's pick: Denver

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) at Atlanta Falcons

I'm not sure what we'll get from these two teams in 2016, but I'm definitely more bullish on the Buccaneers. I still don't think Atlanta has a pass rush and I don't trust Matt Ryan's weapons in the passing game outside of Julio Jones.

I don't feel great about this pick, but I'll take the points. Nick's pick: Tampa Bay

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Tennessee Titans

Normally, I love to take home underdogs. Especially when everyone and their mother will lay the points with the Vikes.

But here's the thing: The Vikings are good. The Titans are not. The Vikings have a good coach (Mike Zimmer). The Titans have a bad coach (Mike Mularkey).

While I prefer Marcus Mariota to Teddy Bridgewater, the latter doesn't have to do as much to win. 

I could easily see myself pivoting towards the Titans if the line climbs to 3.5, but for now, I'll lay the three comfortably. Nick's pick: Minnesota

Cleveland Browns (+7) at Philadelphia Eagles

Ah, the Cleveland Browns. The NFL's ultimate punchline. Actually, the Browns could be the biggest punchline in all of sports.

As a result, everyone will be betting the Eagles. After all, who wants to lay their hard-earned money on Robert Griffin III and the sorry-ass Browns?

Me. I do.

The Eagles stink and they don't deserve to be a touchdown favorite over anyone. The Browns aren't good, but they're good enough to stay competitive here. Nick's pick: Cleveland

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (+1)

It's impossible to pick this game without knowing who the Jets quarterback will be.

If it's Ryan Fitzpatrick and this number holds steady? Play on Gang Green.

If it's Geno Smith or Christian Hackenberg? Back up the Brinks truck on the Bengals.

Staying away for now. Nick's pick: No thanks

Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints (-1)

This is my absolute favorite Week 1 play. The Raiders are only one-point underdogs in the Superdome?

The hype for the Raiders is officially out of control. I know they've stunk for a while and that the NFL is better when they're good. But aren't we rushing this just a bit?

If the game was in Oakland, I'd pick the Raiders to win. But the Saints have an improved defense (not that it could be worse) and still have Drew Brees at quarterback.

Provided Brees is healthy, this is easy. Gimme the Saints. Nick's pick: New Orleans

San Diego Chargers (+7) at Kansas City Chiefs

This line is based on how both teams ended last year.

The Chargers were an unequivocal disaster. We thought they'd leave San Diego; that didn't happen. We thought they'd fire coach Mike McCoy; that didn't happen. They have an entire offseason to get healthy, and added pieces in both the draft and free agency.

The Chiefs ended the regular season on a 10-game win streak and made it to the divisional round of the postseason before falling to the Patriots. It was an impressive effort that has some thinking this could be a Super season in K.C.

But with pass rusher Justin Houston's status in doubt, I don't believe the Chiefs are seven points better than the improved Chargers.

I'll gladly take the Bolts with the points. Nick's pick: San Diego

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

Let me get this straight: The Ravens, with John Harbaugh and a returning Joe Flacco, are less than a field goal favorite at home against Rex Ryan, Tyrod Taylor and the Bills?

LOL. Easy pick on Baltimore. Nick's pick: Baltimore

Chicago Bears (+6) at Houston Texans

I fully admit I could change my mind on this pick 50 times before Week 1 rolls around. But for now, I'll grab the points with a gutty Bears team.

Are you convinced the Texans are world beaters? I love their offseason, signing quarterback Brock Osweiler and running back Lamar Miller and drafting speedy receivers Will Fuller and Braxton Miller.

But I'm not convinced just yet. So I'll take the points, for now. Nick's pick: Chicago

Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4)

I could see anything happening in this game.

Would I be shocked if the Packers won by 17? No.

Would I be shocked if the Jaguars kept it very close or eked out a win? No.

So the only play, for now, is to grab the points. Nick's pick: Jacksonville

Miami Dolphins (+8) at Seattle Seahawks

Betting on Ryan Tannehill in Seattle has me like ...

"Now I lay me down to sleep; I pray the lord my soul to keep; And if I die before I wake; I pray the lord my soul to take." Nick's pick: Miami

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)

Regular SportsLine readers and listeners know I'm from New York and a huge Giants fan. So it kills me to go against my team.

But this is a lay-it or-don't-play-it scenario. Dallas is the better team and returns quarterback Tony Romo. And the Cowboys are playing at home.

Money is more important than fandom. Nick's pick: Dallas

Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts (-5)

Vegas has no idea what will happen in this game, hence this strange spread. And if Vegas doesn't have a clue, I certainly don't.

If the Colts can keep Andrew Luck upright, they should win easily. So that's where I'll go, for now. Nick's pick: Indianapolis

New England Patriots (+5.5) at Arizona Cardinals

This spread is obviously complicated by the status of Patriots quarterback Tom Brady. Will he play? Will he remain suspended? Will Deflategate ever go away? I cannot answer these questions.

For the purposes of this exercise, let's assume Brady will miss the game, and backup Jimmy Garoppolo starts in his stead. I still like the Pats with the points.

Remember how brutal Carson Palmer looked in the playoffs this past January? I'm not convinced he's going to be a world beater in 2016. And Bill Belichick is still the best coach in football.

Maybe the Pats won't win, but I think they keep it reasonably close. Nick's pick: New England

Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins (+3)

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+2)

I'm way too humble to tell you my record last year picking MNF games was 12-3-2. I would never brag about that or give myself a nickname like #MrMondayNight.

Or, I'm incredibly self-centered and I will do all of those things.

I mean, DAMN. 12-3-2! I was basically a handicapping legend last year. Which probably guarantees I'll spit the bit this season, but hey, that's part of the fun, right?

I love me some home underdogs. And last year, I went 2-0 in Week 1 MNF with two home dogs. So let’s go back to the well.

The Steelers are good, but they aren't a field goal better than the 'Skins on the road. And that line will probably tick up to 3.5. And the Rams as a road favorite against anyone is laughable.

#MrMondayNight rides again with the 'Skins and 49ers. Nick's pick(s): Washington and San Francisco

Nick's way-too-early, six-team Week 1 NFL parlay

Broncos (Pick 'Em), Saints (-1), Browns (+7), Chargers (+7), Redskins (+3), 49ers (+2)