The Purdue Boilermakers enter the season with high expectations, but they start off with a tough Big Ten home battle with the Penn State Nittany Lions on Thursday night at Ross-Ade Stadium. The Boilermakers posted nine victories last season, their most since 2003, and knocked off top-five teams Iowa and Michigan State. Now they kick off with a Nittany Lions team that went 7-6 in 2021 but has beaten the Boilermakers nine straight times. 

Kickoff in West Lafayette, Ind. is set for 8 p.m. ET. Penn State is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Penn State vs. Purdue odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the Over/Under for total points is set at 52.5 (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our college football odds page). 

Before you make any Purdue vs. Penn State picks, you NEED to check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It enters Week 1 of the 2022 college football season on a 45-32 run on all top-rated college football spread and money-line picks that dates back to 2021. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

The model knows the Boilermakers have QB Aidan O'Connell back and that they won five of their final six games last season, with the only loss to Ohio State. O'Connell leads a Purdue passing attack that ranked second in the Big Ten last season, averaging 355.4 yards per game. The senior threw for 3,712 yards and 28 TDs in 2021. Charlie Jones, O'Connell's childhood friend who starred as a return man and caught 21 passes for Iowa last season, joins a receiving corps that also features TE Payne Durham. The senior had 45 catches for 467 yards and six scores last season. Running back King Doerue ran for 533 yards.

The model also has considered that the Nittany Lions have dominated this series. They crushed the Boilermakers 62-24 the last time they visited Ross-Ade, back in 2016. That was the most points scored by a visiting team in the stadium's history (since 1924). They also have a steady QB of their own in Sean Clifford, who topped 3,000 yards and threw just eight interceptions last season. Parker Washington should step up as the top receiver after posting 64 receptions and 820 yards in 2021. Penn State's defense allowed less than 200 passing yards per game last year and had 14 interceptions, both marks third-best in the Big Ten.

The model has broken down the Purdue vs. Penn State matchup from every angle, and we can tell you the model is leaning Under the total. It also says one side of the spread hits almost 60% of simulations! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any college football picks.

So who wins Purdue vs. Penn State on Thursday night? And which side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time? Join SportsLine now to find out, all from the model that has crushed its top-rated college football picks against the spread!