The North Carolina Tar Heels and the San Diego State Aztecs link up in a First Four matchup on Tuesday. The winner of this contest gets the No. 11 seed and advances to play the No. 6 seed Ole Miss Rebels on Friday. The Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Meanwhile, the Aztecs are 2-3 ATS in their past five outings.

Tipoff from the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio, is set for 9:10 p.m. ET. UNC is a 4.5-point favorite in the latest North Carolina vs. San Diego State odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 142.5.

Before making any North Carolina vs. San Diego State picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-166 roll (+2025) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds! Anyone following could have seen HUGE returns!

The model has simulated North Carolina vs. San Diego State 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it also says one side of the spread cashes in nearly 60% of simulations!

So who wins North Carolina vs. San Diego State, and which side of the spread cashes in nearly 60% of simulations? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that is 228-166 (+2025) on top-rated college basketball pick and has nailed 24 double-digit upsets!