NL Central, 2.0: It remains in the cards for St. Louis

Let's check back in on what SportsLine says about the National League Central, with an eye toward how things have changed since last time.

After all, spring training play is in full swing, and, as such, injuries are happening, and position battles are taking shape. Time for a reset ...

St. Louis Cardinals (93.3-68.7):  The Cardinals have mostly held steady since last time.

That's despite, it would seem, the loss of Jhonny Peralta to a serious thumb injury. Potentially, Peralta could miss the first half of the season, which, needless to say, is a significant consideration.

Right now, the Cardinals seem disinclined to pursue an outside solution, and that means internal options like Jedd Gyorko, Greg Garcia, and Aledmys Diaz will be competing for time at the position.

Gyorko is probably the default option, but he's not a defensive fit, particularly behind a pitching staff that emphasizes the ground ball.

Diaz, the 25-year-old Cuban, provides the most upside of the three. Consider this to be one of the most interesting battles of spring.

Chicago Cubs (87.8-74.2):  As you can see, SportsLine isn't as high on the Cubs as, oh, almost everyone else.

This, after all, is a 97-win team that over the winter added the likes of Jason Heyward, John Lackey, and Ben Zobrist.

So what gives?

Well, the Cubs in 2015 over-performed their run differential by quite a bit and their batted-ball outcomes to a slightly lesser extent. So their baseline might not be quite as high as you'd think.

As well, there's the Plexiglass Principle to be considered. The Cubs last season improved upon their 2014 record by a whopping 24 games. History strongly suggests that kind of steep trajectory doesn't carry forward, or even level off. Rather, it trends in the opposite direction.

To be sure, the Cubs have tried to shield themselves against this phenomenon by not resting on their laurels and bringing in those notable free agents mentioned above.

This is going to be a very good team and may be, on paper, the best team in baseball. But the Plexiglass Principle is a real and undeniable thing, and as such most observers may be a bit too high on the Cubs heading into 2016.

Taking the under on Westgate's Cubs O/U of 93 wins is actually defensible.

Pittsburgh Pirates (87.3-74.7):  The Buccos picked up a little more than half a win since last time.

Jung Ho Kang will, as expected, open the season on the DL as he continues to recover from knee surgery. However, he's pegged for a mid- to late-April return.

The Pirates have also decided to make Kang the regular third baseman upon his return, which means Josh Harrison will slide over to second base. That's a good thing, in that it will remove some of the post-Neil Walker uncertainty from the position.

Kang's knee should be better suited to third rather than shortstop as well. To provide a bridge, the Pirates have brought in the useful bat of David Freese. As late-hour fixes go, Freese is a fine one.

Milwaukee Brewers (72.1-89.9):  The Brewers lose roughly a win since last time, and speaking of the Brewers getting worse, how long will Jonathan Lucroy stick around?

According to recent reports, the rebuilding Brewers may look to move their cornerstone catcher at some point during spring training. That makes sense, as teams are generally loath to acquire a new starting catcher mid-season, what with the value of having a catcher who's deeply familiar with the pitching staff.

Lucroy this spring is putting up solid numbers against pitching that grades out as somewhere between Triple-A and major-league quality, per Baseball-Reference (i.e., not bad by spring standards).

A full season without Lucroy will worsen the Brewers outlook for 2016, even though such a trade would be in their long-term interests.

Cincinnati Reds (66.7-95.3):  As SportsLine sees it, the Reds will compete for the worst record in baseball this season and, by extension, "compete" for the top overall pick in 2017.

Relative to last time, the projection is almost exactly the same. The needle will get moved again if, for instance, Jay Bruce is traded.

Elsewhere, pitching prospect and rotation hopeful Michael Lorenzen is sidelined with elbow soreness. Obviously, we know what the worst-case scenario is when it comes to elbow discomfort. Here's hoping it doesn't come to that.

Either way, it's a blow to the Reds' rotation depth.