NL: Cards the best bet and the best value

In the 2015 MLB playoffs, the divisional round of play is upon us, so let’s take this opportunity to see how the Sportsline projection model matches up with the odds on the NL side of the bracket.

The Dodgers in the regular season recorded "just" the fourth-best record in the senior circuit, but both the oddsmakers and the Sportsline model like them to win the pennant.

There's a great deal of compression when it comes to the odds on the NL side, but the Dodgers at 2/1 to win the pennant and 5/1 to win the World Series are the favorites. That's not surprising given that Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke front the rotation (they'd make three of five starts if the NLDS against the Mets goes the distance).

As well, the Dodgers' offense has been improved by replacing Jimmy Rollins at shortstop with high-ceiling rookie Corey Seager. That Dodger lineup is also as healthy as its been in some time (without being fully healthy, it should be noted).

The Cubs, fresh off their wild-card triumph over the Pirates, are 5/2 to win the pennant, but they match the Dodgers at 5/1 when it comes to winning it all. On the World Series front, the Sportsline Projection Model is a little more bearish on the Cubs than are the bookmakers.

Sportsline gives the Cubs just a 10 percent chance to wind up hoisting the trophy. Given the strength of the likely AL representative and the fact that the Cubs won't be able to start ace Jake Arrieta on full rest until Game 3 of their NLDS match-up against the Cardinals, you should probably avoid the Cubs at 5/1 World Series odds.  

Speaking of the Cardinals, they of course barged to 100 wins in the regular season despite being denizens of baseball's toughest division. Oddsmakers give them 9/4 odds to win the pennant and 6/1 odds to win the World Series.

When it comes to coming out of the NL bracket, the Cardinals are faded a bit relative to the Dodgers, and Sportsline agrees, generally.

This very likely reflects the uncertainty surrounding the St. Louis rotation. Carlos Martinez is out for the remainder of the year. Adam Wainwright is back but seems bound for bullpen detail in the playoffs, and Michael Wacha has shown signs of fatigue-related decline, as the 24-year-old has easily eclipsed his previous workloads this season.

As well, the status of catcher/philosopher-king Yadier Molina (thumb) is unknown at present, and the drop-off from him to backup Tony Cruz is significant on all fronts.

That said, the Cardinals' value at the individual level is widely distributed (they're a 100-win team without a serious MVP or Cy Young candidate), and so they're better able to paper over injuries than are most rosters.

Let us not forget the Mets! Oddsmakers presently give the Mets 3/1 odds on winning the pennant and 7/1 odds when it comes to winning the World Series for the first time since 1986.

Sportsline, however, is a bit less enthused, as the Model gives the Mets just a 20.2 percent chance of winning the pennant (or, a tick less than the underdog Rangers' chances of coming out of the AL side) and a 9.1 percent chance of winning the entire affair.

At this point, I'd concur and say the Mets are to be avoided. Steven Matz is still laid up with a back injury and may give way to Bartolo Colon as the Game 4 starter in the NLDS against the Dodgers.

Noah Syndergaard is lined up to start Game 2 in L.A., and he's been a broadly worse pitcher on the road thus far — in terms of both run prevention and underlying indicators. It's too early in his career for those splits to have stabilized, but it's quite possible there's something to them.

Throw in the absence of valuable bench piece Juan Uribe, who'll miss the NLDS with a chest injury, and the Mets aren't in ideal shape.

Overall, there's not a true value play on the NL side, but the current odds may be giving the Cardinals short shrift, at least through the NLCS. Their roster depth, especially on the position player side, and the fact that they'll face a fully rested Arrieta just once in the NLDS are the key takeaways right now.