It's Questionable Motivation Week in the NFL as we enter the final week of the 2024 NFL regular season, with bettors forced to start their analysis with the motivation of each team in a matchup. Playoff teams with seeding locked in will usually rest players, and some have already announced their intentions to do so, while others that can improve seeding only marginally will be faced with whether to play starters and for how long with the possibility of a devastating injury to consider.

But even if a team that has everything to play for is up against what appears to be a lifeless eliminated team ready for the season to be over, or even against a playoff team resting players, that doesn't mean a blowout is in the cards. Favorites of more than 10 points in the final week of the season only cover around half the time historically, and it's hard to determine which underdogs show up to battle or which favorites may take the foot off the gas in the second half to save key players for the postseason.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm backing one team expected to rest key players and taking the Buffalo Bills -2 against the New England Patriots.

The Bills have one of the more capable backup QBs in the league in Mitchell Trubisky, a former No. 2 overall pick with more wins than losses as a starter and a career 73:48 TD:INT ratio. He has a great chance of having success against a Patriots defense that just allowed 40 points to the Chargers and has given up at least 24 points in six straight games. Resting teams also can't treat these games like the preseason due to limited roster size, which is only supplemented by two practice squad elevations per week. The Bills are deep at receiver and all of their RBs have shined at moments this season, so Trubisky has the weapons to put points on the board.

On the other side of the ball, defenses typically rotate players in and out more than the other side of the ball already, and even if the Bills backups are thrust into bigger roles in those rotations, they have quality depth up front to cause trouble for what's been an awful Patriots offensive line. Drake Maye is slated to start in this game, but if he gets banged up at all it make may sense for the team to pull him rather than risk a long-term injury. While I don't think you can count on teams in line to pick first overall to throw the final game of the season and keep their draft positioning, I do think the game matters more to the Bills despite resting players, as they have the chance to post a franchise-best 14-win season. Expect the coaches and the players on the field to take the game seriously in pursuit of that achievement, and I like them to get the win here.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert from 2017-23, going 636-534-34 against the spread to put me up about 49 units on those picks at SportsLine. I've also delivered a 56.7% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks from 2015-23, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.  

Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks for Week 18 below.

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