Three games are already in the books for Week 17, with the Chiefs clinching the No. 1 seed, the Ravens putting themselves one win away from securing the AFC North and the Seahawks staying in position to win their division by beating the Rams next week ... maybe. The Rams can still clinch the division this week if they beat the Cardinals and secure the strength of victory tiebreaker, but that would mean watching four of the following six teams secure victories as well this week: Minnesota, Buffalo, San Francisco, Washington, Cincinnati and Cleveland. If the favored Bills, Bengals and Commanders all win while the underdog Browns and 49ers lose, that would give the Packers-Vikings game the opportunity to not only determine the course of the NFC North in the final week, but the NFC West as well.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm fading a team dealing with major injury concerns and taking the Dallas Cowboys +9.5 against the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Vegas contests had to lock their lines in early this week due to the two Wednesday games, and that set up a situation where line movement could be a bigger factor than most weeks. The key example for this week is Cowboys-Eagles, where the market was treating Jalen Hurts being in concussion protocol as no big deal early in the week. I jumped on the Cowboys early, posting them as a SportsLine play on Tuesday morning at +9.5 (-105), as I saw an opportunity for the line to move significantly. As of this writing the line is at Eagles -7, and I believe there's still room for it to drop if Hurts isn't cleared from protocol by the end of the day. Also consider that backup Kenny Pickett is managing a rib injury that may curtail his effectiveness on Sunday.

The Cowboys are playing tough down the stretch and are one special teams snafu from winning five straight games heading into this one. Even if Hurts is cleared, I'm not ruling out the possibility Dallas keeps this a one-score game with the level of play from the team over the last month-plus.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert from 2017-23, going 636-534-34 against the spread to put me up about 49 units on those picks at SportsLine. I've also delivered a 56.7% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks from 2015-23, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.  

Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks for Week 17 below.

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