In what was effectively a playoff elimination match on Thursday with a first-half downpour limiting offenses, the Rams knocked down the 49ers 12-6 in Santa Clara with no touchdowns scored by either team. We had the Rams +3 and added the Under close to gametime when it became clear the weather could be an issue, and while both hit, the Rams avoided four potential interceptions on bad Matthew Stafford throws that could've turned that game into a 49ers blowout early.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm focusing on a matchup of two teams coming off a bye week and taking the Denver Broncos -4 against the Indianapolis Colts.

The Broncos get the full three from me for one of the better home-field advantages in the league, and that angle could be even more in play with an indoor Colts team coming to town, though conditions are expected to be mild. But the better reason for backing Denver here is the matchup, as the Broncos defense is third in yards per rush, which could put the game on the arm of Anthony Richardson.

That has typically not been great for Indy, with the quarterback completing just 47.4% of his passes, a rate that would put him alongside just Tim Tebow and Jamarcus Russell as QBs since 2006 to throw at least 200 passes in a season while completing less than half of them. He'll also have to overcome that baseline against a Broncos defense that also ranks third in net yards per pass attempt.

The Colts' only hope is seemingly to shut down the Broncos offense, but Bo Nix has progressed well throughout the season and has earned the benefit of the doubt at home against a pass defense that ranks 26th in net yards per pass attempt. I think this line should be Broncos -6 and even there I wouldn't be interested in backing the Colts in this matchup, so locking them in as a best bet at -4 is a pretty easy call.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert from 2017-23, going 636-534-34 against the spread to put me up about 49 units on those picks at SportsLine. I've also delivered a 56.7% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks from 2015-23, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.  

Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks for Week 15 below.

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