NFL: Underdogs dominate, favorites struggle during first month of 2019 season
Underdogs are enjoying real success in the early going.
Four weeks of the 2019 NFL season are in the books and, while the top of the league seems secure with Super Bowl favorites like the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs enjoying big-time success, the results haven't been easy to predict thus far. In fact, betting favorites struggled mightily within the first month of the campaign, with against-the-spread underdogs reigning supreme over the relatively small sample.
All told, underdogs are 38-24-1 against the spread this season, peaking with an 11-4 showing in Week.4. In fact, underdogs were 9-6 straight up in Week 4, with surprising outcomes like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking down the Los Angeles Rams and the Oakland Raiders going to Indianapolis and knocking off the Colts.
Several teams are enjoying considerable success when operating as underdogs this season, headlined by the Detroit Lions. After a disappointing tie (as a favorite) in the opener against the Arizona Cardinals, the Lions are 3-0 against the spread in an underdog role. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 3-1 against the spread, with every game coming as an underdog, and teams like the Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans have enjoyed the underdog role to the tune of 2-0 outcomes.
On the flip side, the Philadelphia Eagles have floundered when perceived as the favorite, posting an 0-3 record against the spread. A trio of teams, including the Chiefs, are 3-1 against the spread as favorites but, in general, it has been far better to live as an underdog than as a favorite through four weeks.
How much of that is sustainable is certainly up for debate but, as Week 5 approaches with an interesting slate, betting favorites will be aiming to counter-punch and get back to their covering ways.
