NFL Prediction Computer Simulates The NFC South
Three NFC South squads made the postseason in 2017 but none of them advanced to the conference championship game. That was the division in a microcosm -- solidly good teams lacking in greatness.
Although the SportsLine Prediction Model projects the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints to finish over .500 in 2018, none crack the 10-win mark. And then there are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are expected to finish a distant last with 6.1 victories.
Here's a look at what the computer is projecting in the NFC South.
New Orleans Saints
Projected wins: 9.5
Division win percentage: 48.6
Postseason percentage: 63.6
Atlanta Falcons
Projected wins: 8.7
Division win percentage: 25.9
Postseason percentage: 42.8
Carolina Panthers
Projected wins: 8.4
Division win percentage: 21.8
Postseason percentage: 36.2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected wins: 6.1
Division win percentage: 3.7
Postseason percentage: 7.4
CBS SPORTS: FLAWS FOR EACH NFL TEAM
Division preview: Based on SportsLine's prediction model, there's just about one game separating first-place New Orleans, second-place Atlanta and third-place Carolina, but only the Saints are projected to make the postseason.
CBS SPORTS: PETE PRISCO'S 2018 GAME PREDICTIONS
The Saints were within one monster defensive lapse away from an NFC Championship berth last season, but they're in a strong position to repeat as NFC South champs in 2018. Even at 39, quarterback Drew Brees is performing at an elite level for the Saints. With a healthy Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram manning the backfield, New Orleans doesn't need to rely on Brees to make big plays. The computer believes the Saints are in line for 9.5 wins in a highly competitive division and gives them essentially a 50/50 chance to win the NFC South.
Much like the Saints, the Falcons were one big play away from potentially advancing to the NFC Championship game after a fourth-down incompletion in the end zone against the Philadelphia Eagles. After a slow start, Atlanta finished a strong 10-6 in 2017, but is projected to notch only 8.7 wins in 2018. Worse is the playoff odds, which stand at 42.8 percent. The Falcons have the offensive weaponry to execute an even more potent air attack after drafting Calvin Ridley. Still, this team struggled last season putting away inferior teams. A more killer mindset could give the Falcons the edge they need to clinch the division.
CBS SPORTS: MADDEN '19 SHOCKING RESULTS
After an 11-5 campaign in 2017, surprisingly, the computer is expecting Carolina to win 8.4 games this season. Including the playoffs, four of the Panthers' six losses last season came at the hands of the Saints and Falcons -- three of them by double digits. A good test as to just how strong a squad the 2018 Panthers really are will come after their Week 6 game at the Eagles, in which they will have completed their four-game slate against NFC East foes. A 3-1 mark would be a good indication that Carolina is capable of butting heads with the big boys in the conference.
Schedule makers showed no love for the Buccaneers. In the first three weeks, Tampa has dates with the Saints, Eagles and Pittsburgh Steelers -- teams with a combined 37-11 record last year. That happens to coincide with quarterback Jameis Winston's three-game suspension under the league's personal conduct policy. The 6.1-win projection appears overly optimistic. The Bucs could easily find themselves in a deep hole they won't be able to dig their way out of.Â
The SportsLine Projection Model gives the clear edge to the Saints, but doesn't discount the Falcons and Panthers as division contenders. Will the three all be playing in the postseason? That answer is likely a big no. The division will presumably be decided by how the Saints handle Weeks 15, 16 and 17 -- a home game against the Steelers sandwiched in between two with the Panthers.
Share This Story