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NFL playoffs betting power ratings: What every divisional-round spread should be, plus early playoff picks

Get the edge over the sportsbooks in the playoffs by developing a power rating system to stay ahead of the lines

The wild-card round is in the books, with only one game being decided by fewer than 12 points as home underdogs showed up for bettors (though one technically was not at home) and the Commanders pulled out the one close game on the slate. I happened to hit all six straight-up winners as part of the SportsLine expert predictions post, though I had only one game being decided by more than 10 points.

The market is expecting a similar divisional round, with two favorites of more than a touchdown and another at six points. The one game that's expected to be close is Ravens at Bills. The home team opened at short favorites, but it's the road team that took early money and is now favored. That's not too much of a surprise considering how dominant Baltimore was in the first meeting between these teams, but it would mark only the fourth time since the 1996 season that a team has been home 'dogs in the divisional round. We dig into how teams have fared in that spot going back even further below after breaking down my updated NFL spread power ratings for the playoffs.

What are NFL spread power ratings? You can check out the explainer in how to build and maintain NFL power ratings in our Week 1 version of this column. Or, you can read on to see my ratings for every team and where I think the market is off this week. I went 636-534-34 (+4899) on ATS picks from 2017-23 and even better with my top five picks each week, going 428-327-25 (56.7%) from 2015-23 in the big Las Vegas spread picks contests. My power ratings have been a big part of maintaining that success. 

Which teams are being underrated by the betting market? And which spreads are the furthest off where they should be? ... Join SportsLine right now to see playoff NFL power ratings from the expert who's 636-534-34 on ATS picks from 2017-23, returning $4,899 to $100 players

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R.J. White
R.J. WhiteSuper Stat Geek

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