The Liberty Flames and the New Mexico State Aggies meet in the 2023 Conference USA Championship Game at 7 p.m. ET Friday on CBS Sports Network. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the Flames as 10.5-point favorites, while the over/under is set at 57.5 (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our college football odds page). 

Before making any New Mexico State vs. Liberty picks, you NEED to check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a strong profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It finished the 2023 regular season a profitable 13-9 on top-rated spread picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen HUGE returns!

The model knows New Mexico State is led by a dynamic quarterback in Diego Pavia. He led Conference USA with 3,533 yards of total offense this season, including more than 2,700 passing yards and 23 passing touchdowns. Pavia was also among the top five quarterbacks in FBS with 806 rushing yards. He racked up eight games with at least 60 rushing yards, and Pavia averaged 5.3 yards per carry. He also exploded for six touchdowns in a 2022 meeting against Liberty. 

The model also knows Liberty won the regular season matchup against New Mexico State by 16 points. The Flames accumulated 526 total yards, including 20 plays of at least ten yards, and converted 64% of third down chances in that matchup. Liberty's offense is also elite this season, ranking No. 6 in FBS with 40.1 points per game. The Flames also led the country with 295.4 rushing yards per contest.

Now, it has set its sights on New Mexico State vs. Liberty. We can tell you the model is leaning Over the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any college football picks.

Who wins New Mexico State vs. Liberty? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the New Mexico State vs. Liberty spread you should be all over Friday, all from the model on a roll on college football picks!