The 19th-ranked San Diego State Aztecs (11-1) host the Utah State Aggies (9-3) on Saturday in the Mountain West Championship Game at Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, Calif.   

Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET. The Aztecs are the six-point favorite in the latest Utah State vs. San Diego State college football odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 49.5. (See the latest college football lines for all of this week's games on our college football odds page.)

Before you lock in your San Diego State vs. Utah State picks or college football predictions, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Championship Week 2021 on a 42-28 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen HUGE returns.

The Aztecs are 6-5-1 against the spread, but the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. They have been winning with defense, ranking second against the run (78.7 yards per game) and 11th overall (314.3). The unit allows 17.3 points (ninth), while the offense scores 27.7 (72nd). SDSU has 36 sacks and has 20 takeaways, with Cameron Thomas boasting 10.5 sacks and Jonah Tavai adding 6.5. Safety Patrick McMorris is the leading tackler with 79 and has three interceptions, and Andrew Aleki has returned two for TDs. 

Utah State is 8-4 ATS, and its success depends on its offense. QB Logan Bonner has 3,242 passing yards and 32 TDs, and WR Deven Thompkins has 1,543 yards and nine scores. The wideout averages 17.7 yards per catch, while Derek Wright averages 17.9 and has scored 10 TDs on just 39 receptions. RBs Calvin Tyler and Elelyon Noa have combined for 1,269 rushing yards and nine TDs. The Aggies defense allows 26 points per game but has 19 takeaways, with Shaq Bond and Ajani Carter posting three interceptions apiece. 

The SportsLine model has simulated Saturday's Utah State vs. San Diego State Mountain West Championship matchup 10,000 times, and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under on the total, and it also says one side of the spread is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. You absolutely need to see it before locking in your own picks.

Who wins Utah State vs. San Diego State in the Mountain West Championship Game on Saturday? And which side of the spread is hitting well over 50 percent of the time? ... Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the San Diego State vs. Utah State spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model on a 42-28 run on its top-rated college football side picks!