The Washington Nationals will look to earn a split in their four-game series with the New York Mets when they meet in a National League East Division matchup on Thursday morning. After dropping the first two games of the series in 10 innings, Washington rallied from a four-run deficit on Wednesday to post a 7-5 victory. The Mets (42-42), who are 6-4 in their last 10 games, are 17-22 in day games this season. The Nationals (40-46), who are 3-7 in their last 10, are 21-23 during the day in 2024.

The game is slated to begin at 11:05 a.m. ET from Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. The Mets are -117 favorites (risk $117 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Mets vs. Nationals odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total runs scored is 9. Before you make any Mets vs. Nationals picks or MLB predictions, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It entered Week 15 of the 2024 MLB season a profitable 44-34 on all-top rated MLB picks this season. Dating back to last season, it is on a 22-8 roll on top-rated run-line picks (+935). Anybody following has seen STRONG returns!

The model knows New York shortstop Francisco Lindor has been heating up of late with hits in eight of the past nine games. In Tuesday's 7-2 10-inning win over Washington, he was 2-for-5 with a double, homer, one RBI and two runs scored. He was 1-for-4 with a homer and two RBI in Wednesday's 7-5 loss to the Nationals. In 84 games this season, he is batting .249 with 25 doubles, 15 homers, 43 RBI and 57 runs scored.

The model also knows Washington shortstop C.J. Abrams has four multi-hit games over the past eight, including back-to-back three-hit performances at San Diego June 24 and 25. He was 2-for-5 with an RBI in Tuesday's loss to New York. He also had two hits with a double and home run in an 8-1 win at Tampa Bay on Saturday. In 78 games this season, he is hitting .283 with 20 doubles, five triples, 13 homers, 43 RBI and 53 runs scored.

The model has simulated Mets vs. Nationals 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you the model is leaning Over on the run total, predicting a combined 10.1 runs, and it also says one side of the money line has ALL the value!

Who wins Mets vs. Nationals, and which side of the money line has ALL the value? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the spread you should be all over, all from the model on a 44-34 run on all-top rated MLB picks!