Trailing 3-1 in the series, the Dallas Mavericks visit the Golden State Warriors for Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals at 9 p.m. ET on Thursday. Golden State is favored by 6.5 points at Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is set at 215 (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our NBA odds page). 

Before making any Mavericks vs. Warriors picks, you NEED to check out the NBA predictions from SportsLine expert Matt Severance.

A well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005, Severance is on a stunning run: He is a blistering 89-36 his last 125 NBA money line picks, returning over $2,900 to $100 bettors during that span. Anyone who has followed him is WAY UP.

Severance knows the Mavericks found their footing in Game 4. Dallas connected on 20 three-pointers on Tuesday, making 47 percent of long-range attempts. The Mavericks also produced 30 assists with only eight turnovers, and Dallas can lean on its centerpiece in Luka Doncic. Doncic is the leading scorer in the 2022 NBA Playoffs, averaging 31.9 points per game, and he is putting up 33.0 points per game in the series against Golden State.

He is also keenly aware that the Warriors are cooking on offense. Golden State is scoring more than 1.18 points per possession in the series and more than 1.15 points per possession in the playoffs. The Warriors are averaging more than twice as many assists as turnovers in the series, and Golden State is shooting 38.5 percent from three-point distance. The Warriors are also keeping the pressure on the rim, leading to 52 percent shooting from the field, and Stephen Curry is burying more than 47 percent of his three-point attempts against Dallas.

Now, Severance has set his sights on Mavericks vs. Warriors. We can tell you he is leaning under the total, and he's found a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side! You ABSOLUTELY need to see what he has to say before locking in any NBA picks.

Who wins Mavericks vs. Warriors? And what critical x-factor makes one side a must-back? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Mavericks vs. Warriors spread you should be all over Thursday, all from the expert on a roll on NBA picks!