The Dallas Mavericks and the Utah Jazz square off in Game 3 of a first round series at 9 p.m. ET on Thursday. Utah is favored by seven points at Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is set at 210.5 (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our NBA odds page). Luka Doncic (calf) is questionable for Dallas.

Before making any Mavericks vs. Jazz picks, you NEED to check out the NBA predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the first full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-56 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,400. Anyone following it has seen HUGE returns!

The model knows the Jazz have the more explosive offense. Utah led the NBA in offensive rating during the regular season, putting up 1.16 points per possession. Utah also landed in the top four of the league in 2-point accuracy (56.8 percent), with 14.5 3-pointers and 23.4 free throw attempts per game. The Jazz have dominated the rebounding battle in the first two games, and Utah was also elite in the regular season on the offensive glass, including 14.9 second-chance points per game.

The model also knows the Mavericks can rely on their defense. In addition to heroics from Jalen Brunson and Maxi Kleber in Game 2, Dallas has held Utah below its season average in offensive efficiency through two games. Dallas also ranked No. 7 in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season, yielding only 1.09 points per possession. No team gives up fewer 3-pointers per game (10.9) than the Mavericks, and Dallas is a top-10 team in free throw prevention and assist prevention.

Now, it has set its sights on Mavericks vs. Jazz. We can tell you the model is leaning over the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any NBA picks.

Who wins Mavericks vs. Jazz? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Mavericks vs. Jazz spread you should be all over Thursday, all from the model on a roll on NBA picks!