The No. 4 seed Los Angeles Clippers are hosting the No. 5 seed Dallas Mavericks in a first-round Western Conference matchup on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the Mavericks as 3-point favorites, while the over/under is 222 points (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our NBA odds page). 

Before you make any Mavericks vs. Clippers picks, you NEED to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 88-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,600. Anyone following it has seen HUGE returns!

The model knows point guard Luka Doncic, who missed the final two games of the regular season with an ankle injury, is expected back for Game 1. The fifth-year veteran played in 70 games, all starts, and averaged 33.9 points, 9.2 rebounds, 9.8 assists and 1.4 steals in 37.5 minutes. Doncic set career and franchise records for single-game scoring when he poured in 73 points at Atlanta on Jan. 26. He also became the sixth player in NBA history to record 20 triple-doubles in a season.

The model also knows that although the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard is listed as a game-time decision, he is Los Angeles' leading scorer and has played in and started 68 games this season. In three games against the Mavericks, Leonard averaged 21.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.1 assists and one block in 32 minutes. He scored 20 or more points in nine of his final 10 games, including a 29-point effort in a 100-97 win at Orlando on March 29. For the season, he is averaging 23.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.6 steals in 34.3 minutes.

The model has simulated Mavericks vs. Clippers 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations!

Who wins Mavericks vs. Clippers, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the spread you should be all over, all from the model on an 88-58 roll on top-rated NBA picks!