Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff trade: Projection model says blockbuster Rams-Lions swap has little impact

Two quarterbacks who have combined for almost 400 career passing touchdowns and over 63,000 passing yards swapped homes on Saturday night, as Matthew Stafford was traded from the Detroit Lions to the Los Angeles Rams in exchange for two first-round draft picks, a third-rounder, and quarterback Jared Goff, who is just two years removed from a Super Bowl appearance. Stafford joins wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods in the City of Angels, while Goff will team up with electric running back D'Andre Swift in the Motor City.

SportsLine's advanced computer model has already simulated the entire 2021 season 10,000 times and says the Rams improve by only a half-win with Stafford, moving to 8.3 victories from 7.9. L.A.'s chances of winning the division climb by 6.1 percent to 36.7, while their chances of a playoff appearance rise to 67 percent from 58.8. 

The Rams' Super Bowl chances increase from 1.3 percent to 3.8 as a result of the trade. 

The Lions' projected season-long win total falls with Goff at the helm instead of Stafford, dropping from 5.2 victories to 4.9. The Lions' chances of winning the NFC North fall from 2.5 percent to 1.8, while their chances of making the playoff bracket next season drop from 6.3 percent to 4.5.

The Lions had a zero percent chance of winning the 2022 Super Bowl with Stafford, and those odds are unchanged with Goff. 

Goff had just 20 touchdowns this season and failed to top 4,000 yards passing. Now, Rams head coach Sean McVay will inherit Stafford, who tossed 26 touchdowns and barely passed 4,000 yards. The Rams went 10-6 this season and finished second in the NFC West standings behind the Seattle Seahawks. L.A. will go seven straight seasons without making a first-round draft pick, provided they don't engineer a trade back into the first round.

The Lions were the bottom-feeders of the NFC North at 5-11. Detroit hasn't finished above .500 since the 2017 season and were dead-last in the division the last three years.

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