Lamar Jackson Fantasy football ranking: 2020 outlook, projections, ADP, value, predictions, stats

Patrick Mahomes set the record for the most Fantasy points ever scored in a season by a QB in 2018, which Lamar Jackson promptly broke in his first full season as a starter. Where should he be in your 2020 Fantasy football rankings, and what Lamar Jackson Fantasy football outlook can you expect?

In addition to beefing up their defense this offseason, the Ravens added talented rookie running back J.K. Dobbins and slot receiver Devin Duvernay in the second and third rounds of the 2020 NFL Draft. Dobbins is an explosive back out of Ohio State who complements Mark Ingram well and should immediately add to Baltimore's already high-powered offense. With those two added to a Ravens offense that returns nearly all its core pieces from 2019, could we see Jackson post another historic Fantasy season in 2020?

The 2020 Lamar Jackson Fantasy football value remains strong, as he's set for another 150-carry campaign. He's an early-round candidate in most formats, but how high should he be in your 2020 Fantasy football rankings? Here's what you need to know:

So which players are poised for breakouts, which sleepers do you need to jump on, and which busts should you avoid at all costs in your Fantasy football league? Join SportsLine now to get early 2020 Fantasy football rankings, plus see which WR is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.

Lamar Jackson Fantasy ADP & ranking (via SportsLine's projection model)

No. 13.3 ADP
No. 1 QB

Lamar Jackson Fantasy projections (via SportsLine's projection model) 

3,396 passing yards, 33.8 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 150 rushing attempts, 984 rushing yards, 4.5 rushing touchdowns
439.3 Fantasy points

Lamar Jackson 2020 Fantasy outlook 

What Jackson did as a rusher in 2019 is tough to project as a median outcome on a year-to-year basis, simply because we've never seen anyone ever do it before. Cam Newton's career-high for rushing yards in a season was 754. Jackson almost doubled that in his first season. So far, Jackson has been the best rushing quarterback in NFL history by a wide margin. But, barring injury, it's hard to find any reason that he won't be able to continue to pile up the yardage with his legs.

What about the passing, though? Jackson threw for 36 touchdowns on just 401 passing attempts in 2019, giving him a touchdown rate of nine percent. Only one other time in the history of the NFL has a quarterback reached the nine percent mark (Peyton Manning in 2004) for reference as to how out of the ordinary Jackson's 2019 was.

Only 13 quarterbacks in NFL history have posted a touchdown rate above eight percent. On average, that group's touchdown rate dropped by three percent the following year. The most recent example is Patrick Mahomes, whose touchdown rate fell from 8.6 percent in 2018 to 5.4 percent last year. Mahomes was still excellent in 2019, but as we saw, putting together a historical season like his 2018 or Jackson's 2019 takes more than just excellent play -- it requires several factors working in the QB's favor simultaneously to culminate into a historical statistical output. There's a good chance that the numbers we saw from Jackson as a passer in 2019 are the best we will ever see him produce in his career.

Does that mean Jackson is a bad pick in Fantasy in 2020? While I prefer not to buy high on players, Jackson's rushing output isn't likely to be diminished much in 2020. And while his passing touchdowns will almost certainly regress, that could actually result in a few more rushing touchdowns. After rushing 38 times in the red zone as a rookie in 2018, Jackson carried the ball 28 times from inside the opponent's 20-yard line last year. For reference, check out Jackson's red zone rushing profile over the past two seasons compared to Cam Newton's prime (any season with over 25 red zone rushing attempts).

Jackson in 2019 -- 28 red zone attempts and 5 attempts from inside the five. 7 rushing touchdowns. 
Jackson in 2018 -- 38 red zone attempts and 6 attempts from inside the five. 5 rushing touchdowns.
Newton in 2017 -- 27 red zone attempts and 5 attempts from inside the five. 6 rushing touchdowns.
Newton in 2015 -- 30 red zone attempts and 12 attempts from inside the five. 10 rushing touchdowns.
Newton in 2012 -- 30 red zone attempts and 15 attempts from inside the five. 8 rushing touchdowns.
Newton in 2011 -- 36 red zone attempts and 13 attempts from inside the five. 14 rushing touchdowns.

In the years he saw 25-plus red zone rushing attempts, Newton scored a touchdown on 30.8 percent of said attempts. Meanwhile, Jackson has scored on just 18.2 percent of his red zone rushing attempts thus far in his career. To be fair, Newton saw more carries from within the five-yard line than Jackson has thus far, but it still remains surprising that Jackson doesn't have more rushing touchdowns to show for his red zone involvement. If his passing touchdown rate dropping simply means that his ratio of rushing-to-passing touchdowns evens out, Jackson will again be the most explosive Fantasy point scoring quarterback in the NFL.

What does this all mean regarding where Jackson should be selected in 2020 Fantasy drafts? I have him ranked as the QB1 ahead of Mahomes and would be fine selecting him anywhere after the first 20 picks. At his current ADP, I'm not going to be getting Jackson with that valuation. In casual leagues, someone will select Jackson with a top-12 pick. But, in more savvy leagues where the quarterback position is properly devalued due to the abundance of viable options, there might not be a QB selected in the first two rounds. I almost exclusively recommend using the late-round QB strategy when drafting in single-QB formats, but if you find that your league-mates are playing a game of chicken when being the one to start the QB run, don't hesitate to select Jackson with a late second or early third-round pick.