Two AFC teams fighting to get in the NFL playoff picture will collide when the New York Jets host the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Week 16 Thursday Night Football game at MetLife Stadium. The Jets (7-7) are one game behind Miami (8-6) for the third and final wild card spot in the conference. The Jaguars (6-8) sit in second place in the AFC South, only one game behind Tennessee for the division lead. Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists New York as a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Jets vs. Jaguars odds, while the over/under is 37.

Before you make any Jaguars vs. Jets picks or Week 16 NFL predictions, you need to see the NFL best bets and analysis from SportsLine expert Mike Tierney.

A veteran sportswriter whose work appears periodically in The New York Times and Los Angeles Times, Mike Tierney has covered the NFL for decades and reported from seven Super Bowls. He entered the 2022 NFL season 232-204-10 against-the-spread since the start of the 2018 season.

In addition, he is an AMAZING 31-14 on his last 45 picks in games involving the Jaguars, returning $1,593. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Tierney knows that New York has one of the best defenses in the league. The Jets rank third in total defense (305.4 yards allowed per game) and yards per play allowed (4.82) and fourth in scoring defense (18.8 points per game). The team has allowed 30 points in only one game this season, Week 2 against the Browns.

Tierney also has factored in that Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is playing the best football of his young career. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Lawrence has thrown 14 touchdown passes versus just one interception since Week 9. (He threw 10 touchdowns and six interceptions over the first eight weeks of the season.) Jacksonville is 4-2 over the last six weeks.

Now, Tierney has locked in another confident against-the-spread pick for Jets vs. Jaguars on Thursday Night Football. We can tell you he's leaning Over the total, but he knows a crucial X-factor makes one side of the spread a MUST-BACK! You ABSOLUTELY need to see what it is before locking in any picks of your own.

Who will win Jets vs. Jaguars on Thursday Night Football? And what crucial X-factor makes one side of the spread hit HARD?... Join SportsLine now to find out, all from the expert on an AMAZING 31-14 run on picks involving the Jaguars!