The 2023 NFL season has been pretty UNDERwhelming, hasn't it?

Ha. Most pathetic dad joke ever.

But the reality is, the campaign has been overwhelming from a betting standpoint had you been on this fad every week. The Year of the Under continues. It lives on. We are still seeing Unders hit at a historic rate -- over 56% -- and we haven't even had bad weather games yet. The numbers have been creeping down, yet still the Unders prevail. Unders are on pace to cash at the second-highest level ever since the merger.

So much for the modern passing game. And yes, it will be a common these in this week's best bets.

• More Week 13 picks: Model | Hartstein | Pick 'em | Survivor | DFS

Broncos at Ravens Under 39.5

The Ravens and Jaguars somehow combined to score like 20 points in the final six minutes of regulation to go over last week. That won't happen again and Russell Wilson sure isn't Trevor Lawrence. The Ravens' passing game is pathetic and Denver's is the worst in the NFL. These are the two worst red zone offenses in the NFL since Week 4 (Denver has been the worst all season). Unders are 17-5 between them and the Broncos only score 14 a game. Lamar Jackson has thrown seven touchdowns in his past eight games and the Broncos have a top-five pass defense. Denver plays Cover-3 and Jackson is one of three starters without a TD against Cover-3 all season. Oh yeah, and the Ravens don't have anyone in the passing game to worry about except Mark Andrews, and he's not 100%.

Ravens Team Total Under 24.5

I don't see it against one of the stingiest defenses in the NFL. Baltimore's passing game is broken. The running backs are averaging just 3.7 yards per carry over the last three weeks. Lamar Jackson is frustrated and offensive coordinator Greg Roman is entertaining overtures from Stanford. The Broncos allow a passer rating of 79.4. Broncos games average 31.9 points per game, total. The Ravens will be super methodical and struggle to get plays started on time. Jackson will run a lot.

Browns -7 at Texans

This has little to do with Deshaun Watson and everything to do with how atrocious the Texans are at pretty much everything. Since their lone win they are 29th in opposing passer rating, while posting the second-worst passer rating in the NFL. But the Browns can't stop the run, you tell me. The Texans can't do that anymore either, with 3.88 yards per carry allowed since they last won a game in Week 5. The Texans haven't lost by less than eight points since Week 5 and have trailed by at least 10 points in their six straight defeats. The Browns will run and throw the ball at will. Kyle Allen is not an NFL QB. The Texans are still full-blown tanking.

Giants Team Total Under 19.5 Points 

Saquan Barkley is running out of steam and the Giants offense is withering week by week. Barkley went from averaging an NFL-best 128.5 scrimmage yards per game and a whopping 5.5 yards-per touch in the first six week to 88.8 per game (26th) and 3.7 per touch. No one else has emerged. Daniel Jones is slipping into some old bad habits. The Commanders defense is legit, allowing just 15.4 points during its 6-1 tear. They will turn the Giants over. Unders are 15-4 for these two games if you want to play this total for the game, but I think Washington's elite pressure rate, turnover-prone defense and third-down/redzone prowess will keep New York below 20 points.

Jets at Vikings Under 44.5

Sauce Gardner vs. Justin Jefferson. I say the rookie keeps him from going off. T.J. Hockenson has been emerging for the Vikings, but the Jets suffocate tight ends (zero TDs allowed all season, to four picks on TE targets for a rating of 69.8). I see a lot of Dalvin Cook and rushes in general in this game. Here's the Jets' points allowed since giving up 27 to the Bengals in Week 3: 20, 17, 10, 9, 22, 17, 10, 10. Kirk Cousins will throw a pick or two. Mike White doesn't get to face that Bears defense again this week. He'll have a very different task here. He will struggle on the road in a raucous atmosphere.

Jaguars at Lions Over 51.5

You can take the Jaguars Over 26.5 here if you like, too. Trevor Lawrence is coming into his own and brimming with confidence. He has shaken his fourth-quarter issues and is the NFL's second-ranking QB the last three weeks. Doug Pederson's scheme allows for any given player to be the go-to guy, and they did their damage last week without Travis Etienne, all the more impressive. The Lions give up nearly 30 points per game. Detroit's run game will provide issues for the Jaguars defense. The Over is 13-9 with these teams this season. They'll be playing in perfect conditions in a dome. The Lions are well-rested, having last played on Thanksgiving. This is an outlier in an Under league.

Jets at Vikings Same-Game Parlay (+850)

• T.J. Hockenson Under 47.5 Receiving Yards
• Kirk Cousins INT
• Garrett Wilson TD

Player Props of the Week

Garrett Wilson Anytime TD (+150)

White loves throwing to Wilson, even if he isn't all that open. The kid is a stud and has major big-pay ability. He will present issues for a middling Vikings defense.

Zay Jones Anytime TD (+150)

I love how Pederson is moving Jones all over and allowing him to feast on different matchups. Lawrence has huge confidence in him and I expect there to be plenty of volume in the Jags passing game Sunday.

Saquon Barkley Under 70.5 Rushing Yards (-125)

I detailed Barkley's struggles above. The Giants are getting a little one-handed and predictable. The Commanders are very good against the run.

Marcus Mariota INT (+129)

Somehow Mariota is still starting over Desmond Ridder. With a bye looming, that might be changing. I don't see it bringing out the best in Mariota. Too many bad decisions. Too many jump balls. The Steelers are getting turnovers lately and Mariota will be under duress from TJ Watt.

Ryan Tannehill Over 18.5 Completions (-119)

Derrick Henry is averaging 2.8 yards per carry over the last three weeks. I know the Eagles have issues stopping the run, but I think they sell to out to take him away and Tannehill has to keep pace through the air.

Kenny Pickett Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-111)

I've been riding this lately. They need Pickett's legs to activate even more than they have. There should be plenty of holes in that Atlanta defense to run through. Pickett went easily Over his total last week, which was higher than this. I could see him going Over last week's total and pushing into the 40s.

Lamar Jackson Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-117)

Jackson is the entire Baltimore offense right now, specifically via his legs. Denver will put him under pressure. Jackson ran a season-high 14 times last week and every year his rushing attempts have soared in the final third of the season.

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