Jaguars overhaul receiving corps: Using advanced analytics to determine Fantasy impact for Trevor Lawrence and Co.
The 2021 season could not have gone much worse for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
First-round pick Travis Etienne was lost for the season with a Lisfranic injury to his foot before the regular season even arrived. It only got worse from there. The Urban Meyer experience was a complete debacle from start to midseason finish. First overall selection Trevor Lawrence finished second-to-last in passer rating. Promising second-year receiver Laviska Shenault was nowhere to be seen -- finishing with just 619 scoreless receiving yards -- while promising third-year receiver D.J. Chark was lost for the year just four games into the season.
Somehow, Jacksonville has managed to follow up their unseemly regular season with an offseason just as puzzling. The 25-year-old Chark's free agency value proved to be $10 million per year, which is nearly identical to the $8 million that Jacksonville decided to pay 27-year-old Zay Jones annually. Jones has topped 400 receiving yards in just two of his five pro seasons, with a career-best of 652. Chark topped 1,000 yards as a 22-year-old.
Guess who has never topped 1,000 yards during his four-year career? That's right, the fourth-highest paid receiver in the National Football League -- Jacksonville's $84 million man -- Christian Kirk. Kirk's presumed position is the slot, meaning Jacksonville's 2020 second-round pick Shenault will either play out of position on the perimeter or not even be included in three-receiver sets.
The Jags weren't finished minimizing their assets, though -- they also handed out $9 million to tight end Evan Engram, who earned that contract by coming oh so close to averaging over 30 receiving yards per game in 2021. Engram will compete for playing time with Dan Arnold, who already was on Jacksonville's roster and whose 12.8 yards per reception clearly outclasses Engrams' 9.7-yard mark over the past two seasons.
The Jags appear set to enter 2022 with some combination of Kirk, a 32-year-old Marvin Jones who ranked dead last in the NFL In yards after the catch per reception, Zay Jones, Shenault, Engram, and Arnold operating as the primary pass-catchers for Lawrence. I suppose that is an upgrade over what Lawrence had to work with as a rookie; I expected to feel more confident in Lawrence's supporting cast after the Jags invested over $100 million into it, though.
The real question isn't whether Jacksonville made good use of their money, though. We are here to sort out the implications of their impetuous investments -- what does all of this mean for Fantasy?
I took a deeper look at Lawrence's college and rookie season data to get a better idea of what type of fit we should expect from the Year 2 QB and his new pass-catchers. Lawrence was one of just eight quarterbacks who attempted over 600 passes in 2021, and this offense is likely to present high target volume again in 2022. Which players should we expect to take the bulk of that volume? And what does the route tree data indicate about the potential fit of Jacksonville's free agency acquisitions in a Lawrence-led offense?
Does Laviska Shenault have any Dynasty value after Jacksonville's offseason additions? And how will new WR1 Christian Kirk's route tree fit with Lawrence's preferences? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Jacob Gibbs' advanced analytical breakdown of the Jaguars signings and more, all from an analytics-driven expert who has crushed it in rankings accuracy long-term!
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