The Atlanta Hawks host the Miami Heat for Game 4 of a first round series at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday. Miami is favored by 1.5-points at Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is set at 221 (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our NBA odds page). Before making any Heat vs. Hawks picks, you NEED to check out the NBA predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the first full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-56 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,400. Anyone following it has seen HUGE returns!

The model knows the Heat are incredibly potent on defense. Miami ranked in the top five of the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season, and they have allowed only 1.06 points per possession in the series. The Heat are grabbing 78.8 percent of available defensive rebounds and forcing a turnover on 16.6 percent of defensive possessions. Miami is also playing well on offense, including a 70.5 percent assist rate and a 60.2 percent true shooting mark.

The model also knows the Hawks are tremendous on offense. Atlanta scored 1.19 points per possession in Game 3, finding its stride during a 16-point second half comeback. The Hawks had more than twice as many assists as turnovers in that game, and Atlanta was No. 2 in the NBA in offensive efficiency this season. The Hawks have top-tier shooters and, with the league's best turnover avoidance, Atlanta can maximize possessions.

Now, it has set its sights on Heat vs. Hawks. We can tell you the model is leaning over the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any NBA picks.

Who wins Heat vs. Hawks? And which side of the spread hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Heat vs. Hawks spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model on a roll on NBA picks!