First place in the tightly packed Eastern Conference will be on the line when the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics collide in a key conference matchup on Wednesday at TD Garden in Boston. The Heat (48-28) sit atop the East standings, a half game ahead of the Bucks (47-28). The Celtics (47-29) are in third place, only one game behind Miami but just a half game ahead of the fourth place 76ers (46-29). Tip-off is 7:30 p.m. ET. Boston is listed as a five-point favorite in the latest Celtics vs. Heat odds from Caesars Sportsbook while the Over/Under for total points scored is 213.5. 

Before making any Heat vs. Celtics picks or NBA predictions, be sure to check out what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say. (Check out the odds of every game on SportsLine's NBA odds page.)

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 24 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 83-51 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning more than $2,600. Anyone following it has seen HUGE returns.

The model knows that Boston is arguably the best defensive team in the league. The Celtics allow just 105.9 points per 100 possessions, which leads the NBA. Since Jan. 29, Boston has given up a league-best 104.9 points per 100 possessions, almost four points better than the next best team, Memphis (108.6).

The model also knows that Bam Adebayo is having an NBA Defensive Player of the Year-caliber season. The multi-dimensional defender leads all centers in steals per game (1.47). He also is holding guards to just 38.4 percent shooting from the field, including 34.6 percent from the 3-point line, and he anchors a defense that is giving up just 105.2 points per game, the fourth-lowest in the NBA.

Now, the model has simulated Celtics vs. Heat 10,000 times, and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over the total, predicting a combined 219 points, and it also says one side of the spread covers almost 60 percent of the time. You absolutely need to see it before locking in your own picks.

Who wins Celtics vs. Heat? And which side of the spread covers in almost 60 percent of simulations? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the Heat vs. Celtics spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its NBA picks.