Fantasy Winners and Losers of NFL Free Agency

The 2020 NFL offseason has been one of the most eventful in quite some time. After 20 years, Tom Brady's reign in New England has come to an end. And somehow, that isn't the most shocking news of the offseason. DeAndre Hopkins was traded for a bag of peanuts, and he'll join Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk in Arizona to form one of the strongest receiving corps in the NFL.

We've seen Fantasy studs like Stefon Diggs, David Johnson, Austin Hooper, and Philip Rivers switch teams, and we could soon add Melvin Gordon, Emmanuel Sanders, and Jameis Winston to that list.

These moves don't just directly affect the players involved, though. There's a trickle down effect with any player movement, and as the dust settles on the 2020 free agency period, we have a more clear view of which players' Fantasy value has changed the most.

Fantasy Winners

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals

I made the case for Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen as massive values last year, based purely on their rushing upside. My favorite stat to reference when making that case was this: "Since 2000, 25 QBs have rushed at least six times per game over a 14-plus game season. The average fantasy finish was QB7. 80 percent finished as a top-10 QB and 52 percent finished top-five."

Murray ended up averaging 5.8 rushing attempts per game and finishing as the QB7 in Fantasy as a rookie. Jackson and Allen went on to finish as QB1 and QB6, respectively.

Even before this trade, when looking forward to 2020, Murray was someone I planned on targeting aggressively in Fantasy drafts. He upped his rushing volume slightly as the season went on, and his 3.69 percent touchdown rate seemed due for some positive regression. Now, with DeAndre Hopkins added to his already deep and diverse arsenal of weaponry, it is hard to imagine Murray not finishing as a top-five Fantasy QB in year two.

Even in a "down year," Hopkins finished 14th among qualified receivers in yards per route run. He ranked fifth and fourth in the two years prior, and he has reached the two yards per route run mark in each of the past three seasons. For reference, Arizona hasn't had a receiver reach that level of efficiency since Larry Fitzgerald did it in 2015. Expect Arizona to again lead the NFL in four-wide sets and finish near the top of the league in pace of play and pass-to-rush ratio with Hopkins added to the mix of Fitzgerald, third-year standout Christian Kirk, and the trio of 2019 draft investments -- Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler, and KeeSean Johnson. Murray has already shown the ability to finish as a top-10 Fantasy QB. With DeAndre Hopkins now added to the mix, it would be a shock to see him finish lower than his QB7 finish as a rookie. All it takes is better luck in the touchdown department, more aggressiveness as a rusher, or a simple step forward in efficiency in his second year, and we're looking at a top-three Fantasy QB with QB1 upside.

Hayden Hurst, TE, Atlanta Falcons

People seem to be dismissive of Hayden Hurst after he didn't produce much in his first two pro seasons, but he is a legit pass-catching prospect. Producing at the NFL level is difficult for any young tight end, and Hurst's situation was especially difficult as part of a crowded tight end depth chart in Baltimore.

The Ravens invested a 2018 first-round pick in him, and the Falcons weren't deterred by his "slow" NFL start, sending a second-round pick to the Ravens for him, so there is still reason to believe in Hurst's potential.

Freed from the shadow of Mark Andrews, Hurst could immediately step into the Austin Hooper role in Atlanta's pass-happy offense. No team passed at a higher rate than Atlanta last year, and only four tight ends saw more targets per game than Hooper. Hooper also ranked sixth in red zone targets and third in end zone targets, a role that the 6'5" and 260 pound Hurst could fit nicely. 

Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Brady could not have picked a better spot to rejuvenate his Fantasy value than Tampa Bay. The Bucs have finished first in pass attempts and air yards in each of the past two seasons, while also finishing top-seven in pass-to-rush ratio.

Now, Brady is a different type of passer than Jameis Winston or Ryan Fitzpatrick. His skill set in his age-43 season doesn't seem like a natural fit in Bruce Arians' vertical downfield approach, and it is likely that Tampa Bay will conform their offense to best fit their $30M investment. I wouldn't expect the Bucs to lead the NFL in air yards in 2020.

Still, there's no way to classify this as anything other than a massive boost for Brady's Fantasy value. He's finished as the QB12 and QB13 in the past two seasons, but that has come with a diminished supporting cast. We saw Brady finish as the QB4 in his age-40 season, and a return to the top-10 is well within reach with his talented new group of pass-catchers.

Kenyan Drake, RB, Arizona Cardinals

After being acquired from the Dolphins in Week 9, Drake almost immediately assumed a workhorse role for the Cardinals. Despite David Johnson and Chase Edmonds being relatively healthy during that time, Drake's snap rate never dropped below 64 percent in any individual game. He was Fantasy's RB3 from Week 9 on, and his 19.9 PPR points per game during that time would have trailed only Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook over the course of the full season.

With Johnson traded away, it's possible that Drake will assume workhorse responsibilities for the Cardinals again in 2020. Whether Arizona addresses the RB position over the course of the offseason will be illuminating in just how much trust they have in Drake, but he projects for a massive workload at the moment.

Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Injuries derailed Thielen's 2019, but he could bounce back to elite Fantasy WR status with Diggs out of the equation. Thielen was Fantasy's WR5 in PPR formats in 2018, even with Diggs receiving a whopping 149 targets.

It remains to be seen what Minnesota will do to address the receiver position, but Thielen has a chance to be near the league-lead in target market share. His ceiling is capped by what may be the lowest amount of total team targets in the league, but Thielen should again be a PPR monster with Diggs out of the equation.

Other Fantasy Winners: Josh Allen, Tyrod Taylor, Gardner Minshew, Allen Robinson, David Johnson, Jordan Howard, Teddy Bridgewater, Will Fuller, Randall Cobb, Blake Jarwin

Fantasy Losers

Austin Hooper and David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns

Hooper's move to Cleveland can't be classified as anything other than a massive blow to his Fantasy value, and part of the reason is the presence of 2017 first-round selection David Njoku.

The driving force behind Hooper's strong 2019 Fantasy season was high volume while playing in Atlanta's offense. The Falcons ranked first in the NFL in pass-to-rush ratio, and Hooper's 7.2 targets per game ranked fifth among tight ends. He'll now move to a Cleveland team that ranked just 18th in pass-to-rush ratio and 29th in total targets thrown to the tight end position.

As if the role change wasn't enough, Hooper goes from a quarterback and offensive system that he has several years of familiarity with to a Browns offense that ranged from inconsistent to downright dysfunctional last year. He goes from Matt Ryan to Baker Mayfield.

Among 27 tight ends who saw at least 50 targets last year, Hooper ranked second with an 82.8 percent catchable target rate. Only 69.1 percent of Baker Mayfield's throws to the tight end position were deemed catchable in 2019.

Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals

Both Kirk and Fitzgerald seemed poised for some positive regression in 2020 if looking at their targets and air yards from 2019. As alluded to earlier, Kyler Murray's touchdown rate was surprisingly low in 2019, as the offense underperformed as a whole. With Hopkins now added to the mix, expect better overall production from Arizona's offense, but a sharp decrease in volume for Kirk and Fitzgerald.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Winston ranked fourth in deep ball rate last year, throwing it 20-plus yards in the air on 15.8 percent of his attempts. Here's the deep ball breakdown for his top two receivers:

Evans -- 407 deep yards (8th in the NFL) and 21.9 percent deep ball rate (percent of targets that were deep targets)
Godwin -- 298 deep yards (22nd) and just a 14.9 percent deep ball rate

Evans benefits more from the Arians-Winston combination than Godwin, and the transition to Brady's playstyle could be a bit of an issue, as evidenced by the numbers below:

2019:
Brady -- 10.1 percent deep ball rate (21st), 41.9 percent deep adjusted completion rate (11th)
Winston -- 15.8 percent deep ball rate (4th), 44.4 percent deep adjusted completion rate (8th)

In addition to seeing fewer downfield targets, Evans is likely to see fewer targets in general with Brady at the helm. Evans has benefited from a Bucs offense that has led the NFL in pass attempts in back-to-back seasons, and that could drastically change in 2020. The primary reason Tampa has been so pass heavy was the constant negative game scripts they found themselves in as a result of Winston's erratic play. They were leading for just 36.9 percent of their offensive plays in 2019 and just 31.7 percent in 2018. That should change with an improved defense and Brady under center. If the Bucs add a running back they feel confident in, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Tampa fall from first to middle of the pack in terms of passing volume.

There's a possibility that not only will the overall target total in Tampa fall with Brady at the helm, but that the percentage of said targets that go to wide receivers could also fall. In 2019, 62.6 percent of Jameis Winston's pass attempts were directed at wide receivers. Over the past five seasons, Brady's receivers have accounted for a 55 percent target market share. Godwin and Evans were responsible for a combined 45 percent of Tampa Bay's targets in the games they played in. The highest combined target share for two of Brady's receivers over the past five years was 39.7 percent in 2016.

Evans' 2019 Fantasy value was kept afloat by massive spike weeks in which Winston locked onto him and aggressively and repeatedly attacked downfield -- often while trying to erase a large deficit on the scoreboard. Brady spreads the ball around more, which could result in fewer ceiling games for Evans. That, plus the overall downtick in passing volume in Tampa Bay could move Evans out of top-10 or even top-15 Fantasy WR consideration.

Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans

Watson is pretty clearly the biggest Fantasy loser of Monday's blockbuster trade. Watson's QB rating of 98 rose to 105 when targeting Hopkins last season, and he had a 115.9 QB rating when targeting Nuk in 2018. The Texans now have improvements to make to their offensive line and receiving corps before I'd be comfortable trusting Watson as a top-five Fantasy QB.

John Brown, WR, Buffalo Bills

John Brown and Cole Beasley both will suffer from Diggs' addition. Allen has barely been capable of supporting two viable Fantasy receivers, let alone three.

Diggs played several different roles in his time in Minnesota. He's generally regarded as one of the best route runners in the NFL, and his versatility resulted in him being used in several different ways. From 2016 to 2019, his snap rate from the slot dropped steadily -- finishing at 57, 27, 26, and 16 percent, respectively. His average depth of target has been all over the place during that time, going from just 8.5 yards when he was featured as a slot weapon in 2016 to 11.5 in 2017, 8.6 in 2018, and then all the way up to 15.1 in 2019.

It seems that his career trajectory is generally headed towards him continuing to be used primarily as a downfield weapon on the perimeter. Assuming that is how Buffalo chooses to use Diggs, John Brown is likely to be the most negatively impacted. Brown's aDOT was 14.7 last year, and it hasn't been any lower than 14 in any of his pro seasons. He had sneaky week-to-week upside as Josh Allen's primary downfield target, but that role could be diminished with Diggs in Buffalo.

Other Fantasy Losers: Stefon Diggs, Kirk Cousins, Curtis Samuel, Keenan Allen, Raheem Mostert, Jameis Winston, Darren Waller, Jacoby Brissett, Cole Beasley, Devonta Freeman