Fantasy Football: What we learned from Week 4, including Darrell Henderson stepping right back into a volume role
Early each week, SportsLine's Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs will provide a data-driven deep-dive into the usage for every team's running backs and pass-catchers. You can find full team-by-team data on snap counts, target share, routes run, red-zone usage and more for every Fantasy relevant running back, wide receiver and tight end.
Below, Gibbs covers the 10 most important storylines from Week 4 to help provide a better understanding of what we learned and how it will impact the Fantasy outlook of specific teams and players.
If you have questions about any stats, players, or situations covered or not covered in this article, feel free to reach out to Gibbs on Twitter.
Important Week 4 metrics
Encouraging Week 4 snap rates:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 4, 2021
95% — James Robinson
93% — Noah Fant, Ricky Seals-Jones, Kenny Golladay
90% — Darrell Henderson
82% — Leonard Fournette
78% — Kadarius Toney
73% — D’Andre Swift
72% — Amon-Ra St. Brown
71% — Terrace Marshall
51% — Javonte Williams, Michael Carter
With Carlos Hyde sidelined, Robinson played nearly every snap for the Jaguars on Thursday.
Kenny Golladay was a bit banged-up heading into Week 3, and his snap rate was below 70 percent as a result. He logged a season-high snap rate in Week 4.
In his first game back from injury, Darrell Henderson immediately returned to a dominant snap share.
D'Andre Swift's snap rate had fallen from 68 percent in Week 1 to 63 percent in Week 2 and 56 percent in Week 3. So, it was good to see him put in a season-high snap rate in Week 4, even if the production wasn't there.
Rookies Kadarius Toney, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Terrace Marshall, Javonte Williams, and Michael Carter all logged a career-high snap rate in Week 4.
Discouraging Week 4 snap rates:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 4, 2021
67% — Brandon Aiyuk
52% — Mecole Hardman
47% — Chuba Hubbard
46% — Jonnu Smith
45% — Chris Carson
30% — Cordarelle Patterson
30% — Tony Pollard
23% — Myles Gaskin
17% — Ronald Jones
After exciting Week 3 usage, Brandon Aiyuk, Mecole Hardman, and Chuba Hubbard each took a step backward in Week 4.
Chris Carson has shown troubling usage signs in back-to-back weeks. I expect that he will have fallen outside of the top 15 at the RB position in my rest of season rankings, which will be published on Wednesday.
Cordarelle Patterson and Tony Pollard have gotten by on elite efficiency thus far, but it hasn't led to any additional opportunities. In fact, both players logged a season-low snap rate in Week 4.
Week 4 RB snap rate leaders:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 4, 2021
95% — James Robinson
89% — Darrell Henderson
88% — Saquon, Alvin Kamara
82% — Lenny Fournette
79% — Najee Harris
73% — Zeke Elliott, Joe Mixon
72% — D'Andre Swift
68% — Mike Davis
65% — Chase Edmonds, Malcolm Brown
63% — Aaron Jones, Latavius Murray
No stat correlates more closely with Fantasy scoring at the RB position than snap rate.
Season-long leaders:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 4, 2021
91% — Najee
88% — Zeke
86% — Mixon, Kamara
82% — Henderson
79% — Aaron Jones
76% — Henry
74% — Montgomery, James Robinson
66% — Fournette
64% — Ekeler, D'Andre Swift
62% — Saquon, James Conner, Mike Davis
61% — Malcolm Brown
60% — Jonathan Taylor
57% — Chubb
The Rams got right back to feeding Darrell Henderson one of the best roles of any RB in the entire NFL in his first game back from injury. Also worth noting: the Dolphins continue to move away from Myles Gaskin and toward Malcolm Brown; that preference has been made especially clear when in the red zone.
Route involvement leaders at the RB position thru Week 4:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 4, 2021
81% — Najee Harris
76% — Alvin Kamara
75% — Darrell Henderson
73% — Zeke Elliott
68% — Chase Edmonds
66% — Saquon Barkley
62% — Mike Davis
61% — D'Andre Swift
60% — James Robinson
59% — Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler
A player's route involvement rate simply represents the percentage of the team's total dropbacks on which that player ran a route. So, the running backs listed above all have run a route on at least 59 percent of their team's dropbacks. Running routes is the first step towards drawing targets, which is key to unlocking Fantasy upside at the RB position.
Target per route run leaders at the RB position thru Week 4:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 4, 2021
43% — Cordarelle Patterson
33% — Kenneth Gainwell
30% — CMC
28% — Jamaal Williams
26% — D'Andre Swift, Kareem Hunt, Jonathan Taylor
25% — Damien Williams, Tony Pollard, Dalvin Cook
24% — Nyheim Hines, Najee Harris
When allowed to run routes, the above running backs have been targeted at the highest rate. For reference, James White led the position with a 35 percent TPRR rate in 2020, and only three backs were targeted on more than 30 percent of their routes. Cordarelle Patterson's rate is nearly guaranteed to come down.
The 30-30 club:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 4, 2021
(target share on the left, air yard share on the right)
37% - Brandin Cooks - 57%
36% - Davante Adams - 39%
34% - Cooper Kupp - 33%
32% - DK Metcalf - 46%
32% - Diontae Johnson - 37%
32% - Deebo Samuel - 37%
31% - Terry McLaurin - 46%
31% - DJ Moore - 38%
These receivers have shown a unique ability to dominate both the target and air yardage share.
WRs who accounted for the highest % of their team's Week 4 air yards:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 4, 2021
74% - Tyreek Hill, Terry McLaurin
69% - DK Metcalf
52% - Brandin Cooks
51% - Darnell Mooney, DeVante Parker
49% - Calvin Ridley, Diontae Johnson, Stefon Diggs
47% - Laviska Shenault, DeAndre Hopkins
45% - OBJ
Tyreek Hill, Terry McLaurin, and DK Metcalf all had their quarterbacks locked in on them as downfield targets in Week 4. Combining dominant target shares with downfield route running can lead to absolutely massive air yardage totals, as we saw from each of these alpha receivers in Week 4.
TPRR leaders continued:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 4, 2021
26% — Terry McLaurin, Tee Higgins, Calvin Ridley
25% — CeeDee Lamb, Chase Claypool
24% — Antonio Brown, Jakobi Meyers, OBJ, Marquise Brown, Hunter Renfrow, Sterling Shepard
23% — Justin Jefferson, Michael Pittman, Cole Beasley, AJB, Laviska Shenault
Target per route run (TPRR) rate correlates with Fantasy scoring at the WR position at one of the highest rates of any stat available. I covered the topic in more detail this offseason, if you are unfamiliar.
Route involvement leaders at TE thru Week 4:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 4, 2021
94% - Logan Thomas (Seals-Jones at 80% after Thomas' Week 4 injury)
91% - Darren Waller
87% - TJ Hockenson, Mark Andrews
86% - Travis Kelce
82% - Kyle Pitts
79% - George Kittle, Tyler Higbee
76% - CJ Uzomah
74% - Noah Fant, Cole Kmet
Players like T.J. Hockenson, Mark Andrews, and Kyle Pitts haven't needed a massive target per route run rate, because they are running so many routes. This type of route involvement provides massive upside for those guys if their TPRR rate rises.
Target per route run leaders at the TE position thru Week 4:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 4, 2021
25% -- Darren Waller
24% -- Dalton Schultz, Noah Fant, George Kittle
23% -- Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski
22% -- Mike Gesicki
20% -- Tyler Conklin, Mark Andrews
19% -- Zach Ertz, Kyle Pitts, TJ Hockenson
Running lots of routes and being targeted at a high rate on those routes generally leads to Fantasy production. Noah Fant ranking as high as he does on these two lists is certainly exciting.
So which underrated receiver is demanding an incredible amount of targets? And which hot Fantasy RB isn't getting the important snaps in his offense? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' What We Learned from Week 4 feature, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!
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