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Fantasy Football: What we learned from Week 10, including why Tyler Lockett is a buy-low target
Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs dug into every game from the 10th week of the NFL season and found several interesting takeaways.
Each week, SportsLine's Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs will provide a data-driven deep-dive into the usage for every team's running backs and pass-catchers. You can find full team-by-team data on snap counts, target share, routes run, red-zone usage and more for every Fantasy relevant running back, wide receiver and tight end.
Below, Gibbs covers the 10 most important storylines from Week 10 to help provide a better understanding of what we learned and how it will impact the Fantasy outlook of specific teams and players.
If you have questions about any stats, players, or situations covered or not covered in this article, feel free to reach out to Gibbs on Twitter.
Important Week 10 metrics
Running back snap rate
Week 10 RB snap rate leaders:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 15, 2021
93% — D'Andre Swift
90% — D'Ernest Johnson
88% — Najee Harris
85% — Mark Ingram
84% — Jonathan Taylor
82% — Dalvin Cook
81% — James Conner
69% — Austin Ekeler
64% — Leonard Fournette
62% — Antonio Gibson
No stat correlates more closely with Fantasy scoring at the RB position than snap rate.
Running back route involvement
Week 10 RB route involvement leaders:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 15, 2021
86% — D'Andre Swift
82% — Jame Conner
74% — D'Ernest Johnson
73% — Dalvin Cook
64% — Christian McCaffrey
63% — Mark Ingram
59% — Aaron Jones
57% — Austin Ekeler, Javonte Williams
56% — Darrel Williams, Najee Harris
50% — Jonathan Taylor
A player's route involvement rate simply represents the percentage of the team's total dropbacks on which that player ran a route. So, the running backs listed above all have run a route on at least 59 percent of their team's dropbacks. Running routes is the first step towards drawing targets, which is key to unlocking Fantasy upside at the RB position.
30% target share, 30% air yard share
Week 10's 30-30 club:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 16, 2021
(target share on the left, air yard share on the right)
46% — Stefon Diggs — 58%
37% — George Kittle — 36%
33% — Keenan Allen — 54%
32% — Marquise Brown — 33%
31% — Justin Jefferson — 54%
31% — Cooper Kupp — 32%
These receivers have shown a unique ability to dominate both the target and air yardage share.
Target per route run rate
TPRR leaders continued:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 16, 2021
25% — DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins, Hunter Renfrow, Jarvis Landry, Kadarius Toney
24% — CeeDee Lamb, Marquise Brown, Terry McLaurin, Ja'Marr Chase, Rondale Moore, Cole Beasley
23% — Justin Jefferson, Mike Williams, Jakobi Meyers, Tyler Lockett, Chase Claypool
Target per route run (TPRR) rate is one of the most important stats available for evaluating pass-catchers in Fantasy. I wrote about it in more detail here, if you are unfamiliar with the stat.
Air yards
Week 10's 30-30 club:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 16, 2021
(target share on the left, air yard share on the right)
46% — Stefon Diggs — 58%
37% — George Kittle — 36%
33% — Keenan Allen — 54%
32% — Marquise Brown — 33%
31% — Justin Jefferson — 54%
31% — Cooper Kupp — 32%
Tight end target per route run rate
Target per route run leaders at the TE position through Week 9:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 8, 2021
24% — George Kittle
23% — Darren Waller, Mark Andrews
22% — Dan Arnold, TJ Hockenson, Travis Kelce, Kyle Pitts, Noah Fant
21% — Dalton Schultz, Zach Ertz
20% — Pat Freiermuth, Mike Gesicki, Tyler Conklin
These tight ends are being targeted at the highest rate when allowed to run routes, but that's only part of the equation when evaluating tight ends for Fantasy purposes. Understanding how often each tight end's offense allows them to actually run routes is another important piece of the puzzle.
Tight end route involvement
Week 9 route involvement leaders at the TE position:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 8, 2021
97% — Travis Kelce
96% — Evan Engram, Higbee
91% — Dalton Schultz
90% — Darren Waller
87% — Zach Ertz
83% — Mike Gesicki, Dallas Goedert
81% — Dan Arnold, Tommy Sweeney
79% — Adam Trautman
77% — Kyle Pitts
71% — Mark Andrews
So which RB saw a surprising role in Week 10? And which top tight end could be impacted by a breakthrough rookie campaign? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' What We Learned from Week 10 feature, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!
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Jacob Gibbs