Fantasy Football Week 6: Stats that matter when setting lineups, including how Zay Flowers stacks up against the Titans

If you're starting your Fantasy football draft research or scouring the Internet for Fantasy rankings, you need to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past few seasons, according to Fantasy Pros. Gibbs had the fourth-most accurate rankings in Week 4 and ranks 12th out of nearly 200 experts in terms of rankings accuracy on the year.

Now, Gibbs has projected every team's stats and shared his findings for Week 6 of the 2023 season. He provided the most important research note that he found for every team and matchup to help those setting Fantasy football lineups, building DFS lineups, or placing sports bets.

One player Gibbs is especially high on: Baltimore rookie WR Zay Flowers. The production hasn't been there for the rookie yet, but Gibbs has loved the underlying trends in Flowers' game-by-game data. A Week 6 matchup against the Titans could be exactly what the rookie speedster needs to get loose. You NEED to see Gibbs' analysis before you lock in your lineup.

So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 6? And which under-the-radar tight end could explode this week? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' analytics wraparound, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!

We're changing up the weekly content that I'll provide this year, and I'm psyched for it! This game-by-game guide is one of the new installments, along with a weekly Lineup Advice article for SportsLine members.

In this space, I'll provide game information and one key takeaway that I found when researching that matchup. Each team's implied point total and rank will be in parentheses. 

If you have further questions about any team or situation for the upcoming week, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter. If I don't see your initial message, you can find me on Wednesday live streams or on Thursday nights and Sunday mornings, when I set aside time to answer questions on Twitter. If you turn on Twitter notifications for my account, you'll have a great chance of catching me when I'm available for questions. I'm aiming to have time to take questions two to three times per week throughout the season.

Here's what stood out to me as I looked ahead to Week 6.

Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens

Over/Under -- 41.5 points (opened at 45.5, meaning bettors have aggressively hit the under this week)

Titans (19 points) -- The Ravens rank sixth in man coverage use (31%) and 11th in press coverage use (62%). They've struggled against physical X-receiver types (6-80 receiving allowed to Nico Collins in Week 1, 8-89-2 to Tee Higgins in Week 2, 9-77 to Michael Pittman in Week 3), and we just saw George Pickens put up 6-130-1 even with Marlon Humphrey back in Week 5.

DeAndre Hopkins is still out here dominating man and press coverage.

Ravens (23 points) -- Over one-fourth of Zay Flowers' routes were screens in Week 1. In Week 2, that rate fell to 12%. His screen rate hasn't been above 5% in any of the past three games.

Flowers still has a massive target share (29%) over the past three games, which is an extremely encouraging long-term data point -- even with the gimmicky schemed-up looks removed, Flowers is still drawing targets at a high rate. The expansion of his downfield route tree has resulted in air yardage shares of 47% and 40% over the past two games.

We have yet to see it result in a big Fantasy point total, but the opportunity is there.

How I'm approaching this game:

Derrick Henry is still near must-start status, even with a suboptimal matchup and usage trends both working against him. Hopkins is also nearly a must-start, but the WR position is deeper than RB this week. I have Hopkins ranked as the WR27, just behind Zay Flowers and Gabe Davis. If I end up building DFS showdown lineups for this game, Hopkins and Flowers will likely be who I use in the captain spot.

Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews are still at the top of their positions for Fantasy purposes, even though the beginning of the Todd Monken era in Baltimore has been a bummer.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders

Over/Under -- 42.5 points (opened at 42.5)

Falcons (22.5 points) -- The Commanders allowed 44 PPR points per game to the past two opposing WR1's.

Note: rookie CB Emmanuel Forbes, already responsible for 400+ receiving yards allowed, may not start in Week 6.

Commanders (20 points) -- No team uses press coverage more than the Atlanta Falcons. Top corner A.J. Terrell has 107 press coverage snaps in 2023 and has allowed just six catches for 42 scoreless yards on 14 targets when pressing the opposing receiver. Terry McLaurin's splits have been significantly better when not pressed than when facing press coverage.

How I'm approaching this game:

Kyle Pitts is one of my favorite DFS value plays in Week 6. No doubt about it, I am ready to be hurt again.

Bijan Robinson is intriguing for DFS. Teams have run on the Commanders. Robinson's Week 5 usage was concerning, and he's been far less involved than Tyler Allgeier when in scoring distance.

I am already exhausted by burning money on lineups that are sunk by the hypothetical upside that Robinson brings. If we can't bet on him being heavily involved in Atlanta's already-limited red zone rushing share, then Robinson's upside becomes almost entirely contingent on breaking explosive plays.

He's the guy to do it. But with price tags that reflect his talent, Robinson has to break multiple big plays. At this price tag, you're betting that Robinson will go off for a complete outlier of a week. I'm chilling on him when it comes to DFS exposure until we see his red zone snap rate and opportunities rise.

Perfect. That allows me to justify shifting just a little bit more exposure over to Kyle Pitts and Drake London. You got your wish, Arthur Smith. You're driving us all crazy.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

Over/Under -- 44.5 points (opened at 45.5)

Jaguars (24.25 points) -- No team uses Cover-3 more than the Colts (61%). This was the defense that we saw Calvin Ridley light up in Week 1. Ridley's first-read target share bounced back in Week 5, and he could be in store for another big game.

Colts (20.25 points) -- The Jaguars are one of the few teams that use almost as much Cover-3 (53%) as the Colts. Rookie Josh Downs has the highest target per route run rate (23.9% for Downs, compared to 21.8% for Michael Pittman) vs. Cover-3 on the year. When facing Cover-3 with Gardner Minshew at QB, Downs has a 31% TPRR rate.

How I'm approaching this game:

I'm avoiding Jonathan Taylor where I can, but I'm intrigued by just about everyone else in this game. Downs and Christian Kirk are my two favorite DFS values in Week 6. Give me some Michael Pittman, too. Travis Etienne is an awesome leverage play for tournaments. I will have a ton of exposure to this game in DFS.

Cleveland Browns vs. San Francisco 49ers

Over/Under -- 36.5 points (opened at 41.5)

Browns (13.25 points) -- This is by far the lowest point total that I've seen this year. There was probably a lower point total at some point last season, but I don't remember it. What a perfect game to follow the Colts-Jags. The weather looks terrible to top it off. Stay away!

49ers (22.75 points) -- The Niners draw another man-heavy coverage unit in Week 6. As we detailed last week (it ended up not mattering in a massive blowout W), man coverage favors the uncoverable Brandon Aiyuk. No team has used man coverage more than the Browns (39%) in 2023. Aiyuk has looked like the clear-cut WR1 for Brock Purdy with seven-straight regular season games with a target share of 25% or higher dating back to 2022.

How I'm approaching this game:

Brandon Aiyuk could get loose for a long play. You're probably starting him anywhere that you have him. Understand that there's a very real path to a low-volume game for Aiyuk, though.

I'd really rather avoid Deebo Samuel. And George Kittle is probably in your lineup if he's on your team, but I do have 10 tight ends ranked ahead of him and have no interest in using him in DFS.

There are 27 wide receivers ahead of Amari Cooper in my Week 6 rankings. Jerome Ford comes in as the RB31, Elijah Moore is the WR50, and David Njoku is the TE16. You saw how ugly it can get in this offense. The Week 6 matchup is even less inviting.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Seattle Seahawks

Over/Under -- 45 points (opened at 44.5)

Bengals (23.5 points) -- Ja'Marr Chase was not lying.

Next up is a Seahawks defense that has been torched by opposing wide receivers. No defense has allowed more open/wide open targets per game than Seattle, according to the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Seahawks (21 points) -- Teams have run all over Cincinnati. I looked up their defensive rushing metrics vs. zone-schemed runs because 67% of Kenneth Walker's rushes have been zone attempts -- somehow, the Bengals have the third-highest opponent yards per zone rush (5.16) and have actually allowed more yards per (5.43) man/gap concept run. Wild stuff.

Even with Round 2 rookie Zach Charbonnet healthy and running well, Walker has handled 71% of Seattle's RB rush attempts (10th-highest in the NFL) and 58% of the red zone RB rush attempts (1st). Walker's RB rush share was as high as ever (77%) last we saw the Seahawks in action.

How I'm approaching this game:

Walker and Tyler Lockett are particularly intriguing DFS plays at their respective price points, and DK Metcalf is in play as a contrarian option. Ja'Marr Chase is close to a locked-and-loaded cash game play on DraftKings and is firmly in play for any format on either major site.

Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon are mid-range starters that you're probably rolling with, but I'm not as excited about either as I was last week. Mixon is doing his thing -- the touchdowns surely will come at some point, but predicting when is a fool's errand and we might as well accept the fact that there are going to be underwhelming scores from Mixon on a week-to-week basis. Nothing from Burrow's tape or underlying Week 5 data indicated that he played significantly better. The matchup was perfect, he was able to connect on well-timed deep shots, and Ja'Marr Chase balled out. Burrow's Week 5 off-target rate was actually his highest single-game mark of the season. I have him ranked as the QB10 -- behind Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence, and Kirk Cousins and just ahead of Jared Goff, and Geno Smith.

Houston Texans vs. New Orleans Saints

Over/Under -- 42.5 points (opened at 43.5)

Texans (20.5 points) -- The Saints rank second in man coverage use (34%), third in press coverage (76%), and have the NFL's fourth-highest opponent average depth of target (9.22 yards). I made a thread detailing the importance of press coverage data where Nico Collins' elite 2023 data stood out.

This is nothing new for Collins. He's been better vs. man and press coverage than zone and non-press throughout his career. Since the start of 2022, Collins ranks 15th among 103 qualified receivers in yards per route run vs. man coverage, ahead of DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, and Davante Adams.

Saints (22 points) -- Houston is one of five teams with a blitz rate below 20%. When blitzed, Carr has been more likely to target Chris Olave and Michael Thomas down the field. When Carr has not been blitzed, Alvin Kamara has been targeted on an absurd 47% of his routes.

Houston's zone-heavy (85% -- tied with Seattle for the highest zone coverage rate) defense has resulted in an opponent average depth of target of only 6.5 yards (fourth-lowest).

How I'm approaching this game:

I'm into Dameon Pierce as an off-the-wall DFS value this week. He was the only Houston RB to record a rush attempt in Week 5, and he recorded 20 of them after rushing 24 times in Week 4. The matchup is brutal, and Pierce certainly isn't someone that I'm forcing into my lineups. He's my RB20 for Week 6; Brian Robinson, Alexander Mattison, and Rhamondre Stevenson all sit ahead of Pierce in my rankings.

If you have been a SportsLine member for some time, you likely ended up with a lot of Dameon Pierce this draft season. Thank you for reading and trusting me, and I'm sorry that it has not worked out so far. I remain cautiously optimistic about his outlook as his offensive line gets healthier. If you have a more nuanced flex decision to make that my rankings don't answer, please reach out to me on Twitter. I want to look out for my Pierce fam, I know it's been rough out here.

On the Saints side of things, Alvin Kamara is again a low-ceiling player but one that should be locked into your lineups in most scenarios. Kamara projects well and could pile up targets against a zone-heavy DeMeco Ryans coverage scheme, but I'd be shocked to see the Saints score more than 25-30 points in this game. And a total implosion is always in the cards for Carr. So, I rarely use Kamara in DFS. Olave is the player who I like to take chances on in DFS, but this doesn't feel like the week to do it.

Miami Dolphins vs. Carolina Panthers

Over/Under -- 47.5 points (opened at 49.5)

Dolphins (30.5 points) -- I have one running back ranked ahead of Raheem Mostert in Week 6.

Panthers (17 points) -- The Dolphins use zone coverage 71% of the time and rank first in the NFL in Cover-6 usage.

Weirdly, Adam Thielen hasn't been targeted at a high rate vs. zone coverage. He's actually been targeted at a high rate vs. man, which I guess makes sense since Carolina has no one else to win man-to-man matchups. Still, it was weird to see Thielen's target per route run rate down below 20% vs. zone.

I start with Thielen because that is where Carolina's offense has started recently. Thielen's been the only player capable of consistently moving the chains, with Chuba Hubbard chipping in on occasion. He's been Carolina's offense over the past month.

Thielen has been targeted on only 2 of 24 routes vs. Cover-6 in 2023. Bryce Young's average depth of target has fallen to 3.95 yards when facing Cover-6. He's targeted Miles Sanders and Hubbard on 43% of their routes vs. Cover-6.

I expect Thielen's Cover-6 and overall zone coverage splits to look noticeably improved after this matchup. It is noteworthy that Young has preferred dump-off options vs. zone, though. It's not exclusive to Cover-6 -- Sanders (26%) and Hubbard (25%) have the highest target per route run rates vs. zone of any qualified Panthers. 

How I'm approaching this game:

Hubbard's rushing efficiency is through the roof in Year 3, but he's never shown much of a Fantasy ceiling when given extended opportunity in the past.  

He could legitimately see 20-30 touches in this spot if the Panthers can move the chains enough to produce decent offensive play volume. Hubbard sits as the RB22 behind Pierce and Stevenson, and I could see him pushing further up the rankings by Sunday. He is a free-square for DFS cash game builds this week. You can definitely make a case for fading him in an effort to gain leverage on the field in large-field tournaments where you have to beat thousands of other lineups. I am going to do my best to not outsmart myself in this situation, though -- as tempting as fading him is from a game theory perspective, Hubbard presents by far the best point-per-dollar value at any position from a projections standpoint. Carolina's offense could center around him.

Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings

Over/Under -- 44 points (opened at 48.5)

Bears (27 points) -- The Vikings have blitzed 56% of the time in 2023. The next-highest rate is 45%, and only three teams have a rate above 40%. Justin Fields has actually been great when blitzed in 2023.

Among receivers with 50+ routes run vs. the blitz, only Stefon Diggs (4.29) and Justin Jefferson (3.78) have a higher yard per route run rate than DJ Moore (3.78) when their QB is blitzed.

Vikings (21.5 points) -- Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn have been two of the least effective wide receivers against press coverage in 2023. The Bears are one of the few defenses that has widely varied its press coverage use on a game-to-game basis. It will be interesting to see how they attack the Justin Jefferson-less Vikings. I am excited for Addison seeing an expanded opportunity against a beatable secondary, but I retain a fair amount of concern about his readiness to work as a WR1 at this point in his career.

We could see Minnesota's offense center around the ground game. Chicago has the third-highest missed tackle rate (16.1%) according to TruMedia, behind only the Broncos (16.9%) and Texans (16.3%).

How I'm approaching this game:

D.J. Moore remains affordable and is firmly in play in all DFS formats. The offense has centered around him as the season has progressed.

He and Justin Fields are on every-week stacking watch for DFS purposes, and this matchup is exciting. I will have a lot of exposure to those two and Jordan Addison, and I think that all three of Mattison, Hockenson, and Osborn are in play as well.

D'Onta Foreman is one of the best point-per-dollar tournament DFS plays, and his projected rostered rate just shrunk dramatically with news that Chuba Hubbard will start for Miles Sanders.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots

Over/Under -- 41.5 points (opened at 44.5)

Raiders (22 points) -- This Vegas passing offense has been tightly concentrated on Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Josh Jacobs. When facing man coverage, the targets concentrate even further, funneling almost entirely through Adams and Meyers.

Target per route run rate vs. man coverage

39% -- Adams
29% -- Meyers
13% -- Jacobs

Target per route run rate vs. zone coverage

37% -- Jacobs
28% -- Adams
24% -- Meyers

The Patriots use zone coverage at the sixth-lowest rate (still 63%). Any increase in man coverage is notable for Adams and Meyers, who are two of the premiere man coverage winners at the WR position over the past few years.

Patriots (19.5 points) -- 60% of Rhamondre Stevenson's rush attempts have been man/gap scheme, according to the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Only two teams have allowed more rushing yards from man/gap concept runs than the Raiders. Las Vegas has surrendered 4.3 yards per rush (4.6 on man/gap rushes), even while facing one of the easiest opposing RB schedules in the league. The Raiders have faced the Broncos, Bills, Steelers, Austin Ekeler-less Chargers, and Aaron Jones-less Packers. Of that group, the only team that uses man/gap schemed rushes as often as the Patriots is the Bills. James Cook totaled 159 yards against the Raiders while Latavius Murray and Damien Harris chipped in 64 more yards and two touchdowns.

How I'm approaching this game:

Stevenson is in play as a DFS value, but he became less appealing with Hubbard's emergence opening up more salary. Outside of that, I want zero exposure to this game.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals

Over/Under -- 48.5 points (opened at 45.5)

Rams (27.75 points) -- The Arizona Cardinals are the only team in the NFL with two cornerbacks ranked bottom-10 in PFF coverage grade.

Cardinals (20.75 points) -- The Rams are the only team in the NFL to use both Cover-4 and Cover-6 over 20% of the time, and their 30% press coverage rate is the league's lowest. This is as soft and hand-off of a coverage scheme/ as you'll find.

Josh Dobbs has targeted Marquise Brown at a high rate when facing man and press coverage and focused more on Zach Ertz and the short passing game vs. zone. Specifically, when facing Cover-4 or Cover-6, Hollywood has only been targeted on 5 of 38 routes.

How I'm approaching this game:

Emari Demercado is in play where you need him. The Rams have the eighth-highest missed tackle rate and have surrendered 121 rushing yards per game. You could roll the dice with Keaontay Ingram, but I expect the Cardinals (seven-point dogs) to be operating mostly out of the shotgun. Zach Ertz should see a ton of targets.

I moved Marquise Brown down to WR28 behind DeAndre Hopkins, Gabe Davis, Tyler Lockett, and Zay Flowers after digging into the matchup more. The volume will likely still be there if Arizona can sustain a few drives, but I don't want to bet on it.

Kyren Williams is a fine play. The matchup is exactly neutral from what I can tell, while the game script could be really nice. I like Williams a lot for DFS tournaments as a forgotten leverage play who could put lineups at a huge advantage to the field if the touchdowns come on the ground for the Rams with Stafford, Nacua, and Kupp all expected to be popular.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions

Over/Under -- 42.5 points (opened at 45.5)

Buccaneers (19.75 points) -- The Lions are one of eight teams that uses Cover-6 over 20% of the time and rank 10th overall in zone coverage use (74%). They blitz at one of the lowest rates (21%).

All of the matchup data points towards this being more of a Chris Godwin spot than a Mike Evans spot. Baker Mayfield has been aggressive in attacking down the field when blitzed, and over 40% of his attempts vs. the blitz have targeted Evans when his top receiver was healthy.

Lions (22.75 points) -- The Sun God is back.

How I'm approaching this game:

This is a brutal spot for Rachaad White. The Lions have faced Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker, and Isiah Pacheco, and still, no rusher has topped 45 yards on the ground against them.

Evans and Godwin are fine plays where you need them, but neither profiles as a top-20 option for me at the WR position. I'm actually mostly staying away from this game in DFS. St. Brown is interesting, as he may go overlooked.

New York Jets vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Over/Under -- 41 points (opened at 49.5)

Jets (17 points) -- Garrett Wilson has been targeted on 44% of his routes when his QB is blitzed in 2023. When not blitzed, Zach Wilson has targeted Wilson on only 20 of 120 routes (16.7%). The Eagles only blitz 25% (20th) of the time.

Eagles (24 points) -- The Jets have one of the 10 lowest yards per rush allowed on zone-schemed attempts but one of the 10 highest against man/gap concepts. Unfortunately, the Eagles use man/gap concepts at the second-lowest rate (25%). D'Andre Swift could get there on volume, but this is not an advantageous matchup.

And, of course, quarterbacks have avoided the Jets corners like the plague. No team has a lower wide receiver target rate against than the Jets. Swift, A.J. Brown, Jalen Hurts, and DeVonta Smith (unless you're loaded!) are locked into lineups still -- my point here is actually about Dallas Goedert. We could see targets funneled his way again as the path of least resistance.

How I'm approaching this game:

I'm staying away from this one for DFS and betting purposes. Start your studs.

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Giants

Over/Under -- 44.5 points (opened at 48)

Bills (29.5 points) -- Wink Martindale's defense is the most aggressive in the NFL, ranking near the top of the league in press coverage, man coverage, and blitz rate. Those tendencies stand to provide a boost to both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Diggs is at his best when facing zone, but his man coverage rates are still good. And his target rate has skyrocketed to 35% when Josh Allen has been blitzed.

Giants (15 points) -- Buffalo's zone-heavy scheme has resulted in the sixth-lowest opponent aDOT (6.77 yards). We could see a lot of Wan'Dale Robinson in this spot.

How I'm approaching this game:

This could be a James Cook bounce-back game. He's starting almost anywhere that I roster him, even after totaling negative rushing yardage in Week 6.

Darren Waller was finally the offensive centerpiece that we expected to see this season. He's starting for me anywhere that I roster him. Robinson is also in play in PPR formats. There are a lot of wide receivers who were drafted well above Robinson who I prefer him to when making Week 6 lineup decisions.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Dallas Cowboys

Over/Under -- 50.5 points (opened at 46.5)

Chargers (24 points) -- Dallas ranks top-10 in press coverage, man coverage, and blitz rate. All signs point towards a massive performance for Keenan Allen. Josh Palmer will likely see more downfield shots in this spot too, assuming that Justin Herbert's finger doesn't impede the aggressiveness of the passing attack.

Cowboys (26.5 points) -- The Chargers use press coverage at the sixth-highest rate and have been beaten consistently down the field by wide receivers. CeeDee Lamb has dominated press coverage.

How I'm approaching this game:

Austin Ekeler is back in our lives, and thank goodness we can stop trying to decide what to do with Joshua Kelley. Both Ekeler and Tony Pollard are top-five RBs for me in Week 6, but neither stands out as lined up for a huge game on paper.

Lamb is the player I'm going to be aggressive in targeting this week. This could be a massive bounce-back spot for him after an uncharacteristically slow start.

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