Fantasy Football Week 4: 32 stats that matter when setting lineups, including a return to WR1 status for Puka Nacua

If you're starting your Fantasy football draft research or scouring the Internet for Fantasy rankings, you need to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past few seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.

Now, Gibbs has projected every team's stats and shared his findings for Week 4 of the 2023 season. He provided the most important research note that he found for every team and matchup to help those setting Fantasy football lineups, building DFS lineups, or placing sports bets.

One player Gibbs is especially high on: Rams receiver Puka Nacua. The rookie's production dropped off a bit in Week 3, but Gibbs expects Nacua to get right back to target-hogging against a zone-heavy Colts coverage scheme. You NEED to see Gibbs' analysis before you lock in your lineup.

So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 4? And which under-the-radar tight end could explode this week? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' analytics wraparound, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!

We're changing up the weekly content that I'll provide this year, and I'm psyched for it! This game-by-game guide is one of the new installments, along with a weekly Lineup Advice article for SportsLine members.

In this space, I'll provide game information and one key takeaway that I found when researching that matchup. Each team's implied point total and rank will be in parentheses. 

If you have further questions about any team or situation for the upcoming week, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter. If I don't see your initial message, you can find me on Wednesday live streams or on Thursday nights and Sunday mornings, when I set aside time to answer questions on Twitter. If you turn on Twitter notifications for my account, you'll have a great chance of catching me when I'm available for questions. I'm aiming to have time to take questions two to three times per week throughout the season.

Here's what stood out to me as I looked ahead to Week 4.

Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals 

Over/Under -- 41 points (opened at 44, meaning bettors have aggressively hit the Under this week)

Titans (19.25 points - No. 25) -- The Bengals blitz at the fifth-highest rate (36.5%). DeAndre Hopkins has a 40% target per route run rate when Ryan Tannehill has been blitzed, up from 27% when he's not. Treylon Burks (knee) missed Thursday's practice and is looking unlikely to suit up in Week 4. Hopkins has been really inefficient and is dealing with an injury of his own (ankle), but Tannehill has fed his top receiver some massive receiving volume shares when Hopkins has been on the field.

Bengals (21.75 points - No. 18) -- The Titans have the seventh-highest situation neutral (score within six points) pass rate (63.5%). The Bengals rank third, behind only the Vikings (73.4%) and Chiefs (68.4%) in situation neutral pass rate.

This Titans defense is one of the clearest pass-funnel units in the NFL. The way to attack Tennessee is clear -- through the air. Specifically, teams have attacked aggressively down the field. The Titans have the highest opponent average depth of target in the NFL. This could be a Tee Higgins eruption spot. 

This is the premier get-right spot for passing games. We saw Deshaun Watson get there last week. If Watson can do it, I believe Joe Burrow and company can build off of their Week 3 performance.

How I'm approaching this game:

Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are interesting for DFS tournament play. Higgins specifically won't be a popular play, and neither will be rostered at rates that reflect the advantageous matchup against the Titans. If you want to really get weird, stacking Hopkins with Burrow and one or both Cincinnati receivers could be a tournament-winner if this game plays out more closely to how the oddsmakers originally (44-point over/under to open) foresaw it. Burrow, Chase, and Hopkins are the three whose price tags have departed the furthest from their Week 1 salary.

For season-long purposes, I'd rather pass on the Titans entirely. You might have to start Derrick Henry and Hopkins, but I'd really rather not. I'm not sure if the Week 3 usage that we saw for Henry was a fluke. Tyjae Spears has been excellent as a rusher and pass-blocker, and I'd expect the rookie to continue to play a large role on passing downs.

Chicago Bears vs. Denver Broncos 

Over/Under -- 46.5 points (opened at 44.5)

Bears (21.5 points - No. 21) -- Among 38 players with 150+ rush attempts since the start of the 2022 season, Khalil Herbert ranks ninth in avoided tackle rate. Justin Fields is one of the eight rushers ranked ahead of Herbert. Rookie Roschon Johnson hasn't yet posted impressive avoided tackle numbers at the NFL level, but he was one of the most difficult players to tackle in college.

Broncos (25 points - No. 9) -- Javonte Williams has just a 14% avoided tackle rate after posting an elite 31.4% rate prior to 2023. The three defenses that Williams has faced rank sixth, 10th, and 14th best in missed tackle rate. Chicken or the egg? Probably a little of both, as Williams has not looked quite like his usual explosive self after major reconstructive knee surgery.

The Bears rank 27th in missed tackle rate. Since the start of 2022, only the Houston Texans have allowed more rushing yards per game (162) than the Bears (152).

How I'm approaching this game:

I'm cautiously optimistic about the Bears. Specifically, I will be getting some DFS tournament exposure to Justin Fields and Khalil Herbert this weekend. The recipe for beating this Broncos defense calls for a heavy dose of rushing, and the Bears have the pieces to do it.

I have Fields ranked as the QB9 for Week 4, and both Chicago running backs are worth a look against Denver. Herbert hasn't found the end zone yet and the Bears haven't been nearly as run-heavy as expected, so his Fantasy output has been disappointing. Things could swing his way in Week 4, though. The Bears haven't been in many close games, but Herbert has clearly been the backfield's 1A in those situations.

I have Herbert ranked as the RB27, while Johnson checks in as the RB34. 

Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens 

Over/Under -- 40.5 points (opened at 44)

Browns (21.5 points - No. 19) -- No team has more wide receiver targets against them than the Baltimore Ravens through three weeks. The Ravens are missing several starters (Marlon Humphrey has yet to practice leading up to Week 4), and opposing quarterbacks have aggressively attacked this secondary. Opposing wide receivers haven't exactly posted huge results (Tee Higgins went for 8-89-2 in Week 2, but that's the only noteworthy performance) against the Ravens, so don't expect Deshaun Watson to produce anything exceptional for his wideouts in this spot. But do expect another heavy heaping of targets for Amari Cooper.

Cooper has balled out so far. He looks every bit as dominant as he was in 2022. When on the field, Cooper has a 31% target share, 54% air yardage share, and has accounted for 39% of Cleveland's receiving yardage. He's averaged 9.7 yards per target to Elijah Moore's 5.1 and has an explosive reception rate of 24%, up from a Browns team average of just 11%.

Ravens (19 points - No. 27) -- Cleveland's defense is dominating every facet. Only the Titans (2.6) have allowed fewer yards per rush than the Browns (2.8). Cleveland also is one of just six teams with a pressure rate above 40%.

Lamar Jackson has well-documented struggles when pressured. It seems that Jackson panics when pressured. He doesn't make more mistakes -- Jackson's turnover-worthy throw rate and interception rate are both better than league average when pressured. He just seems to break down as a processor and lose his reads when under pressure. Only Zach Wilson and Deshaun Watson have a lower completion percentage than Jackson when pressured since the start of 2022.

Mark Andrews has seen his target rate spike when Jackson is blitzed, and the Browns do blitz at the 12th-highest rate (32%). But when pressured, no Baltimore pass-catcher has seen a boost. Hopefully Jackson chooses one of Andrews or Zay Flowers to lock in on in this game, because I don't trust his ability to respond to pressure and find open receivers in the regular flow of the offense.

How I'm approaching this game:

You're starting Jackson and Andrews where you have to, but I'd rather avoid the Ravens entirely. And Cooper is the only Browns player who I want to start in Week 4. I actually think that Cooper profiles as one of the strongest Week 4 DFS plays at WR. He's egregiously priced and should see double-digit targets with the potential to break a big play at any time.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders 

Over/Under -- 43.5 points (opened at 46)

Eagles (26 points - No. 4) -- The Commanders have used Cover-3 only 18.4% of the time in 2023, the lowest rate in the NFL. Cover-3 is the most-commonly used scheme, with a league average of 36%.

Since the start of 2022, Jalen Hurts ranks 25th among 33 qualifiers in passer rating vs. Cover-3, sandwiched between Russell Wilson and Baker Mayfield. When facing any coverage scheme other than Cover-3, Hurts ranks first. Both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have seen a boost when facing other coverage schemes, with the bigger boost going to Brown.

Cover-4 is the scheme that Washington uses at an unusually high rate (30%, up from the league average of 15%). When facing Cover-4 since the start of 2022, DeVonta Smith has 272 receiving yards and 2 TD to Brown's 174 and 1 on an identical target total.

Commanders (17.5 points - No. 30) -- This is as bad of a setup as Brian Robinson could draw. The Eagles have the second-highest opponent situation neutral pass rate (67%), and that rate rises to 74% when playing catch-up against Philly. Teams don't want to attack this Eagles defense on the ground. We'll likely see a lot of empty routes run by Antonio Gibson in this spot.

How I'm approaching this game:

Nothing about this rushing matchup for D'Andre Swift and the Eagles stood out to me. Washington ranks slightly below average in yards before contact allowed since the start of 2022, so Philly's line could certainly continue to clear huge rushing lanes for Swift. But, in two matchups with the Eagles in 2022, Washington allowed only 1.2 yards before contact per rush attempt. Only three opponents played Philly tougher on the ground.

I don't have any interest in this game from a DFS perspective, and I'd prefer to avoid Washington entirely for season-long purposes. They're spreading the ball around a lot, and the Commanders have one of the lowest implied team totals in Week 4.

Carolina Panthers vs. Minnesota Vikings 

Over/Under -- 46.5 points (opened at 44.5)

Panthers (21 points - No. 21) -- The Vikings rank 30th with a pressure rate of 27.7%. When not pressured, Bryce Young has fed targets to Jonathan Mingo (25% target share). The plan has been to run the offense through the rookie second-round pick, but Mingo (and Young) has looked super raw. It doesn't look all that likely that Mingo (concussion) will play in Week 4. Thielen has been 9% more likely to draw a target when Mingo hasn't been on the field.

If you remove a Week 1 game in which Thielen played through an injury, he has a 26% target share. During the preseason, before the injury, Thielen had a 33% target share when Bryce Young was in at QB. We saw Thielen pile up 14 targets in a zone-heavy matchup against the Seahawks in Week 3, and he could again serve as the offensive focal point against Seattle's softco zone schemes.

Vikings (25.5 points - No. 7) -- The Panthers have the sixth-highest opponent rush rate (52%) and fifth-highest missed tackle rate (15.7%). If you have Alexander Mattison, I think you have to start him again in Week 4.

How I'm approaching this game:

We've been rolling with Kirk Cousins in all of Minnesota's projected shootouts, but I'm not all that excited about targeting him in this spot. That's about how I feel about Jordan Addison, too. Addison's usage is trending in the right direction, but I expect Minnesota to lean on the ground game. We may see fewer three-receiver sets in this spot.

On the Carolina side of things, Thielen and Sanders are in play if you need them. You could even throw a dart at D.J. Chark. I wish that Andy Dalton was starting, as absurd as that is. Carolina produced massive play volume under Dalton's quick-hitting chain-moving quarterbacking in Week 3.

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins 

Over/Under -- 53.5 points (opened at 49.5)

Bills (28.25 points - No. 2) -- Stefon Diggs has actually seen a notable dip in production vs. press coverage since the start of 2022. His yard per route run rate drops from 2.80 when not pressed to 2.03 when facing press coverage. On average, press coverage has dropped wide receiver yard per route run production by just one percent since the start of 2022.

The Dolphins have only used press coverage 39% of the time (third-lowest) under new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. That's great news for Diggs. More great news -- the two coverage schemes that Miami uses more than usual are Cover-3 and Cover-6, and both have boosted Diggs' target and yard per route run rate historically.

Dolphins (25.25 points - No. 6) -- De'Von Achane had more first-quarter rush attempts than Raheem Mostert in Week 3. Achane had five first-half red zone opportunities to Mostert's twp. It was 3-1 in favor of Achane from inside the 10 in the first half.

The Bills have allowed 5.0 yards per rush on outside zone attempts since the start of 2022, the fourth-most in the NFL. It could be another explosive week for Achane and Mostert.

How I'm approaching this game:

We saw the Chargers run all over Miami in Week 1, but the Dolphins have fared better (vs. the Patriots and Broncos offensive lines) since then. We haven't seen the running back position targeted at a high rate vs. Miami, but that may change given the amount of zone coverage that the Dolphins use. This looks like a neutral or potentially positive matchup for James Cook, and Cook is balling out.

Dalton Kincaid's role hasn't gotten any better since Week 1. In fact, it sort of seems to be trending in the wrong direction. Things can change suddenly for explosive rookies, but we haven't seen any recent signals that an eruption is coming for Kincaid.

The game environment could be so good that any of Kincaid, Gabe Davis, or even Dawson Knox end up being strong Fantasy plays in Week 4. The 49ers are the only team with a higher implied team total than Buffalo, and no game can touch this over/under. Diggs is the only one who stands to benefit from the specific matchup against Miami's defense, but he's far from the only viable play.

All of the usual Miami players are in strong consideration in this spot, and if I'm going to go as far as to mention Dawson Knox, then I have to name drop Durham Smythe. That dude is running a lot of routes. I'd rather start him than David Njoku or Dalton Schultz.

Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers 

Over/Under -- 42.5 points (opened at 40.5)

Texans (19.75 points - No. 24) -- The Steelers have allowed 5.2 yards per rush in 2023, fourth-highest in the NFL. That rate is inflated by big runs by Christian McCaffrey and Jerome Ford, to be sure. Dameon Pierce is (was?) known to reel off big runs as the most prolific tackle breaker since entering the league. And even if you look at rushing success rate, which helps alleviate the inflationary affects of big runs, the Steelers rank just 20th. This is softest matchup on the ground that the Texans have had thus far.

Am I just coping? Is it likely over for Dameon Pierce truthers? It doesn't look good. And, really, with the Texans only implied for 19.75 points in this spot, Pierce's outlook continues to look not good. Best of luck to you if you have to roll with him. I'm starting him in a couple of spots where I have Pierce and Breece Hall on the same roster. Pain.

Steelers (22.75 points - No. 15) -- The Texans were the easiest team to run on in 2022, but things seem to be much improved already under DeMeco Ryans. Specifically, Houston has been much better against zone concept runs. The Texans have the 11th-highest success rate and eighth-lowest yards per rush allowed on zone concept rushes in 2022, and nearly 60% of Pittsburgh's rush attempts have come from zone concepts.

How I'm approaching this game:

I featured all three of C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell in this week's DFS value plays. I'd expect the Texans pass game pieces to be pretty popular for DFS purposes this week. If you want an ideal on-paper contrarian spot to take a chance on a highly-talented player, Dameon Pierce in Week 4 vs. the Steelers fits the bill.

You can roll with Najee Harris if you really have to. The Steelers are favored and have a decent-enough 22.75-point implied total. George Pickens also qualifies for an "if you really have to" designation in Week 4. I don't love the compatibility of his route tree with a zone-heavy Texans coverage scheme designed to keep everything in front of them.

I am comfortable starting Pat Freiermuth if you need to. He could pile up targets in this schematic matchup.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Los Angeles Rams 

Over/Under -- 46 points (opened at 45.5)

Colts (23.5 points - No. 11) -- The Rams defense has the third-highest missed-tackle rate.

This is, of course, also exciting news for Anthony Richardson.

Rams (22.5 points - No. 16) -- The Colts rank 28th with a pressure rate of just 29.9%.

Another matchup note that points towards a big Puka Nacua game:

How I'm approaching this game:

I am going to be aggressive in rostering Puka Nacua at a higher rate than the field for DFS purposes in Week 4. I'm hoping that there's some hesitancy to pay up for Nacua after he finally slowed down in Week 3. I was really encouraged by what we saw from Nacua in Week 3, though. The Bengals went out of their way to stop him. That is absolutely wild for a fifth-round rookie in his third game. And even with that type of defensive attention, Nacua still had a decently productive game!

Maybe the Colts will go out of their way to stop Nacua, but I find it just as likely that the pre-snap motion usage that has freed Tutu Atlwell up for several big gains will catch their attention.

Speaking of Atwell, I appear to be way lower than consensus on him this week. His expert consensus ranking on FantasyPros is WR25, I have Atwell ranked as WR32. The production that we've seen has been awesome, and Atwell has finished as a top-15 Fantasy WR in both games that did not come against the San Francisco 49ers. He's definitely in play if you need him, but I'm not starting him over Tank Dell, Nico Collins, or Adam Thielen.

Richardson, Zack Moss, and Michael Pittman are auto-starts. Josh Downs is intriguing against a zone-heavy Rams coverage scheme. He's been trending in the right direction and is up to WR46 in my rankings. I prefer Downs to Marquise Brown, DJ Chark, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Jahan Dotson.

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Over/Under -- 39.5 points (opened at 42.5)

Saints (21.75 points - No. 19) -- The NFL average situation neutral (score within six points) pass rate is 58%. Tampa Bay has a league-high 70% rate. In close games, teams have gone super pass-heavy against the Bucs.

Buccaneers (18.25 points - No. 29) -- The Saints use press coverage more than any team in the NFL, which sets up well for Chris Godwin. Mike Evans has a well-documented history of struggling vs. Marshon Lattimore's press coverage. Evans has been the featured receiver in Tampa's offense, but will we see things swing in Godwin's favor in this matchup?

How I'm approaching this game:

I will be glued to this game, because Jameis Winston is must-watch TV anytime that he gets an opportunity to shine. I have Winston ranked as the QB23 for Week 4, for what it's worth. 

I expect Alvin Kamara to step in and immediately assume as heavy of a workload as he's capable of. He's ranked as a top-20 Fantasy RB for me in Week 4. This is a soft spot for Michael Thomas to continue building momentum, too. I'd start Thomas over Terry McLaurin, Jordan Addison, Joshua Palmer, Elijah Moore, Drake London, and DJ Moore.

I don't have anything to add on Rachaad White at this point. He continues to play a Fantasy-friendly role and do little with it. The Saints present a tough matchup. Good luck.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders 

Over/Under -- 48.5 points (no change)

Chargers (27 points - No. 3) -- The Raiders are one of nine teams that has used man coverage over 30% of the time. Keenan Allen is uncoverable in man-to-man situations. His 34.3% target per route run rate vs. man coverage since the start of 2022 is the highest in the NFL.

Raiders (21.5 points - No. 18) -- The Chargers are among the easiest teams to attack on the ground, and yet their opponent situation neutral pass rate is 63.5%, the sixth-highest in the NFL.

Given the results, can you blame opposing playcallers for continuing to attack the Bolts through the air?

Davante Adams is set to ball, but don't forget about Jakobi Meyers. Stop forgetting about Jakobi Meyers! He's good! He's the WR5 in points per game in 2023!

How I'm approaching this game:

I really hope that things get better soon for those of you who roster Josh Jacobs. It could be this week against a soft Chargers run defense. If you're buying it, go ahead and check out Jacobs at depressed price tags and rostered rates in DFS this week.

The more-likely-to-hit way to exploit this game in DFS is probably to stack Davante Adams and/or Jakobi Meyers with the Chargers passing game pieces. For Herbert and company to need to produce the type of volume needed to justify using them at pretty high rostered rates, the Raiders are going to need to put points on the board. Of course, we don't know if Jimmy Garoppolo will play or not, but his target distribution has been mega-concentrated on Adams and Jakobi Meyers so far. Both players could hit sumultaneously if the target distribution doesn't change.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots 

Over/Under -- 44.5 points

Cowboys (25 points - No. 8) -- Tony Pollard is way ahead of the field in terms of scoring opportunities.

The Cowboys have fed Pollard a hard-to-believe 58 touches over the past two games. The Patriots are near the very bottom of the list of matchups that might result in better per-touch efficiency, but it seems like Pollard's efficiency will spike with some big gains at some point soon. And even if it's not this week, Pollard still brings upside through his red zone role. The matchup is brutal, of course, but the Cowboys are still implied for 25 points.

Patriots (18.5 points - No. 28) -- The Cowboys have by far the lowest opponents situation neutral (score within six points) pass rate (44%). When games are close, teams are choosing to attack this defense on the ground rather than risk negative plays against the pass rush. In all situations, score not considered, the Cowboys have an opponent rush rate of 55% (11th). The Pats produced 35 rush attempts between Rhamondre Stevenson (19) and Ezekiel Elliott (16) in Week 3, and we'll likely see a large dose of those two again in Week 4.

How I'm approaching this game:

Pollard is an interesting name to consider for DFS tournament roster construction. He'll likely have a sub-5% rostered rate, which is rare for a player with such massive weekly expected Fantasy point numbers. Outside of Pollard and CeeDee Lamb, I'd rather avoid this game. You can start Stevenson if you have to, but he fell just outside of my top-20 at the RB position for Week 4.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals 

Over/Under -- 44.5 points (opened at 43.5)

49ers (29.25 points - No. 1) -- Deebo Samuel missed all of this week's practice but was seen working to the side on Friday. He's dealing with knee and ribs issues and very well may miss this game. Since the start of 2022, George Kittle's target per route run rate rises from 17% with Samuel on the field to 26% with him off. Samuel's presence has had little impact on Brandon Aiyuk's per-route data.

Cardinals (15.25 points - No. 32) -- San Francisco's opponents have a wildly high 77% pass rate in 2023. The league average is 58%, and the next-highest rate is 73%. Even in situation neutral situations, San Fran has the fifth-highest opponent pass rate (64%).

We can expect a lot of Josh Dobbs dropbacks in this spot. And, of course, he'll be under pressure a from start to finish. The Niners have the second-highest pressure rate (42.5%), and Dobbs has leaned on his tight ends when pressured. In 30 dropbacks under pressure, Dobbs has yet to target the RB position. He's thrown a ridiculous 50% of his passes under pressure to the tight end position, up from a league average of 20%.

How I'm approaching this game:

Lock and load San Francisco's options, including Brock Purdy (QB14 for me in Week 4). For Arizona, James Conner has earned our respect. Do I want to start him against San Francisco with the Cardinals implied for 15.25 points? No way. I'd start him over Brian Robinson, though!

New York Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs 

Over/Under -- 41.5 points (opened at 50!)

Jets (16.25 points - No. 31) -- The Chiefs use press coverage at the fourth-highest rate (78%) in the NFL. Garrett Wilson crushes press coverage.

Chiefs (25.25 points - No. 7) -- Only the Patriots (7.4%) have a lower missed tackle rate than the Jets (7.7%). New York's opponents have averaged only 3.7 yards per rush in 2023.

I love what I've seen from Isiah Pacheco lately, but he looks like a touchdown-or-bust play this week.

How I'm approaching this game:

A matchup against L'Jarius Snead is no joke.

Opposing WR1's vs. the Chiefs in 2023:
71 yards -- Amon-Ra St. Brown
32 yards -- Calvin Ridley
41 yards -- DJ Moore

Wilson crushes press coverage, there's definitely upside for him to get loose in this spot. But don't mistake this for a positive matchup. I want no Jets exposure this week, ideally.

Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are the only Chiefs players that I'm trusting in Week 4. Rashee Rice's expanded role in Week 3 was fun, and he's been awesome so far. It's worth noting that he only played 36% of the snaps that Mahomes was on the field for in Week 3, though. His increased playing time was due to the blowout.

New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks 

Over/Under -- 47.5 points (opened at 49.5)

Giants (23 points - No. 14) -- The Seahawks have allowed 328 passing yards per game. Only the Chargers (337) are also above 300.

Opposing QBs vs. Seattle:

Matthew Stafford -- 334 yards
Jared Goff -- 323 yards
Andy Dalton -- 361 yards

Seahawks (24.5 points - No. 10) -- The Giants led the NFL in blitz rate by a wide margin in 2022 and are currently second with a 57% blitz rate in 2023. Geno Smith has the highest passer rating in the NFL when not blitzed, but has actually been below average when blitzed.

DK Metcalf is the Seahawk who has seen his target rate rise when Smith has been blitzed.

Target per route run rate when facing the blitz since the start of 2022:

28.4% -- DK Metcalf
23.0% -- Tyler Lockett

Target per route run rate when not facing the blitz since the start of 2022:

22.0% -- DK Metcalf
21.3% -- Tyler Lockett

How I'm approaching this game:

The Seahawks use a ton of Cover-3, which Daniel Jones has struggled with historically. But, Seattle hasn't been able to stop anybody through the air thus far. With the Giants implied for a healthy 23 points, this feels like a decent enough spot to trust Jones and Darren Waller.

For the Seahawks, I'm not using Smith-Njigba until we see signs of life. His usage and production have both been uninspiring thus far. Metcalf (WR19) and Lockett (WR21) are both locked into lineups, and Geno Smith (QB9) is a strong option as well. Kenneth Walker (RB4) is a must-start, and you could get cute with Zach Charbonnet (RB39) if you're in need of a deep flex play.

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