


NBA
Each week, we learn new information as the ever-changing Fantasy landscape at the wide receiver position reshapes itself. There are many specific usage stats that affect a wide receiver's Fantasy projection, and outside of a few players, we see those underlying usage metrics fluctuate throughout the course of a season. And the first two weeks of the season present us with a flood of new data to make sense of.
Each week, SportsLine's Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs will examine all of this new information and provide a data-driven deep dive into Sunday's games to offer a better understanding of what we learned and how it will impact the Fantasy outlook of specific teams and players.
Here, we'll look at the leaderboards in several key metrics around wide receiver usage, then share our look as whose stock is rising in falling after this weekend's action. That includes Falcons rookie Drake London. "All that we have seen Drake London do over the past year is dominate receiving volume in a way that no one else in his league is doing," according to Gibbs.
If you have questions about any stats, players, or situations covered or not covered in this article, feel free to reach out to Gibbs on Twitter.
Dropback rates -- which teams seem to want to pass the ball at the highest/lowest rates?
Dropback leaders on first down through two weeks:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 19, 2022
Above average (52%)
66% - New Orleans
65% - Washington
62% - Houston, Carolina
61% - NY Jets
60% - Seattle
Low rates:
29% - San Fran
32% - Tampa
36% - Cleveland
40% - NY Giants, Chicago
Dropback rate leaders in the first half through two weeks:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 19, 2022
Above average (62%)
73% - Washington
70% - Carolina, New York Giants
69% - Las Vegas
68% - Miami, New England, Kansas City
Low rates:
40% - San Fran
49% - Chicago
54% - Tampa, Cleveland
56% - Dallas, Atlanta, Detroit
In the tweets above, I examined team tendencies on first downs and in the first half -- the thought process behind using this subset was that it gives a true representation of what the teams would like to do. What was their plan? For teams like the Panthers and the Commanders, it was clear that the plan was to pass as often as possible. For the 49ers and Bears, the opposite was true.
Another way to get an idea of a team's intention is to look at their dropback rate when the game was still close.
Dropback rate in neutral situations (score within six points) through two weeks:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 19, 2022
Above average (61%)
80% - Baltimore
79% - Cincinnati
70% - NY Jets
68% - Las Vegas
66% - Carolina, Houston
Low rates:
39% - San Fran
42% - Chicago
54% - Cleveland, LA Rams
55% - Detroit, Atlanta
So, we have an idea of which teams really want to pass the ball at a high rate. Which teams were intentional about pushing the ball down the field? And which teams were the least aggressive?
Percentage of Week 2 passes that traveled 15+ air yards:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 19, 2022
36% - Justin Fields
29% - Tom Brady, Davis Mills
28% - Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston
Low rates:
10% - Trevor Lawrence, Geno Smith, Kyler
11% - Joe Burrow, Jacoby Brissett
12% - Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert, Cooper Rush
I believe it is important to examine both of these average depth of target stats. Let's take Tom Brady as a use case -- he had just the fourth-highest aDOT in Week 1, but he consistently attacked downfield -- only Justin Fields (who attempted just 11 passes) threw downfield at a higher rate. One or two long heaves (which often have a very low probability of resulting in a reception) can throw off aDOT data in a significant way, especially when we are examining a one-game sample. Jameis Winston's aDOT was significantly higher than Brady's, but Brady actually attacked downfield at a higher rate.
Highest Week 2 average depth of target:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 19, 2022
13.2 yards - Jameis Winston
11.0 - Justin Fields
10.8 - Lamar Jackson
9.4 - Tom Brady, Mac Jones
9.1 - Matt Ryan
Lowest:
4.8 - Jacoby Brissett
4.9 - Justin Herbert
5.0 - Kyler Murray
5.4 - Geno Smith
5.6 - Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow
This brings us to our next stat: air yardage leaders. Tracking air yards, average route depths, and average depth of target is vital to understanding how each NFL offense operates and will interact with opposing defensive schemes on a week-to-week basis.
The following teams stand out as having provided the most or fewest air yards through two weeks.
These offenses have provided the most air yardage through two weeks:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 19, 2022
827 yards - New Orleans
700 - Washington
666 - Baltimore
652 - NY Jets
622 - Miami
615 - Tampa Bay
And the fewest:
283 - Chicago
305 - Seattle
318 - NY Giants
349 - Green Bay
356 - Cleveland
375 - Carolina
A key precursor to accumulating air yardage -- actually running down the field. Displayed below are the players whose average route depth (the distance at which the initial cut on their route took place on average) stood out the most in Week 2.
Week 2 route depth standouts at WR:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 19, 2022
Above average (8.3 yards)
12 - Corey Davis, George Pickens
11.7 - Chris Olave, Jahan Dotson
11.3 - Elijah Moore
11 - Michael Thomas 👀
Low rates:
3.4 - Deebo/Curtis Samuel, Hunter Renfrow
4.2 - Greg Dortch
5.5 - Cooper Kupp, Amon-Ra St. Brown
It's difficult to draw targets at a high rate while occupying one of the NFL's deepest route trees. This context may help understand the disappointing target totals for George Pickens through his first two games.
He's playing a ton!
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 19, 2022
71 routes run on 77 PIT dropbacks through two games... the result:
- 6 targets
- 2 receptions
- 26 receiving yards
His average depth of target is 21.2 yards 🥴
On the other side of the coin, we find Deebo Samuel -- who actually finished with negative air yards in Week 2.
With Jimmy Garoppolo back at QB for Week 2, Deebo Samuel finished with:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 19, 2022
6 targets
-1 air yard
Week 2 average depth of target standouts at the WR position:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 19, 2022
Above average (10.2 yards)
25.6 yards - Chris Olave
17.4 - Scott Miller
15.2 - Jahan Dotson, Noah Brown
13.5 - Mike Williams, Terry McLaurin
Low rates:
-0.2 - Deebo
1.3 - JuJu
1.7 - Russell Gage
1.9 - Hunter Renfrow
Week 2 air yardage leaders:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 19, 2022
334 - Chris Olave
180 - Jaylen Waddle
164 - Garrett Wilson
138 - Scott Miller, Tyreek Hill
134 - Mike Williams, Courtland Sutton
132 - Corey Davis
118 - Tyler Lockett
113 - Jakobi Meyers, Nico Collins
109 - Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp
In addition to knowing which players drew massive air yardage totals, it is important to be familiar with air yardage shares. The rate version of this stat can help identify players who might break out if their offensive environment improves and produces more air yards in the future.
Week 2 air yardage share leaders:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 19, 2022
69% - Tyler Lockett, Amari Cooper
63% - Chris Olave
60% - Mike Williams
56% - CeeDee Lamb
50% - Tee Higgins, Jaylen Waddle, Sammy Watkins, Courtland Sutton
47% - Drake London
45% - Brandon Aiyuk
44% - Garrett Wilson
Speaking of rate stats, it's about time that we got to the oh-so-important target share leaderboard.
Week 2 target share leaders:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 19, 2022
48% - Drake London
40% - Cooper Kupp
39% - Courtland Sutton
38% - Jakobi Meyers, Jaylen Waddle, Mark Andrews
37% - Amari Cooper, Tyler Lockett, CeeDee Lamb
35% - Amon-Ra St. Brown
33% - Brandon Aiyuk, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave
And those who produce well in both metrics get to be part of the highly exclusive 30-30 club.
30-30 club Week 2 continued:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 19, 2022
33% - Chris Olave - 63%
33% - Brandon Aiyuk - 45%
31% - Sterling Shepard - 43%
30% - Diontae Johnson - 42%
30% - Tee Higgins - 50%
They let three rookies in! How exciting!
Let's dig into the full data on Week 2 WR usage rates.
Which WR saw super promising usage rates despite disappointing Fantasy production? And which wideout is going to have a difficult time replicating their big Week 2? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' Wide Receiver Usage Report, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!