Fantasy Football Week 1 lineup advice: Using coverage scheme data to project breakout performances

The next wave of Fantasy football matchup analysis is here, and it involves focusing on defensive coverage scheme tendencies.

SportsLine Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs put an emphasis on quarterback and receiver performance when facing specific types of coverages in 2020, and it helped him predict massive performances such as Tyreek Hill's 60.9-point performance on DraftKings in Week 12 and Davante Adams' 47.6-point performance in Week 7. In 2021, this coverage analysis pointed Gibbs towards Ja'Marr Chase and Mike Williams before their eruptions for 58.6 and 36.2 points on DraftKings, respectively, against Kansas City's man-heavy coverage scheme. This analysis also highlighted what a great spot Elijah Moore was in against a man-heavy Miami unit -- Moore's 32.6 DraftKings points in that Week 11 matchup marked his season-high.

Coverage scheme information is among the many data points that go into Gibbs's process; he uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past three seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.

Now, Gibbs has analyzed the coverage scheme matchups for every game in Week 1 and found eight spots that stand out. 

One matchup Gibbs is especially excited for: Baltimore tight end Mark Andrews against a Jets defense that uses lots of Cover 4 schemes. Lamar Jackson's splits vs. zone coverage are notably better than against man, and Andrews has seen the biggest boost against Cover 4 specifically. On the other side of the ball, Elijah Moore could get his breakout season started with a bang against a man-heavy Ravens secondary.

Gibbs also identified a schematic tendency in Cleveland's defense that bodes quite well for one of Carolina's Fantasy studs but could result in a disappointing Week 1 for the other Panther. And Cincinnati's matchup against the Steelers seems to favor one Bengal wide receiver over the other, on paper at least.

So which players stand to benefit the most from their specific schematic matchups? And which Bengals wide receiver should thrive against Pittsburgh's heavy Cover 3 usage? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' weekly Fantasy Football Man/Zone Helper, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts!

Dream matchups

Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews could both lead their position in Fantasy scoring in a Week 1 matchup against the Jets

The Jets are one of just three teams that used Cover 4 more than 20% of the time in 2021. Over 50% of the time, New York dropped into Cover 3 or Cover 4.

Lamar Jackson's passer rating vs. the league average when facing varying coverage schemes over the past two seasons:

Cover-1: -20.3%
Cover-2: +5.7%
Cover-3: -4.0%
Cover-4: +7.9%

Jackson has yet to figure out man coverage, but he's been around or above the league average against most zone schemes. Specifically, Cover-4 and Cover-2 are the schemes that we want to attack with him.

The Jets almost never use Cover-2 (1.3% of the time in 2021), but their heavy Cover-4 usage is exciting for Jackson in Week 1. Also exciting for him -- the Jets had the NFL's worst opponent passer rating when using zone coverage in 2021. New York's defense is really interesting -- they used zone coverage 71% of the time on first and second downs but only 29 percent on third and fourth downs. No team used zone coverage at a lower rate on third and fourth downs.

The Ravens ranked 5th in dropback rate on first and second downs in 2021, but were 28th on third and fourth downs. Those rates were a bit affected by game scripts -- Baltimore ranked ninth in neutral situation (score within six points) dropback rate on first and second downs, compared to 30th on third and fourth downs.

The Ravens were noticeably more likely to put the ball in Jackson's hands on early downs in 2021, and I'd expect that to again be the case with their running back room not at full strength in Week 1. That tendency aligns quite nicely with New York's zone-heavy approach on early downs.

Finally, the table is set -- let's dig into Mark Andrews's delectable data.

The data that we have on Andrews without Marquise Brown on the field is bonkers. On Baltimore dropbacks over the past three seasons where Andrews was on the field and Brown wasn't, 37% of the targets and 46 percent of the air yardage went to Andrews. He's been targeted on 31.3% of his routes with Brown off of the field during that time -- for reference, Davante Adams (32.1% in 2020) is the only player who has a single-season target per route run rate above 31.3% over the past three seasons.

The volume that Andrews has seen when playing as the clear alpha in Baltimore's offense has been comparable to the absolute best wide receivers in the NFL.

Andrews is someone that you should be targeting aggressively in DFS anytime that he isn't expected to be popular. So, in a matchup that should accentuate his per-route efficiency, Andrews is an unbelievable play with Kyle Pitts expected to be the chalk at TE.

Mark Andrews vs. Cover 4
(Career)

Target per route run rate:

27.6% -- Cover 4
24.3% -- Any other zone coverage
25.3% -- Man coverage

Yard per route run rate:

2.56 -- Cover 4
2.46 -- Any other zone coverage
1.99 -- Man coverage

Tight ends usually perform better against zone coverage than man. Andrews has been no exception, which should come as no surprise when Lamar Jackson's struggles vs. man are considered. It should be noted, however, that Andrews was targeted on 29% of his routes (on a not-insignificant 159-route sample size) and averaged 2.50 yards per route run vs. man coverage in 2021. The Ravens used him in the slot and from the perimeter far more often last year, and he showed an ability to beat man coverage within that role.

The important takeaway for this week is that Andrews's best split comes against Cover 4, which the Jets used at the third-highest rate in the NFL in 2021.

Andrews projects as the clear-cut TE1 in Week 1, and he could push well over 100 receiving yards in this game if the Jets keep it competitive enough for Baltimore to remain aggressive on early downs in picking apart New York's league-worst zone coverage.

Elijah Moore is set for an eruption this week

The best shot we have of New York keeping this game competitive comes through Elijah Moore.

Moore is the man. The data that we have on him at the collegiate level and in his first year in the pros point towards that fact. If history is any indication, big things are coming for Moore in Year 2.

Things really couldn't align much better for Moore in Week 1. The news out of Jets camp has revolved around his dominance -- it has from my biased point of view, at least -- and he doesn't have to deal with the ineptitude of Zach Wilson. All that Moore needs is a competent quarterback capable of dropping back and throwing the ball to a wide-open receiver -- he's always open! Moore's splits with any quarterback other than Wilson in 2021 back this notion. He only ran 38 routes with Flacco, specifically, as his QB in 2021, but Moore and Flacco made sweet music on those 38 routes. The veteran QB connected with Moore for an absurdly efficient 10-181-2 line on 13 targets (an elite 34% target per route run rate), and Corey Davis was fully healthy during that split.

In Week 1, Flacco and the Jets face a Ravens defense that ranked sixth in rush defense DVOA and allowed the league's fewest yards per rush attempt in 2021 while ranking 30th in pass DVOA and dead last in opponent yard per pass attempt. This is a clear pass funnel defense, and the Jets are likely to be forced into an aggressive aerial attack as seven-point underdogs.

The icing on top -- Baltimore used man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL in 2021. Among players who ran at least 100 routes against man coverage in 2021, here's who drew targets at a higher rate than Elijah Moore: A.J. Brown, Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Diontae Johnson, Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, and Justin Jefferson. When facing man coverage, Moore was 44% more likely to draw a target than when facing zone.

Smash the over on Moore's reception and receiving yardage props, lock him into your DFS lineups, and start him with confidence in season-long. Double-digit targets are well within reach for him in this spot.

Cleveland's league-high Cover 4 usage bodes well for Christian McCaffrey, but could delay the D.J. Moore party by a week

No team used Cover 4 more than the Cleveland Browns (25% rate) in 2021. The Browns also ranked fourth in Cover 3 rate (40%), making them the only team in the NFL to use Cover 3 or 4 on 75% of their plays -- the league average was 45.7%. Cleveland's zone-heavy scheme keeps everything in front of their secondary, forcing opponents to beat them with short passing -- only six teams had a lower opponent average depth of target (aDOT) than the Browns (7.4 yards) in 2021. This should benefit Christian McCaffrey.

Baker Mayfield's passer rating vs. Cover 3 and Cover 4 sits 10.2% below the NFL average over the past two seasons, and he's actually been slightly above the league average when facing any other coverage type. He could struggle enough to sink the entire ship for Carolina in a matchup against a defense that has become familiar with his limitations while facing Mayfield in practice for years now.

From a pure volume standpoint, McCaffrey stands out even more than usual because of the schematic fit against Cleveland, though. I would expect the Panthers to run whenever possible against a Browns defense that ranked 20th in DVOA vs. the rush and 11th vs. the pass, and when they do pass, McCaffrey should be leaned upon heavily against Cleveland's Cover 4.

Christian McCaffrey vs. Cover 4
(Career)

Target per route run rate:

29.2% -- Cover 4 (36% over the past three seasons!)
27.4% -- Any other zone coverage
22.7% -- Man coverage

The Browns are one of just six teams to use man coverage less than 20% of the time in 2021. You should probably start Christian McCaffrey in Fantasy this week.

You should also start D.J. Moore, but do note that Cleveland's defensive tendencies do not favor him.

D.J. Moore vs. Cover 4
(Career)

Target per route run rate:

22.0% -- Zone coverage
26.1% -- Man coverage

Yard per route run rate:

1.94 -- Zone coverage
2.31 -- Man coverage

It's worth noting that Moore has been more likely to draw a target against Cover 3 and 4 (career 23% target per route run rate) than Cover 2 and 6 (20%), so this isn't a truly worst-case matchup for him. Moore is an absolute baller, he's drastically underpriced on both major DFS sites, and I expect him to set the league on fire in 2022 -- I will not blame you for playing D.J. Moore this week. The matchup clearly favors McCaffrey more, so if picking anyone from a Panthers team that is implied for just 22 points, I will be picking McCaffrey.

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There might be something here

The Saints did an impressive job of slowing Kyle Pitts down in 2021, but this is a fantastic schematic matchup for him on paper.

Here's how Kyle Pitts performed in two games against the New Orleans Saints as a rookie:

Three catches on seven targets -- 9.2 DraftKings points.
Two catches on five targets -- 2.8 DraftKings points.

Things are different in 2022, though. Marcus Mariota is not a better quarterback than Matt Ryan, but he is a much better fit for Kyle Pitts.

I lead with this because the New Orleans scheme led to opponents aggressively attacking down the field in 2021. Only the Detroit Lions (8.7 yards) had a higher opponent aDOT than the Saints (8.6).

New Orleans uses man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, but unlike most man-heavy schemes, the Saints do not blitz very often. They ranked 25th in the NFL in blitz rate in 2021. This explains the high aDOT and brings us back to Pitts, whose aDOT rose from 10.2 yards against zone coverage to 14.3 yards vs. man coverage. Pitts saw his yard per route run rate rise by 14.4% when facing man coverage compared to zone, while his explosive reception rate (the percentage of targets that resulted in a gain of 15-plus yards) rose by 26.7% vs. man.

There's volatility associated with drawing deeper targets -- another empty stat line from Pitts in this spot should come as no surprise. The Falcons are implied for just 18.5 points, and we've already seen this Saints defense shut Pitts down twice.

Pitts is wildly underpriced, so it will be hard not to lock him into DFS lineups. If forced to choose one, I prefer Andrews even at the elevated price point. I plan to have exposure to both tight ends, occasionally in the same tournament lineup in an attempt to find a unique roster construction from other lineups that include Pitts or Andrews.

Kansas City's scheme and a depleted Arizona pass-catching group could result in a heavy workload for James Conner

The Chiefs have a unique schematic approach. They were one of nine teams to use man coverage on at least 35% of their defensive plays in 2021. Kansas City also used Cover 2 at the second-highest rate in the NFL. 57.6% of their defensive plays came from either Cover-2, 1, or 0, compared to a league average rate of 38%.

The other important thing to understand about Kansas City's defense -- they blitz, a lot! The Cardinals are one of just seven teams who blitzed more often than Kansas City in 2021, and Kansas City ranked fifth in pressure rate.

Kyler Murray's splits are far from encouraging in this matchup.

Kyler Murray's passer rating compared to the NFL average since 2019:

-9.1% -- when blitzed
+4.3% -- not blitzed

Kyler Murray's passer rating compared to the NFL average since 2019:

-4.9% -- vs. Cover-0, 1, and 2:
+4.1% -- vs. any other coverage scheme

23 quarterbacks have at least 400 attempts vs. Cover-0, 1, and 2 during that time -- Murray ranks 18th in passer rating within that group, sandwiched between Andy Dalton and Daniel Jones.

He could still put up a huge total in a projected shootout, but this is definitely not a good on-paper matchup for Murray.

One strange note from Arizona's data vs. Cover-0, 1, and 2 -- the league average aDOT increases by 6.1% against these coverage schemes, but Murray's has actually dropped.

An even more notable takeaway -- the Cardinals appear quite aware of Murray's limitations. When facing Cover-0, 1, or 2 in 2021, Arizona ranked 28th in dropback rate. Against any other coverage scheme, the Cardinals ranked 14th in dropback rate. The Cardinals leaned on the run to mask Murray's weakness against these coverage types.

These two points lead us to James Conner, who could be a focal point for a potentially shorthanded Arizona offense. The Cardinals ran the ball 45% of the time when facing Cover-0, 1, or 2 in 2021. Of the 160 plays against those coverage types with Conner on the field, they ran the ball 55% of the time! Between that and Kyler's aDOT drop against these coverage types, I am expecting a massive workload for Conner in Week 1.

Philadelphia's bend-but-don't-break philosophy should enable Detroit's short-yardage weapons to pile up targets

No defense was better at preventing deep passing in 2021 than Philly's zone-heavy scheme. In all situations -- neutral or not -- the Eagles had the league's lowest opponent average depth of target. On average, their opponent's targets came just 6.35 yards downfield, and that dropped to just 5.57 in neutral situations (score within six points). The next-lowest situation neutral opponent aDOT belonged to the Bucs at 6.76 yards. A discrepancy that wide is really rare!

Teams found success when attacking downfield against the Eagles -- Philly's opposing passer rating on passes that traveled 15-plus air yards was the 10th-highest in the NFL -- they just rarely chose to do it. The path of least resistance was shorter passing, and that is a-okay with Jared Goff.

Goff had the NFL's lowest aDOT (6.37 yards) in 2021, and that rate shrunk to 5.85 when facing the Eagles.

The Lions played Philly in Week 8 -- deep enough into the season that Amon-Ra St. Brown was established enough to run 33 routes, but not so deep that T.J. Hockenson and D'Andre Swift were removed from the equation quite yet. In that game, it was Hockenson -- 10 catches for 89 yards on 11 targets -- who took advantage of Philly's defensive scheme. St. Brown drew five targets and turned them into three catches for 46 yards, while  Swift (questionable entering the contest) was targeted on 5 of 27 routes before being lifted from the game.

It's anyone's guess how Detroit's targets will be dispersed with all three short-yardage threats healthy entering 2022. When healthy together in 2021, it was Swift and Hockenson who dominated the target share. And in this specific matchup, we saw Hockenson pile up the targets. Hockenson is the only Lion that I plan to have exposure to in Week 1 -- he provides a nice leverage play over lineups using St. Brown, and he's likely to carry low ownership at a TE position with plenty to like. 

Brandin Cooks poised for a big day against heavy Cover 3 coverage under new Colts coordinator Gus Bradley

Indianapolis's defense will look much different under new coordinator Gus Bradley. The most notable change will likely come in their Cover 3 usage. In 2021, Bradley's Raiders used Cover 3 on 66.8% of defensive plays. The next-highest rate was 43.7%. A discrepancy that wide is really rare!

Brandin Cooks didn't see the Raiders in 2021, but he did face three of the other five teams with a Cover 3 rate above 40%. Here's how he fared in those matchups:

9-78-1 on 14 targets (22.8 DK points vs. CLE in Week 2)
6-83-1 on 6 targets (20.3 DK points vs. LAR in Week 8)
8-101 on 11 targets (21.1 DK points vs. SEA in Week 14)

Brandin Cooks vs. Cover 3
(as a Texan)

Target per route run rate:

23.2% -- Cover 3
22.5% -- Other zone coverages
25% -- Man coverage

Yard per route run rate:

2.10 -- Cover 3
2.07 -- Other zone coverages
1.96 -- Man coverage

Cooks has been more likely to draw targets vs. man coverage, but he's been more efficient vs. zone and his splits vs. Cover 3 are slightly improved compared to his splits vs. other zone schemes. The Texans are eight-point underdogs and should be expected to pass the ball a lot against a Colts defense that is more attackable through the air than on the ground. Cooks is a near must-start in season-long leagues and an intriguing tournament play for DFS purposes. 

Tee Higgins appears could be better against Pittsburgh's coverage schemes than Ja'Marr Chase

When both players were on the field together during Ja'Marr Chase's rookie campaign, it was Tee Higgins who was more productive.

Those splits only widen when examined within the lens of Cover 3, the predominant coverage scheme of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh used Cover 3 at the NFL's third-highest rate (42.4%) in 2021, and a massive 76.5% of their coverage can be bundled into three groupings -- Cover-1, 2, and 3.

Cincinnati's 2021 per-route rates vs. varying coverage schemes:

Cover-3 (42.4% of Pittsburgh's defensive plays in 2021)

Target per route run rate -- Higgins (26.5%), Chase (23.3%)
Yard per route run rate -- Chase (2.65), Higgins (2.61)

Cover-1, 2, and 3 (76.5% of Pittsburgh's defensive plays in 2021)

Target per route run rate -- Higgins (25.1%), Chase (22.2%)
Yard per route run rate -- Chase (2.83), Higgins (2.49)

Chase is really freaking good, as evidenced by his obnoxious 2.83 yard per route run rate in a subset that isn't even about him. This is by no means a claim that this is not a matchup that Chase can succeed in -- no such matchup exists.

When both receivers were healthy against Pittsburgh in 2021, it was Higgins who shined. Chase was targeted just three times and finished with 6.9 DraftKings points, while Higgins brought in six of eight targets for 114 yards and a touchdown. Chase scored twice with Higgins sidelined against the Steelers in Week 3, but he was targeted only five times and finished with 65 yards.

Higgins is the Bengal who we should expect to see the biggest boost in this matchup. He was 19% more likely to draw a target against Cover-1, 2, or 3 than all other coverage schemes, while Chase's target per route run rate rose by just 0.5%. Both players are underpriced for Week 1, but Higgins's egregious $6,100 salary on DraftKings is the one that really stands out.

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